Not that anyone asked for it, but here's my take on yesterday:
NATIONALLY: the Dems did about as well as was reasonably expected, to slightly LESS well than was reasonably expected. House seats -- that broke about as expected. Senate seats - they ended up with one less than I expected (I thought that Florida or Mo. would be Dem wins). Governor's seats, about as expected, again, the only mild surprise to me was not winning Florida. On a personal level, I found Florida really disappointing. And I had hoped that Abrams could force a runoff in Ga. She came DAMNED close, and I think that there may continue to be some questions (litigation?) about voter suppression, because it may have been the difference-maker. We'll see. But the big takeaway in terms of change is simply the flip of the House, and that it is by enough of a margin for there to be a strong Dem coalition pursuing its agenda. Whether they'll fuck up that agenda remains to be seen. Personally, I enjoyed seeing Walker and Kobach lose.
TEXAS: Beto beat my expectations. He lost by 2.8%, I expected him to lose by 4-6%. Yeah, I wanted him to win, but this is a long game. Beto showed, for the first time in 25 years or so, that Texas can be a battleground state. But to be a battleground state, you need one REALLY important ingredient: A BATTLE. Beto showed that if the Democrats can put up a strong candidate at the top of the ballot, they can have a puncher's chance. And that chance will only improve in elections to come. I've said that Texas didn't have a legit chance of flipping until 2028-2030. I might bump that back two years, to 2026-28. To me, the telling races are State Supreme Court, because that's really a proxy for party sympathy -- 99% of people don't know anything about the candidate, they just vote the party. And the breakdown in those races is around 53.5 to 46.5. A 7 point spread. Trump beat Hillary here by 9 points.
And for less popular GOP leaders, the margin was even lower. Dan Patrick won by 4.2%. Paxton won by 3.2%. Lesson there: if you have an unlikable GOP candidate, and a reasonably likable Dem who actually campaigns, some of these offices could be winnable 4 years from now.
And let's not forget what we saw in judicial races -- statewide, major courts of appeal were a big story. A HUGE democrat flip. The 3rd court, based in Austin but extending into heavily GOP near west Texas, had 6 GOP justices yesterday. Today, it has 2, and 4 new Dem justices. Those races were all decide by 11-12 point margins. That's big.
The Texas Democrat party needs to learn from this election, and needs to not just continue its energy, but do everything it can to INCREASE it. Continue strong candidate recruitment (seriously, Beto and MJ Heger were GREAT candidates). And don't pull any more Lupe Valdez bullshit (what a waste). And contest EVERYTHING.
BUT, my Brisket takeaway: we saw quite clearly that a candidacy based on xenophobia and hatred wins (Desantis, Kemp). Expect more of it. A lot more of it. Because it works, and will continue to work. If we're comfortable having a giant tumor of hate stuck inside us, that tumor WILL kill us, sooner rather than later. It's our original sin, and eventually, it WILL kill us.