Coup aside, there was a pattern of behavior from Morales that should have given even the most sympathetic American leftist some concern. If the goal is legitimate, popularly-elected governments in Latin America with a focus on lifting people out of poverty by keeping wealth in the country, Morales should be recognized by his previous accomplishments but was trending in a way that represented an existential threat. Those two opinions can co-exist together peacefully. Use a bit of common sense and this should bother you:
1. This would have been Morales' 4th term. This was an advanced step in the "president for life" playbook.
2. His 3rd term was in direct violation of the Constitution that Morales helped create. The reasoning then was that the first term didn't count, because it began before the modern constitution was adopted. There was still popular support for him, so ok. But that is an extremely self-serving interpretation. World says "you get a hall pass here." If the standard for succession is George Washington, Morales gets a D+. Is he their FDR? On the economy, sure. Is the bloodiest war in human history currently being waged? No.
3. In 2016, there was a referendum to grant Morales a 4th term. It failed. Popular support gone. Bolivians rejected the idea of Presidente por Vida. The arguments pro Evo right now (simply MadLibs of the same phrases used to support Arbenz, the FMLN, Allende, et al in the 20th century) are not very credible with the outcome of this referendum. This situation is vastly different, and comparing them to this Bolivia situation dishonors the reality of those injustices.
4. Morales appealed to the Supreme Court, full of Evo appointees and sycophants, to abolish the term limits. Massive conflict of interests there, and not much in the way of checks and balances. As expected, they complied, justifying the decision with a flimsy and very ironic human rights argument. Alarm bells went off. The popular will of the people had been ignored. The world started watching. Everything that has happened thereafter can be labeled as illegitimate.
5. The OAS has an imperfect past, but it is the only official audit we have. Instead of attacking the source, which of these descriptions in the election are inaccurate? Let's start there.
- Morales needed at least a 10% margin or greater than 50% of the total to avoid a runoff.
- Election officials, also largely directly or indirectly pro-Morales, stopped releasing results when Morales had less than a 10% lead and less than 50% of the total. A united opposition in a later runoff election likely would have resulted in a narrow victory for Mesa, the opposition candidate. Final numbers were not released until days later. Morales declared victory with the "final numbers" which showed a margin greater than 10% and total barely over 50%, which had never been seen before. Protests ensued. At a bare minimum, this pattern of events looks pretty bad, even if the final numbers are legitimate. Why did election officials stop releasing results? The optics are terrible.
With all that said, the politicians in the US and other OECD countries need to STFU about this. Stop opining, stop expressing support, just shut up. Doing so undermines the opposition. Too much baggage here, and too much bad history in Latin America. This has all the ingredients for an organic, grassroots evolution of Bolivia's modern Democracy. Growing pains. Morales can be recognized for his accomplishments. He could have honored the referendum, given his full support to a hand-picked successor who would continue the agenda of the MAS and his own presidency, and cemented his legacy as the father of modern Bolivia with a peaceful transition of power. And we would not be here right now. There were cracks showing in Morales' base, enough to put his popular mandate at risk. People who did not want President for Life, and a Venezuela/Zimbabwe starter kit. But he started viewing himself as God-emperor (new 26 story presidential palace in the continent's poorest country?), and that got in the way. Democracy has a way of weeding that out, and it was happening organically. Let Bolivia determine Bolivia's destiny.