Let me do a little public service and slay some of this PTSD. My brother texted me last night freaking out so I ran a few numbers.
Here are current swing state results if the undecideds break exactly how they did in 2016, meaning we're assuming the exact same underestimation of rural whites in the Rust Belt, etc. "Repeat of the 2016 disaster":
Biden with 289 EVs
- Let's take that a step further and go with an "absolute nuclear worst case scenario" where Trump wins 70% of the remaining undecideds and Biden wins 0%. This is a ridiculous hypothetical that will never happen (it was 32% on average in swing states for Trump last time), but just testing the limits of Biden's leads in swing states. Biden wins with 278 EVs
- If Biden's individual state results match his polling vs. HIllary's results vs. her polling: 289 EVs
Now let's get into more realistic scenarios where the pollsters have actually changed their models to properly account for rural whites and non-college educated folks.
- If pollsters have gotten 30% more accurate than 2016: 304 EVs
- If Biden wins 65% of the undecideds, which is more in line with challenger vs. unpopular incumbent: 387 EVs
Keep in mind that ALL of the above scenarios have Biden losing Florida, because the recent R-lean polls pushed the RCP average in Trump's favor. I'm not sure that's accurate. With Florida in play those numbers get even better.
There's been a lot of concern about the whole "Trump stops Wisconsin and Pennsylvania counting at midnight before early votes are counted". Let's take a look at that, I picked Wisconsin because it was a bit of a difficult analysis that I only wanted to do once and they had better data.
In Wisconsin, based on where early votes are happening (and some other number crunching), I expect Biden to lead Trump in early voting about 779k to 718k. Given that, election day voters only are still likely to break for Biden, I've got election day going 50.2% Biden, 49.0% Trump. Not only that, but half or more of the early votes will be reported by the time election day results start coming in, because they start counting at 7am that day. I'm almost certain that Trump will never hold a lead in Wisconsin. The awesome thing about this scenario is that it puts Trump in a brutal spot. If he gets the courts to stop the counting, he'll surely lose WI because he'll be behind. And if he lets WI keep counting, then he blows up his own argument to stop counting in other states (PA, OH). He ends up in a no-win situation that royally fucks his "stop the vote" plan.
Also, on a non-math nerd practical, basis, it's probably not going to matter:
Dane County Clerk Scott McDonell is just one of many local officials trying to adjust to the situation.
“We have added a bunch of machines to help with processing so, while I think it will be a late night, I think we'll see the vast majority of the results at midnight, 1 a.m.,” McDonell said."
Votes are probably all going to be in that night, or plenty enough to give Biden a comfortable win. I suspect PA will be the same way, and we won't have that problem in Michigan because they started counting votes yesterday.
We're gonna be alright everyone. Remain calm.