Boy, I got busy yesterday and ... wow. I skipped like 30 pages, so forgive me if I'm late on something, but I got to catch up offline in any event.
Urban Meyer really is unpredictable and a bit of a flake. If it's really health, I guess it's a case of "you don't know until you have to say so" kind of thing. He still hasn't communicated directly, so nothing would shock me, but it seems obvious it's over.
There is a push-pull right now in terms of direction. I've asked repeatedly about the viability of Herman staying and no one is hedging internally anywhere that he's staying. I still think they will really fuck this up and keep him with all kinds of rationalizations. The money was there last year for him. The money was there in the spring for Shaka Smart. Both were rationalized into being kept.
Another direction is going to the "nobody ever got fired for hiring ..." premise, in which a shiny object of the P5 nature will be chased. To me, that could look a lot like the Perrin/Piece baseball debacle in which we wind up getting a whole bunch of HCs raises across the country. I'm betting that if Herman does get shitcanned, this is the circus we see and somehow wind up with a wet fart like PJ Fleck, who will crush an interview and get the admin's panties wet. Even worse, and I can't stomach this, Fat Patty gets moneywhipped with his 4 losing seasons in the last 5 years.
Then there's the "get the guy that knows how to coach and develop" premise. This would be where Matt Campbell types come into the discussion more freely. Napier at Louisiana. You guys have all shit repeatedly on Traylor at UTSA, but he'd fall into this camp. He's 7-4 this year. He wins 10 or 11 games next year, suddenly everyone's ears perk up. He's connected deeply throughout the state HS ranks. He'd bring in one of the big name DCs that he knows or is friends with like a Muschamp or Odom. Guys like Samples and Maguire would be brought in as recruiting beasts. Carrington probably stays in role. I know no one wants to hear it and it would be deflating to me as well, but I can at least understand the approach.
The NFL stuff that's been hinted at is cancer. It isn't Jeff Fisher. It also doesn't sound like it's happening, so whatever.
As usual, it sounds like Texas is above the fray (in its own mind) and probably too good for a coordinator. Maybe an interested Venables would have a shot. Seems unlikely.
I know this - the admin doesn't understand the dire state of the recruiting landscape if they get this wrong. They think they do, but they don't. They never have.