In following this thread and others, I see the sentiment is somewhat pervasive that 2021 will be a season in which expectations should be tempered. It’s not always clear to what degree, but I don’t get the impression that many folks are expecting Texas to compete for the conference title. On page 14 here alone, there’s healthy skepticism that 10 wins is a legit target without some real breaks. That implies that many do not expect Texas to be in contention for the Big 12 title, unless folks have convinced themselves that Texas will lose to ULaLa, Arky, and the bowl game.
I understand reluctance to buy-in. We’ve had a rough 11 year run and Sarkisian isn’t going to prove himself reliable until, well, he does.
In any event, there are 3 factors that, to me at least, should trump the skepticism.
1) Texas recruited well under Herman. Specifically, Texas recruited well on the DL and OL. There is talent on the roster. It’s not Bama’s or Ohio State’s roster at this time. It’s also got more raw talent on it than arguably any other roster Texas will face with the possible (probable?) exception of OU. Again, if you’re a “recruiting rankings don’t matter” guy, that’s fine. Data doesn’t support that unless coupled with coaching incompetence (see Texas specifically for the last 11 years), but, hey, it’s been a hard run on that front as a Texas fan. I get it.
2) This is the best coaching staff assembled at Texas since probably DKR, at least on paper. We can quibble over Coleman or Joseph, I guess, but a lot of coaches seem to actually think they can coach, so I’ll cross my fingers.
3) The 2021 schedule simply isn’t intimidating. Long gone are the days where we can be confident in beating the also-rans of the conference, but if Texas is ever going to ascend to the top tier again, you have to believe that Texas is going to start actually beating the teams it’s supposed to be beating, and that includes Okie State, TCU, WVU and Baylor, consistently. I expect that to start this year.