Update: Uggh!
A little long (per usual) but the situation calls for it.
Basically, as I said above, it's Tuesday morning, within about 48 hrs. of the event, which is when models get better (er, more accurate).
And they've gotten "better", but worse, in two ways: 1) colder temps, and... wait for it... 2) more precip.
Not a good recipe. Usually storms that bring in fronts do their precip thing, the front swings by, and pushes the rain out, then cold but dry hits.
Not this time.
A low sitting NW of us will come in starting the rain event, and the front will push the precip over the low, underrunning it. The storm will have enough punch to keep "precip"ing after temps start going down. Now it looks like Thursday will be a widespread frozen precip event. And, ATX is right smack dab on the border between significant icing and not so bad.
This is actually almost the exact same scenario that started the Big Freeze last year. However, the difference is that this will move out within 36 hours, not 119, and even with this blast, it won't be quite as cold in toto. But overnights through Sunday morning will be way below freezing. And... here we go... 85% of Texas will be under hard freezes/frozen precip - are you listening, grid and power producers???? If you're not out there today prepping your sites, eat a bag. (BTW, peak power usage for this one is predicted early Friday a.m., something like 77K MW (the peak last year was like 72KMW before the shut it down). But the people say they're ready, have at least 20K MW in reserve... okay, let's see how it goes). I think it'll last for this relatively brief event... if it were 4 days or more, I doubt it.
But again, things will absolutely dry out and get better starting Friday. This is a 2-day nut squeeze, not an 8 or 9. That's 100% certain (no "sneaky storms" lining up behind this next one).
This will be a short but serious event. Pipes will burst if not covered, plants, etc. Sporadic power outages due to ice causing branches or lines themselves to pop but not grid-related. Definitely have 2 day's worth of "stuff" you need. However, this is a good test for statewide power... only 2 days around us but NW Texas could be under freezing24/7 for 4 or even 5 days in the most northern and western parts. I think for Austin if we can get thru Thursday, roads will clear up Friday as it'll be dry and sunny (but cold!). Enough to get back to normal.
Again, nothing like 2021, but a brief taste. Winter Storm Watch issued for ATX region this morning. The last one issued last week was downgraded to advisory. This one I think will be upgraded to Winter Storm Warning (mostly due to icing conditions). tl;dr: Today (Tues.) - clouds/fog giving way to sun and 70°. Soak it up, you're gonna need it. This is main prep day. Why? Wed. - Because rain will start early afternoon in warm temps. Gets to the mid-60's before the front hits around dinnertime. But just rain thru midnight. Thurs. - Temps fall thru night below freezing. Any precip turns frozen by 3-4 a.m. Light precip lingers on until dinner, likely freezing rain or sleet (probably not snow, which would be oodles better, for our area). How bad it gets depends on how much precip is still around when front overtakes precip. Anything over .20" ice is the borderline for damaging ice. Temps struggle to get to 30°. Drier overnight but temps still fall, falling into the 20's - and lower. Fri. - coldest morning since last year, temps will be widespread teens most ATX region, maybe a few 20's S and E. Dry, clears, temps high 30's- hopefully. Still, should be enough pause to get the roads back. Sat. - Cold morning again, about 25°-30° around region. Hard freeze. Temps climb back to mid-40's. "Almost" back to normal. Last sub-freezing night overnight. Sun. - Temps get to 50's, Sunday overnight into Monday around but in many places above freezing. It's over.
Back as this obviously touchy weather situation changes. Prep stuff today, you can't do it if it starts raining Wed. morning, anything wet will freeze, period.
Good luck, we're not counting on you.