The general perception in this morning’s big papers here is that Biden’s statement re NS2 was an attempt to pressure Scholz publicly and that Scholz’s continued refusal to even address it by name is a strong indicator that Germany, in fact, is not prepared to kill it outside of the most extreme example of "invasion". And this sentiment is further supported by the fact that yesterday Ukrainian President Zelensky abruptly cancelled his previously scheduled meeting with a few hours notice with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on the grounds that she would not commit to killing NS2 in case of an invasion. IMO, the Zelensky cancellation is even stronger proof that that the German government has not, in fact, agreed to kill it. This has brought intense scrutiny to the crumbling Ukrainian-German relationship, with Zelensky and the Ukrainian Foreign Minister getting special scorn in some corners of the establishment.
IMO, we are treading dangerously close to a discussion that neither the US nor the German government wants to have publicly in Germany, specifically that of the sovereignty of Germany with respect to its own domestic issues such as energy supply. And while I personally understand the fact that this is by no means a purely domestic issue, it is nevertheless widely is seen to be that here. Political opponents on the right and left flanks of the centrist parties are already throwing around words like “colony”, “vassal” and “occupied”, which is, of course, silly, but which will gain traction in some degree if this is seen as the US asserting its own power to unilaterally kill a project that corporations, trade unions, and professional services providers alike all want to see come into place...and that the Germans spent billions to build. Generally speaking, overt US influence in Germany is not something that is desired, but it is something that will continue to be tolerated so long as it is not disruptive within domestic affairs, and a unilateral killing of NS2 will be seen as precisely that.
Above the fold this AM, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung addressed this as a unilateral action by the US today, and not a joint position:
On an anecdotal note, I am onsite at our corporate HQ for much of this week. As is the sacred practice of all employees in Germany, we took lunch yesterday precisely at noon at the company canteen, which is essentially the melting pot of all elements of a German company and is THE place where company gossip, politics, current events and news are discussed over inappropriately high-calorie lunches which tend to render the second half of the day fairly uncomfortable and unproductive. By pure happenstance I ended up sitting across from the head of the company’s Betriebsrat, which is essentially a government mandated “Workers Council”. This is effectively a minimum “independent” labor union that every company is required to have, even if the business itself hasn’t opted to become part of a larger Trade Union. And in companies that do have a unionized workforce, such as ours, the head of the Betriebsrat is typically a factory/laborer type employee with tight ties to the relevant industry trade union, which in our case is one of the big boys of the “Big 8” unions which make up the larger “German Trade Union Confederation”, which is the largest and most powerful union confederation in Europe. This forms the hard core of Olaf’s SPD electorate. The SPD IS trade unionism in Germany, and trade unionism IS the SPD. They are twins born from the same movement.
Anyway, I have known him for a while, so we can speak relatively freely. Our conversation of course turned to the Russia situation and I honestly couldn’t determine who was more pro-NS2…our C-Suite or the foremen on our factory floor. And that is what is so sensitive here…we often talk about German Industry and I think it is inevitable - particularly in the US - that people associate “Industry” as big monied interests with interests in lower overhead and access to Russian markets who lean on bought-and-paid for politicians. However, in the case of energy supply, that is not strictly the case. Trade Unions like IG Metall and Ver.di, which are EXTREMELY powerful in Germany are pressuring Olaf and his SPD, medium-sized business owners (of which there are a TON in Germany) which are dependent on affordable energy for proper margins are pressuring the CDU and FDP. White collar workers and corporate execs are pressuring the CDU. Rank and file commies are pushing die Linke and the far-right is pushing the AfD.
The only ones not getting any pressure from their base are the Greens, who are ultimately going to be dragged down into the dangerous single digits if energy supply gets squirrelly. And the media is pushing, of course, as they tend to have a larger degree of transatlantic tendencies due to the fact that they run in much more international, cosmopolitan circles. So what we are witnessing here is a president who is getting beaten up in the media for not being hard enough on Russia, while he is responsible to organized constituencies that have no desire to damage Germany’s own interests for Ukraine.
With respect to the Macron coverage, which I agree totally with @956 Worldwide's take, the German coverage is definitely in line with what 956 identified as the French take. The German press has given Macron really strong support this morning and have definitely fallen on the side of “progress is being made with Putin and the path of Macron should be taken seriously”, which to some degree is a backhanded way of saying “the US is exaggerating the inevitability of war.”
Here is a full translation of top story in die Welt, which is one of the major daily papers:
To me, this really does feel like the French and Germans are working in concert and preparing to throw a ton of pressure on Ukraine to re-implement elements of Minsk 2. And we will probably get some sense of that over the next week, as Macron is set to meet with Zelensky today and Scholz will see him next week. It seems that they are trying to create an image of a “third way” between the Russians and the US. And I think it is important to point out that while we understandably talk about the French and Germans in this context, there are quite a few other EU member states who are quietly avoiding the slings and arrows while hiding behind the Germans. These would also prefer to protect their own national interests over having anything to do with Ukraine. I am thinking specifically about the Italians, the Austrians, the Hungarians, the Greeks, the Croats, the Slovenes, perhaps the Spanish. Point being that a French-German attempt to placate Russian demands is not going to be isolated to those two countries and I expect there to be a more public alignment between the Franco-German position in coming weeks if this continues to draw out. Which, of course, is a benefit to Putin as the cracks within the EU and NATO are definitely showing.