I like this article but I think there are some holes in the analysis. Namely, he does not mention the bizarre, disastrous attempt by Putin and his planners to execute a too-clever by half “hybrid” massive invasion of Ukraine. Put simply, from day one this has been a poor case study of what the Russian military might do if its battlefield commanders were given a clear aim and clear instructions. This is an inevitable outcome of Putin’s political gamesmanship and attempted blackmail which doesn’t work if every soldier in the field knows that he’s getting ready to invade Ukraine.
Imagine a world where we deploy thousands of troop with all their equipment, and ships to the Persian Gulf and the border of Iraq. Then we leave them camping out for weeks at a time and tell them not to worry, it’s all just an exercise. Where no one except a few generals and political figures are allowed input into the invasion planning and in even officers are told “you’re not going.” Then a day or two out you’re told “surprise, we are invading! But no one is going to shoot back LOL.” We’d have fornicated with that canine, too and had equal issues with morale, communications, etc.
This is the end result of the smartest guy in the room thinking his oh-so genius moves in Crimea and Donbas would work on a larger scale against an enemy that had been waiting for him to try that shit again.
TL; DR the performance of the Russian military cannot be separated from the terrible and insane political assumptions and machinations that led up to its deployment. We probably overestimated it, but given a clear mission and a CINC willing to let his war fighters plan and execute, this military would look much more competent.