So, as the war moves into June this is what one random message board asshole thinks the Russians are up to and what we should do.
- I really do think that Putin believed Kyiv would fall and he’d install a puppet government that would hand over Donbas and more without real fighting.
- I think now Russia is going to try push their territorial gains to the maximum of their capability. At minimum, all of Donbas, hold onto Kherson and the southeast.
- Russia will then offer Ukraine a truce. Abandon claims to Donbas and Crimea with the status of Kherson to be negotiated. In exchange, peace and the food starts leaving Ukrainian ports. Russia will wait till later in the summer, the Kremlin will want migrants to at least begin showing up on European shores.
- Russia will play some gas brinksmanship and the migrant card to prod Germany, France, Italy, and of course Hungary and Turkey to prod Ukraine to accept the deal. They will be the ones offering a “reasonable peace” and it’s important to remember that especially France and Germany didn’t see Ukraine as a real country before the war. They’ve been pushed into solitary because they had no place to hide— but this deal will sound sensible to them. Even more sensible than Ukraine’s position.
- If it works, great for Russia. Zelenskyy’s government will soon fall, Ukraine will become even more of a basket case and ripe for exploration. If the gambit fails, Russia digs in to defensive positions, preps for a long hybrid war (kinetic in Ukraine, info/gas/cyber/migrants/food against the West) and keeps beating the “ready to talk on our terms” drum. At the very least, counting on distraction and fatigue and the propaganda war to divide NATO and leave Ukraine in a perilous state.
All of the above is a very real scenario. And this is a tough nut to crack because as the war goes on we see that Russia’s very real weaknesses and cracks can only be exploited so far. What we and Ukraine need to do:
- Remind everyone constantly that this is not a war of territory. It’s a war for survival. Russian occupation will mean ethnic cleansing and brutal repression. Ukraine needs some show trials of its own (not in the sense of pre-determined— but showing the world what Russia does). Ukraine has to make it completely unpalatable to suggest any sort of peace on Russian terms with Ukrainians behind their lines.
- We need to make clear to Russia that we will not consult with them about what what types of weapons Ukraine gets. Weapons deliveries to Ukraine will be driven by our joint assessments of their needs, our own security needs, and our own availability. Any conventional weapons are on the table regardless of capability. We can play the game ourselves, NATO is a nuclear alliance. We need to publicly state this and treat it as patently absurd that Russia would attack a nuclear Alliance over weapons deliveries or introduce nuclear weapons on a battlefield because it’s losing a war. It’s time for us to set the rules of rationality.