Even though district champs can't meet until next week in 5A on down, there are a surprising number of great matchups this week. There is also a lot less geographic diversity to these games than I'm used to, as a lot of games involve extensive travel and the teams are meeting in big metro stadiums, so this is heavily slanted to DFW and Houston. This is the time of year that I start to wish I still lived in DFW.
DFW
Arlington Martin-Lewisville @ SMU Martin probably wins the prize as the biggest bridesmaid in 6A. They're good every year (they've won 9+ games in 9 of the last 12 seasons), but they always seem to get blown out by a DFW blue blood in the playoffs. Lewisville has suddenly turned into a RB factory -- last year's starting RB is leading Oregon State in rushing, and this year's RB, junior Viron Ellison, is just as good. Martin knocked Lewisville out of the playoffs 68-0 in 2020, but the Farmers returned the favor in this round last season, 35-18. Weather's supposed to be nasty for this one, and that favors ground-and-pound teams, so give me Lewisville. Plus, their water tower cracks me up every time I drive through there.
Guyer-Highland Park @ Ford Both teams are undefeated, but HP has kind of flown under the radar. They have played a weak schedule, with Lewisville as their only really big win. Guyer has emerged unscathed from a slate that include Aledo, Lancaster, Prosper, and Allen; the 23-6 win over Prosper was their closest game. They look like the best team in the state, and I've said that S Peyton Bowen is the best player I've seen this year. I want to say that this game won't be close, but HP always seems to find some magic, although they'll need a ton of it to win this one. Game is indoors (Ford Center), so they can't even hope the weather slows down the Wildcats.
SOC-Lovejoy @ Globe Life Saturday What a fun matchup! The defending state champs have allowed only 17 points since mid-September, but their offense has been kind of a train wreck, posting only 124 total yards last week. But their defense is great -- their secondary has four D1 commits (UT, A&M, CU, and SMU). Lovejoy counters with an offense that averages over 50 ppg, and has four D1 recrcuits at WR! SOC beat Lovejoy 42-21 in the region finals last year. Lovejoy's bad D has an advantage over SOC's terrible offense, so that might be enough to get them revenge.
Frisco Reedy-Lancaster @ Irving #7 vs #4 in 5AD1. Reedy is yet another one of those new, kinda faceless Frisco schools -- their mascot is the Lions, they're blue and green, and 2016 was their first season. They did have an outstanding 2018 season, going 13-1 and losing a close one to Aledo in the 3rd round, and they're undefeated again this season. Both teams post strong Ds, with Reedy only allowing 64 rushing ypg and Lancaster also under 100. Lancaster played a much tougher schedule -- Reedy is in a huge district with all the other Frisco schools, while Lanc played SOC (21-3), Guyer (27-50) and Longview (13-21). I'll take Lancaster in a tight one.
Anna-Stephenville @ Midlothian Don't sleep on Anna -- they're 11-0, and QB Evan Bullock has 3500 yards and 51 TDs. They've beaten Celina, Aubrey, and Decatur and cruised through district play. Stephenville is a whole different animal, though, with all sorts of pedigree, including a 2021 state championship. The Yellowjackets, however, have a shockingly shitty defense that has allowed 405 points scored. They lost 38-36 to China Spring and 50-49 to Alvarado the next week. They've had wins where they allowed 42, 49, and 61. Tradition is really the only thing favoring the 'Jackets, and while that goes for a lot in HSFB, I think Anna outscores them.
Texark Pleasant Grove-Caddo Mills SATURDAY @ Ford CM is 11-0, but against a weaker schedule. They won last week 69-55 against Sanger, the type of game they seem to like to play. TPG is no longer the so-talented-it's-unfair program that they have been in the recent past, and lost to Gilmer and a 5A Louisiana team, but they're still tough and nasty enough to beat CM.
West-Mount Vernon @ Forney This is a 3AD1R2 matchup, which I'm convinced is the toughest region in all brackets in the state. West is 10-1 out of an excellent district, with their only loss 21-15 to defending champ Lorena in week 2. MV is 9-2 out of one of the best districts in the whole state, with losses to Pottsboro and Winnsboro. Defense gives an edge to West, as the Trojan D has allowed only 96 points, pitching 5 shutouts. But MV has played 15 games 3 of the last 4 seasons, beating West 24-13 in the region finals last year, so their kids will definitely be ready. Coin flip sez West gets revenge.
Coleman-Crawford @ Weatherford 11-0 Crawford is always good and always a team that's just tough to play against. They've outscored opponents 503-46 and 21-6 is their closest game. The Coleman Bluecats are really good, too -- 418-91 cumulative with losses to only undefeated Tolar and 3AD1 Llano. Should be a real slugfest, but Crawford always seems to excel in those games.
HOUSTON
Woodlands-Klein Cain @ Shenandoah Cain is a 17-14 loss to Forest away from being undefeated. They've been tested in a good district and have a solid non-district win over Summer Creek on the resume. The Highlanders got blown out by North Shore in their opener, lost 14-7 to undefeated New Caney, but cruised undefeated through a weak district. Give me Cain.
Westfield-Collins @ Tomball My biggest blind spot in the state is Spring schools and Klein schools, just because I have trouble telling them apart, but these two are probably the best of the bunch. This matchup is a lot like the previous one -- Collins was tested by a good district, including their sole loss (25-21 to Cain), and has a nice non-district win over Summer Creek, while Westfield's only loss was a blowout by NS, and they beat a bunch of tomato cans in district. I guess I should be consistent and pick Collins, but Westfield has only lost 9 games in 5 years, so who knows? Not me, but I'm gonna lean to Collins.
Summer Creek-Shadow Creek @TDECU I always mix these two up, so I propose a LOSER CHANGES NAME match like you might do in pro wrestling. Summer Creek is the Bulldogs; they're only 7-4, but their losses are to Cain, Collins, NS, and Atascocita by a total of 17 points. That may be the toughest schedule in Houston, including the Texans. Shadow Creek is the Sharks; they're the program that went to Jerryworld in their first two seasons of existence in 5A. They're undefeated this season against a relatively weak schedule. They're probably favored in this, but don't be the slightest bit surprised to see the Bulldogs pull it out.
College Station-Angleton @ Cypress CS is a great story -- the defending state finalists were decimated by graduation, then lost their stud RB to a knee injury before the season, then got blitzed by Lovejoy in the opener. But they rebounded to tie for 1st in a tough district, only losing to Georgetown. Now they get Angleton, also 9-2, and also champs of a brutal district that went 4-0 last week. The Wildcats lost to undefeated Lake Creek in the opener and Foster in district. But CS has shown more resilience than a group of 16-17 yo boys should have, so I guess I'd be stupid to pick against them.
Austin area
Lake Travis-Steele @ Pflugerville Who knows with the Cavaliers? These teams played in week 2 with Steele winning 35-28, but LT was decimated by injuries. Most of those (other than the QB) have healed, but the soph QB has now played enough games to look comfortable. The questionable LT D actually showed up big in last week's 35-10 win over big tough Round Rock, so there's a lot for Cavs fans to be optimistic about. Steele is undefeated against a good schedule (Brennan, LT, Hutto, Midland Lee-gacy, NB, Judson). They start quite a few sophs, including QB Chad Warner, who's really good even though he looks like this:
LT has gotten better but I don't think they're quite good enough to take out Steele.
Smithson Valley-Manvel @ Bastrop SV has rebounded from a couple of relatively mediocre years to look like a possible region favorite. Their only loss was in week 2 to 10-1 6A Harker Heights. They methodically punked Cedar Park 30-7 last week and have allowed only 100 total points. They haven't seen speed like Manvel will bring; the 8-3 Mavs played in that brutal district with Angleton, so they're tested. I'd expect back-and-forth early, with the Rangers eventually adjusting to speed and gaining control.
South Texas
Good ones down here, starting with the RGV-CC 2-step Friday in Corpus: PSJANorth-Miller and Vela-CC Vets in 5AD1. The Fighting Alphabets are undefeated with a cumulative scoreboard of 498-93. Miller's only loss was 38-34 to CC Vets, and they have a nice non-district win over El Campo. They also have the best player in south Texas in WR Lonnie Adkism, and I suspect PSJAN hasn't seen anyone like him and that he'll have a big game that makes the difference in a close one. CC Vets lost 2 of their first 3, but is undefeated since. They're loaded with playoff experience, 67-12 record since start of 2017. They'll face a Vela team that started the season ranked #1 in the prestigious but sporadic Helobious Poll before being shocked by PSJAN, but they have played pissed off since then, totaling 607 points on the season. My gut says Vela wins this.
GP-Alamo Heights @ Cuero TONIGHT Let's think back to the preseason, when we all laughed at AH for having 21 players suspended for buttplay hazing and then they lost to NB Canyon. They haven't lost or scored less than 48 points in a game since. G-P is 8-3 with losses to 4AD1 favorites Calallen and Boerne and a 34-36 loss to Flour Bluff, but they're looking like the old G-P teams more and more, especially last week when they blasted a pretty good Mission Vets team 64-6. This is probably my top game for tonight but AH is just on such a roll that I have trouble imagining them losing.
West Texas
Lubbock Cooper-Aledo @ Sweetwater No strangers here, as Aledo beat LC in the state semis a couple of years ago in a controversial finish, but now Aledo's in region 1. The Bearcats started 0-2, but have been ridiculously dominant since, scoring 480 in 9 straight wins. Also 9-2, Cooper thrives on old-school defensive-oriented games; they've only scored 312 all season, and have won games by scores of 17-14, 11-8, and 15-14. They're going to have to hold down Aledo to those types of numbers to win, but I don't see that happening.
Tascosa-Burlington Centennial @ WF Another matchup from the same two districts as above. Tascosa's only loss was 14-13 to 6A Permian; BC's only loss was 64-21 to Aledo. Both of these teams want to do nothing but run the ball, so this game might finish in under 2 hours. Tascosa beat 5-6 BC 28-24 last season in this round. I've been touting Tascosa all season, but BC's 56-28 win over a very good Lake Belton team last week really impressed me, so I'll go with the BC Spartans in a close one.
Bushland-Jim Ned @ Lubbock Jim Ned started the season 0-3, but those three teams are currently 31-1, and the Indians haven't lost since. Bushland looked like maybe the best team in west Texas after an 8-0 start, but then lost to Shallowater; they've won the last two by 117-18. I watched some of their game last week and the word that came to mind was "bludgeon." Big O-line, fast and shifty RBs, and that's how you win playoff games, especially in cold, windy Lubbock.
Cisco-Stratford @Woodrow GoogleMaps tells me that Woodrow is a suburb of Lubbock, and the site of Lubbock Cooper. That's a good place for a huge matchup of traditional west Texas powers. The Elks are the defending state champs and have won 23 in a row. Cisco is 9-2 with only 3-point losses to 8-3 3A Breckenridge and #1 Hawley. It's a shame they're meeting in the 2nd round, as this is a very even matchup between two great teams. Like I said above, in cold, windy Lubbock, go with the team with the bigger, more badass O-line, and that's Stratford.
Wink-Santo @ Colorado City TONIGHT Wink is undefeated and the pick of most of the DCTF staff to win the region. The Wildcats average a 51-13 score on the season. Santo's only loss was in a very good district to 10-1 Collinsville. They're fairly low-scoring, with "only" 337 points in 11 games. Long-ass road trip for Santo, 167 miles to CC, probably way more than they're used to. Wink is pretty close to the epicenter of yesterday's quake, so I wonder if they got affected by that? Gonna guess that not even an earthquake can slow down Wink, though.
East Texas
Malakoff-Winnsboro @ Tyler Two 10-1 teams. Malakoff's only loss was 21-17 to Grandview. Winnsboro's only loss was 36-35 to Pottsboro. Very even matchup again that should be happening later in the playoffs. Winnsboro has probably played a tougher schedule, but Malakoff has more playoff experience and I think that may be the difference.