I mean, a recession is going to occur at some point. I don’t think economies are exactly rollicking along. And in the end we’re never eliminating the boom-bust cycle. The global supply chain keeps taking hit after hit, and a great deal of the global wealth of the world has been fueled in part by decades of Chjnese double digit growth, which doesn’t exist any more and frankly the US is concerned enough the tensions between the countries are going to create difficulties anyway.
The truth is the people who either favor the Russian narrative for one reason or another, or who want the US to have limited international responsibilities in the first place, are always going to have a presence regardless. Either we have the political will to overcome that resistance or we don’t.
And you say Western support, but the truth is this war has transformed European thinking dramatically. The Italian Prime Minister is still actively supporting the war even when her party leader is against it. Orban from Hungary is already making noises about the limitations of aligning himself with Russia. Poland is in the midst of building the largest armed forces on the continent. Germany is raising their defense budget significantly. The Baltic states are screaming “fuck Russia” in as many ways as they can think to say it. Finland and Sweden are joining NATO. Serbia has made noises about buying Western arms.
I understand the concern, but beyond the fact I don’t believe there’s a bank contagion - there’s not the systemic issues with assets being held at an overinflated value that there was in 2008 - the only real issue in the West is the minority of Republican politicians pandering to the isolationist strain of the American body politic. That’s going to exist regardless of the state of the economy.
The biggest issue in terms of Ukrainian support right now is the 2024 presidential election, and we’re simply too far out to see how that’s going to play out. But one thing I know for sure - like 100% sure - is the vote won’t be determined by support for Ukraine or not.
That said, I’m hoping for breakthroughs as well. I’m not sure what to expect at this point, but I remain hopeful.