I don't feel like much has changed regarding ATM. They're going to concentrate spend in a few places and then be a general stalking horse for other guys.
I think momentum undulates over the course of a recruiting cycle and Texas is currently more in the ebb part of the cycle than the flow part. Not landing Gipson was a surprise to staff and those they feed.
Sarkisian and company have been pretty good at managing that in the prior cycles though. I think Texas still closes around the top 5, at least in the On3 rankings, but that almost completely depends on a very high closing rate with Black, Mack, Simmons, Baker, Wingo, and McKinley, so maybe I'm not being realistic.
I don't think Texas will land Lindsey.
I don't think winning this season will play too big of a role with the 2024 guys. Losing will, though. That's true for LSU, ATM, OU, and UF as well. So if any of those schools have an ATM 2022 kind of season, some recruits may just be swayed by picking a school that isn't surprisingly weak.