If I am looking at this with the trained eye, none of the reasons that you listed for us to win are actual reasons. It was a noble effort reminiscent of the fat girl on prom night, but here are some reasons that I think we will win:
1. Texas has the depth at DLine to withstand the Bama run focused offense. Texas is one of maybe three schools in the country that can line up and play Bama straight up in the run game. Not only do we have the front line talent, but we also have a deep rotation at the DT spot with high quality talent that can hold the point of attack. I expect to see them move some guys around and to the edges in rotation for this game to spell Burke and Sorrell including Collins, Bledsoe, Hill and maybe even Zac Swansen in a pinch. I was pleasantly surprised by Burke's toughness at the point of attack against rice. Yeah yeah, it was Rice, but Burke has surprising leverage and very quick lacross powered feet to evade blockers when needed. I saw him duck through and dodge double teams multiple times on Saturday with both guys whiffing on him completely.
2. Our defensive backfield is going to give Milroe all kinds of problems. We will be able to play any kind of defense we want to play and know that we have the dudes to execute it in the backend. None of Bama's receivers feel like a true problem, and that will allow us to lock them up more in coverage with less people committed to the pass. Catalon and Thompson will be able to take turns playing down closer to the box in run support, Barron and Watts can be used as blitzers, and we can roll back into shallow zones with Catalon, Barron, and Watts all looking in towards the QB to help on scrambles.
3. Skill position superiority. We are better than Bama at the WR, TE, and QB with a good set of complimentary running backs to what Sark wants to do. Remember last year how much Sarkisian used the RBs in the pass game? Well, Brooks, Robinson, and Blue can all execute that really effectively. Baxter has hands as well, I just don't know his availability. If he does play, he should get 20+ carries against Bama. When we line up in three wides, that is our most potent formation. You can't double any of the receivers or you will leave the middle open for Sanders. You can't play zone or Worthy and Whittington will torch it. You can't play press man or Mitchell and Worthy will beat it. If you go to a nickel or dime look, then you lighten the box and give the running game a chance to get traction.
4. Offensive Line. Yes I know, some of you just spit out your drink. Consider this.. Last year, we had two true freshman and a true sophomore starting in their second games against Bama. We held the point of attack admirably under the circumstances. Last week was bad. That means Flood and Sark are going to be all up in their asses the entire week making sure that we don't get our balls kicked right up the middle. Last year, Sark did a masterful job of scheming to take pressure off of the OLine. I expect him to do the same against them this year. I also expect our starting lineup to be Banks, Umeozulu, Majors, Hutson, Jones. Neto was just better than Robertson last week. He moved guys in the run game, and played pretty cleanly in pass pro. Hutson coming back gives more experience to the line in pass protection. We can't afford to have a hobbled Campbell to go along with a mentally struggling Campbell, but I do expect him to get more shots throughout the season. Add a year of strength and weight, and subtract a couple of first and second round picks from the defense, and I think the line has a better performance than most people think.