Heading into the 2001 season, Florida State had finished each of the prior 14 seasons in the AP top 5. That's a feat above what Alabama has accomplished over a similar period. FSU won 2 titles during that run, which is obviously eclipsed by Bama's 6.
If you had a time machine and could go back to the beginning of the 2001 season and argue online with other fans that Florida State would never finish in the top 5 again during Bowden's tenure, and they'd lose 4 games that season, 3 by double digits including once at home, and finish the season ranked a measly #15, people would have pointed at you and laughed.
"Florida State just reloads, closetojumping." "It's Bobby Bowden. They'll be fine. He's showing no signs of slowing down." "I'm not betting against FSU and Bobby Bowden."
And few folks did bet against FSU and Bobby Bowden. FSU opened the 2001 season ranked #6 in the country.
"Only #6, CTJ?"
Well, yes. But numerous magazines and pundits had them playing for it all because ... Bobby Bowden.
In reality, there were cracks starting to turn into fissures in the foundation of Bowden's program at FSU and they were about to start truly showing for all to see.
FSU had to replace a Heisman-winning QB, multiple skill and OL talents taken in the NFL draft, and the majority of their top defensive talent, also taken in the draft the prior spring. Bowden saw long-time OC, Mark Richt, take a prized job at Georgia earlier that year. Instead of going out and finding a talented up and comer to replace the OC, as Bowden had done most of the time when losing an assistant, he did something different this time. He hired his son, Jeff Bowden, because, "hey, he's Bobby Bowden."
The talent that FSU needed to simply "reload" didn't appear in the same ways as it previously did. Turns out, while they certainly still had plenty of talent, the recruiting services were bumping recruits regularly by then in FSU's favor because they were giving Bowden the benefit of the doubt. Whoops. All of those recent top 5 classes being stacked up by FSU turned out to produce more like top 20-ish classes, which is how those teams wound up finishing in the AP, if at all, over those final 9 years of Bowden.
Bobby Bowden turned 71 during that 2001 season.
closetojumping, what does any of that have to do with Alabama and Nick Saban?
Well, there is literally zero link between the two regimes. I'm not claiming there is. I'm merely pointing out that the similarities are eerie.
Nick Saban enters the 2023 season 71 years old.
Alabama this year opened the season in the top 4 of the polls. Many pundits have picked them to win or play for the national title. "Nick Saban and Alabama just reload. " "I'm not betting against Nick Saban. " "It's Nick Saban. He's showing no signs of slowing down."
Alabama entered the 2023 season having to replace 16 starters. 10 of those players were drafted in the prior spring's NFL draft. One of those starters in need of replacing was a Heisman-winning QB. Another was the best defensive player in the country.
On top of that, Saban had to replace both of his coordinators. While he didn't hire one of his children, he did make two comfort hires. He had the chance to hire Kevin Steele as his DC on two separate occasions when the role was open and Steele was on staff. Saban went in a different direction. Now he's got someone who will do what he's told.
On the offensive side, he's hired a younger guy who he's given marching orders in regard to returning the offense to a "murderball" approach in which they just crush less talented teams under the weight of their superior talent in the running game and short passing game. He thought he could do so, and was lauded for doing so by guys like Josh Pate (his murderball segment from this summer, in hindsight to those who weren't paying attention and laughing back then, will give you a laugh now) because "hey, he's Nick Saban."
But CTJ, Alabama's still stacking top 3 recruiting classes back to back for cycles on end. Last year's class was #1 in the country, for Christ's sake.
All of that is also true. That considered, show me the same ol'dynamic, Heisman-esque players at the skill positions on offense. Malik Becton was being lauded, laughably, as a coup of a pick-up from the juco ranks this summer. I don't even know if he caught a pass on Saturday. The TBs are all highly ranked and all look very pedestrian. If a freshman was good enough, they'd be playing. Look across the sidelines last Saturday and you can see that. Outside of Downs and McKinstry, who stood out on defense in the back 7? Hell, where was Oatis on the DL for most of the game? Tell me what Dallas Turner did that anyone should remember.
Did any of that look like a top 5 team to you? It shouldn't, because it isn't. Alabama could very well go 10-2 in the regular season this year, mostly because the SEC looks like 13 dwarves and Georgia. Alabama could also go 8-4 because they're not just going to out-talent UTenn, LSU, or Ole Miss.
Gravity gets even the highest flyers and, as we know, it's a shock sometimes when it happens.
It's one season, closetojumping. Bama will load up, crush it in the transfer portal, and be right back on top next season.
Maybe. But there are significant differences in the college football environment today than in the past, and Saban isn't handling them well.
1) The transfer portal requires significant money. Bama isn't the wealthiest group going after the same players.
2) Transfer players already know what they're looking for in a new team. QBs know what kind of offense they want to run, and it isn't "murderball". WRs can go anywhere. Why would one choose Bama if USC, Texas, Washington, Ohio State or Tennessee wants them? The beat goes on.
3) NIL has leveled the playing field on Saban's magical competitive advantage in high school recruiting. Bama isn't 1 of 10 bidding on the best players. Bama is 1 of 90 going after the same guys and they don't have any more money than most of those 89 other schools. SMU or TCU can outbid them for a DFW guy, let alone Texas or USC. It's harder to flourish when you can't just show up and walk over your opponent.
Texas walked into Bryant Denny and took Alabama's soul with it on the way out with a double digit win. They did the same thing when they entered the Big 12 to Nebraska.
"You want partial qualifiers or our brand and money?" "Ok, cool, no more PQs, sorry Nebraska."
Then the #3 Cornhuskers walked into the Trans World Dome in St. Louis, threw their helmets on the field and said "give us our trophy" before Texas took their soul and beat them by double digits. That was the beginning of the end for Nebraska. Alabama fans should seek a few of those fans out and get some advice from them on how to cope with all of it, because I know it would be sad to see Bama eventually decide the best answer is to just leave the conference.