early downs are a HUGE opportunity vs this OU offense. the red boxes are their SOS per FEI. OU has not been efficient in early downs. the teams they are being grouped with offensively in FEI (Washington, USC, Oregon, Michigan, UGA, Tenn) all have played schedules that are near to worse than OUs and look where those teams currently sit in this early down efficiency stat - Washington at 1, Oregon at 4, USC at 5, Tenn at 27, Michigan at 34, UGA at 37 (with a new QB!) then there is OU at 42. they should be WAY higher based on their SOS so far.
Keep in mind that group and the SOS they have played, going to do some comparison as we go through these stats.
their defense looks good on the same measure - but again they absolutely should because they have played a poor schedule lol
the Texas DL has the opportunity to win the game, OU is NOT good running the ball (99th in yards before contact on designed rushes, for comparison Bama is 107th, Rice is 133, Kansas is 38th , Baylor is 74th - Texas is 46th avg like half a yard more than OU per play) - again this is on a bad schedule. Oregon is #6, 2 other teams with baaaaaaaaad schedules in AF and Maryland are in the top 10. Tenn is #11. USC is 23. Michigan is 45.
ECKEL is a stat that looks at quality drives (big play TD or first down inside opponents 40 yard line) - Texas has the 6th most "game control" (68.9%), despite playing a much better schedule than OU (12th at 66%) - but again Michigan, Penn St, Oregon, Kansas State all rank much higher than OU on these stats showing they are more efficient/
Points per ECKEL looks at finishing Drives by the defense - Texas is #1 here. look the Texas defense is really, really, really fucking good. OU is #3.
this is all to say: OU should be better than they are statistically, especially because they have played Gabriel a lot in some of these blowouts (why is your injury prone QB playing when the score is 45-17 vs Tulsa? why is he playing in the 2nd half when you are up 47-20 vs Iowa State? he literally played every drive until the last one vs ISU with <6 min in the game) and especially when compared to some of the teams who have played comparable trash schedules.
going into some more stats, ESPN's FPI has a measure called game control rank (Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would control games from start to end the way this team did, given the schedule.)
look at the top 5 and their current SOS vs Texas:
AVGWP is Team's average in-game win probability rank adjusted for chance that an average FBS team would control games from start to end the way this team did, given the schedule. OU is #6 there, but all of the top 10 in that measure have played TRASH schedules and basically they should win vs those bad teams. Texas is #13 in that measure despite playing FPI's #16 schedule so far. the only other team in the top 30 of AVGWP who also has played a schedule even in the top 50 is ND at 10, A&M at 40 and tOSU at 50.
folks, Texas is good.
fuck OU.
Texas by a million.