Dammit, I forgot to paste in a whole section...
We're still a week away from the juiciest matchups sub-6A, but this slate is pretty damn good:
CC Miller-Vela Miller has scored 264 in the last 4 games, 678 on the season, over 70 4 times, under 50 only twice (49-10 and 35-7), so they can score. But Vela has a stout defense, and you wonder if holding Miller down to the low 40s will be enough? I think Miller blows them out in a track meet.
Westlake-Reagan The only undefeated matchup in the state this weekend. Westlake's offense can sputter at times, but their D has allowed 80 points all season. Reagan has taken advantage of a weak year in SA and an unexpectedly weak non-district schedule. Like Helo said, Marcus Wright is not walking through that door. Chaps big.
CyFair-Katy On paper, this looks like a very even matchup. Both are 10-1. Katy lost to Atascocita in week 2; CyFair lost 31-30 to Bridgeland to open the season. Both teams have wrecked everyone since. The Bobcats have UT pledge Trey Owens at QB, and he's going to have to be amazing, because we've all seen this Katy team before. Buncha fucking clones kicking everyone's asses...
Harlan-Harlingen Harlan won 10 last season and is still undefeated this year, so they're no joke. Harlingen (8-3) is not as good as they've been, so this one looks interesting.
Ryan-Abilene IMO, Ryan turned their season around by moving a WR to QB, which livened up their offense. Abilene has won 7 straight.
Spring Westfield-Klein Cain Westfield is quietly 9-2 with an 8-game winner since losing to NS. Cain's D is weak, allowing 388 points in 11 games, which should make the difference.
Lamar-Ridge Point We're all still waiting for someone in the Houston area to take over as the perennial #3 power in the area behind Katy and NS. Westfield once looked ready to do that, and both of these teams have knocked on the door. Lamar has outscored opponents 613-49, but that's a reflection of a baby-soft schedule. RP lost their first two to Westlake and Dickinson and haven't lost since, with nice wins over Hightower and George Ranch. I think they pull this off.
Forney-Lone Star Two really good 1-loss teams. Forney's only L was 13-7 to Longview, while LS lost their season opener to Texarkana back in August.
SOC-Melissa SOC is only 9-2, but their losses are to Duncanville and Desoto, both of whom are pretty good. No one else has gotten within 3 TDs. Melissa was just cruising along nicely until Lovejoy spanked them a couple of weeks ago. IIRC, I picked against SOC several times during the 2022 playoffs, including their region final games against Melissa, which they won 30-16. I'm not dumb enough to pick against them again.
Hamshire-Fannett -- H-F's only loss was to Silsbee. The bad news is that Silsbee looks like the undefeated Gobblers' best comp.
Anna-China Spring The Cougars went 31-1 in winning state the last two seasons, but they've slipped to 8-3 so far. Anna looked like the best team in 4A for awhile, but seems to have coasted lately. They're bigger and faster than CS, but I cannot imagine CS going down easy in this one.
Boerne-LaVernia I'll call the winner of this one to win 4AD1R4. LaVernia is strong and tough, as usual; the Bears lost back-to-back to Sinton and PLC, but have a huge 49-0 win over a good Beeville team recently. Boerne's on a mission to return to Jerryworld after last year's choke in the title game and I can't pick against them.
Let's throw in Lampasas-Alice! The Coyotes are 9-1 with a win over Calallen, and their only loss to CC Vets on 9/1. Lampasas is good, but probably a year away with their youth. The two best teams they've played (Wimberley and Davenport) really smacked them around. They won't be out-talented, but I think they'll get out-experienced.
West Plains-Graham Both 10-1. The second-year program from Canyon lost their season opener 47-41 to 3A power Bushland, but has slaughtered everyone else. Graham's only blemish is a 27-26 loss to Hirschi where everything went wrong. This one could be REALLY good.
Stratford-Stamford I always get these two confused. Undefeated Stratford (located NORTH of Dumas) are the Elks and they're usually the team to beat in this region, with a state title in 2021 and a couple of Jerryworld appearances in 2019 and 2017. The Stamford (N of Abilene) Bulldogs have one loss (Hawley) and they had a great 3-year run at Jerryworld (2-1) back in 2011-13; that coach returned to Stamford this season after 8 years at Lubbock Monterrey, but unfortunately, his kid who dominated at QB did not.
Edna-Jourdanton Cowboys-Indians!!! The Indians are 11-0, the 4th time they've won double figures in the last 5 seasons. Enda has a 2-OT heartbreaker to Refugio, a 21-6 loss to Goliad and a disappointing rainout with Sinton on their slightly underwhelming resume. But they got hot about this time last year and ended up winning the region, so I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see them send J-town home.
Hawley-Panhandle Really excited about this one! Hawley has a hell of a program, with a state title last season and a runner-up in 2021. They've lost to Albany and Jim Ned this season, but there's zero shame in that. Their program is built on defense, which should be handy with Panhandle coming in. The Panthers have scored 629 points, including 294 in their 4 games since their only loss (34-22 to Stratford).