General Population Growth in Georgia over the past 4 years has been 12%, given the 50% expected turnout, I'm revising the starting point of both parties +6%
Repubs - 2,557,374 Dems - 2,569,609
For non voters I am going to add 10% for day of voting so total - 918,500, above charted Dem advantage +140,617, total remainder 528k
Scenario Models:
Scenario A - Zero attrition (no party drift, Trumps absolute best case). In this scenario, of the 2020 non voters from the remainder of the state Trump wins them at a rate of 60/40 a Republican net pick up of 211,200. Trump 2,768,574 votes, Harris 2,921,466.
Scenario B - 3% attrition (Trump, thru combination of abstention of voter cross over, loses 3%). In this scenario, 2020 non voter is split 50/50 outside of the earlier rundown. His starting point is revised to 2,480,653 and picks up 264,000 in non voter for a total of 2,744,654, Harris 2,974,226.
Scenario C (the you must shit rainbows scenario) 5% attrition, Harris picks up 70% of 2020 non voters. Trump picks up 2,587,905 votes. Harris 3,079,826.
I'll run with Scenario B as my prediction. 5.71 million total votes Harris with 51ish % and a win by nearly 250k. In short, this isn't close from where I sit.