I feel confident this Texas defensive front seven is going to prison rape the Ohio State offense. I don't know about the rest of the matchups, but entering the season that to me looks like by far the biggest mismatch heading into this game.
Some points to consider:
- The shuffling of offensive linemen two weeks before the game. I'm not saying Ohio State can't have a good OL by the end of the season, but it's obvious to me they don't have any easy solutions for their starting 5, much less consistent back ups. They brought in 3 portal OL this past offseason after relying on portal guys last year. That's a strategy of desperation forced on to them by inadequate high school recruiting and development. I watched Oregon get butt fucked early in the season along their OL, but by midseason they had turned things around and really had a decent squad there. Ohio State can do the same. But they need reps, they need stability, and they're not going to have it for the season opener.
- Brian Hartline is now their OC. I don't understand what Ryan Day's role is going to be there after handing over all the responsibilities to Chip Kelly last season. I assume it's going to be something. He's a control freak (all head coaches are to some degree) but he figured out if he hired his mentor in Chip Kelly he could relinquish duties. Well, Hartline doesn't have Kelly's gravitas. He's wholly dependent on Day for his career arc, having been brought to Ohio State at the same time. How they manage their responsibilities will be something of a work in progress. Cracks in communication and the blame game aren't stress tested in the offseason. They're stress tested when things don't go well in the game, and the head person doesn't want to blame himself for the failures. Which isn't specifically a Ryan Day thing. It's a human thing. There's going to be inconsistencies in the approach, and an inability to have a convicted response when things go poorly.
- New quarterback. They're saying it's a competition, but it's not. It's going to be Sayin. Day wants to keep Kienholz engaged and put a fire under Sayin's butt. Similar to how Sarkisian handled the Card/Ewers competition, when it was always going to be Ewers. It's a pretty common coaching tactic. I don't really care. I've seen both approaches work. I think people get too worked up about this stuff. But neither of them have experience under fire. That's going to effect how well the offense runs.
- untested running backs. I assume someone they have back there is going to be uber talented. We know about Peoples from his time in HS. They like Donaldson, too. But the pair they had last year were special. I don't know how these two are going to compare to what they lost, but going into the game I'm going to assume there's at least a short term step back.
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Compare this to the other side of the LOS.
- Everyone across the country keeps talking about the edge room across the country. I'm not going to go into detail with a Texas audience. You guys could teach me about our roster there. I'm just going to say this will be the best group of edge rushers Ohio State sees all season, including the post season. In their first game. This is not going to be pretty.
- One thing that is being underestimated is our DTs. Now, this could very well be koolaid talking. It's happened to me before. Maybe we see a huge dropoff in production here from last year. The thing is, I assumed we'd see a big dropoff last year. I looked for signs of it, and was constantly complaining that early opponents had success running inside in ways that wouldn't have been possible with Murphy and Sweat in there the year before. As if it's completely normal to feature the two best DTs in the country on the same team. But the truth is, last year's DTs, while not as good individually, were in some ways better as a collective. It took me at least until midseason to begrudgingly admit I was wrong about the position in the preseason.
Well, I like this group even better. Again, this could be the koolaid talking, but I think Breverd and Watson are going to be an outstanding pair of first guys in. I feel like they are going to absolutely rag doll the OSU interior OL. But then we're bringing in Shaw and January, and there's no real drop off. Kanu gets some snaps against his former team and quickly realizes he could be playing more if he had just stayed put. Sharma does Sharma things for a few snaps. Maybe Charles gets some time. The thing is, I feel like us hardcore Texas fans view the DT position as a source of strength heading into the year that NO ONE in the national media or on the Ohio State side is giving us credit for. I feel confident the DT play is going to be one of the biggest revelations coming out of this game.
- I don't know if it should be combined with the edge players or not, but our linebacking corps is stupendous, especially in terms of being heat seeking missiles. Ty'Anthony Smith's emergence is just icing on an already well made Charlie Strong style cake. Hill is receiving as much attention as almost any defender in the country, so we're not exactly flying under the radar at this position. I just think it adds to the DLs coming dominance.
- Kwiatkowski and the rest of the defensive staff. As opposed to Ohio State, there's a lot of continuity on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the front seven. Obviously we've seen a lot of changes in the back end, but I'm not talking about our secondary matchup here. I just think a lot of players know their roles. The ones learning their roles are doing so next to players who have been in the program, led by coaches who are convicted in what they're doing and know how to successfully convey assignments. Everyone understands their chain of command. When mistakes happen there's not going to be an overt or subconscious scapegoating as to who's fault it was.
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I don't think any of this guarantees a Texas win. I like our chances heading into the game, but shit happens. Turnovers. Hostile crowd. Ohio State has amazing players. Ryan Day just won a national championship.
But I feel confident if the Buckeyes come out on top, it's going to be because they were able to overcome a complete annihilation upfront on offense.