Getting hard data on this is damn near impossible. By definition, 80-90% of the information is coming from Russian sources. The info attributed to Reuters is being parroted by everybody else. Where did Rueter's get the info? My guess is Russia. After reading the article, and half a dozen others, I don't agree with much of what was written
By my count, Ukraine has attacked half (15/30) of Russia's 30 largest refineries since Aug 2025, with ~ 76% of the capacity (~4.5 MMBpd) targeted. 13 of those targeted, mentioned specific process units were targeted and/or damaged. The video's of explosions and fires indicate there was significant damage at those facilities. Massive explosions and fires at US refineries are few and far between. The explosions and fires in Russia since August have been massive. I have not seen any factual info on the aftermath of these attacks, but I have a pretty good idea that it is anything but business as usual.
Here are a few photo's of various fires at US refineries, none of which were bombed or hit by missiles:
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I know Russia doesn't have to deal with unions, or OSHA, or personal injury lawyers, but any repairs would take a considerable amount of time, even without the sanctions. I would have more faith in a Russian commercial airliner than any repairs made to a Russian refinery in the past 2 years.
Russia's refining capacity was ~ 6,600,000 barrels/day (6.6 MMBPD), and in 2024 had in operating rate of ~ 6 MMBPD in 2024.
Russia's internal demand for petroleum products in 2024 was ~ 4 MBPD, or 67% of the refining output. In the last 2 months, Russian demand has exceeded the output.
Russia reduced, and then stopped petroleum product exports in the last 2-3 months, and has been rationing gasoline and diesel since then. That is a combination of reduced refining operations, logistics, and internal demand. I'm guessing the internal demand has dropped in the last 2 years, which makes the numbers worse.
But you don't stop one of the few sources of hard currency unless you have to, and Russia stopped exporting refined products. That is not indicative of a drop of 3 or 4%. And as you are all aware, refined products cost a lot more than the crude oil they are made from. They would still be running if they could.