Inflation reduction act (lol) seems like Manchin has totally redeemed hisself. Schumer McConnelled McConnell. Is that competent behavior out of the Dems?
I actually don't know what the attempt was I just know they started jawboning a week before the Q2 number is revealed that 'ashkuallly, technically a recession is not 2 negative gdp quarters'. My brain immediately turns off when yellen et al start trying to redefine or clarify something.
This is a weird recession, if we are in one (using the 2 consecutive neg GDP quarters...the fucking balls to try and change the way we've defined if for 80 years is something else, but I digress).
Cyclical sectors are not out of range and most are close to historical averages, meaning we aren't seeing blow outs and then declines following. residential investment as a % of GDP is slightly above average, light vehicle sales are below their average, and business fixed investment as a % of GDP is just slightly above its average. Job market is still tight. Layoffs are at 22 year lows, ratio of job openings to seekers is 2, which is historically high. Debt service ratio is currently around 9.5% which is an effective all time low when excluding the pandemic relate ratios once all the stimulus was out there. The amount of people traveling is off the charts and its all leisure. The consumer may chill in the fall but right now they are acting like they won the lottery.
I've written this before but nominally GDP is growing rapidly and our debt to GDP ratio will be reducing to 100% around 9/30. Inflation is the backdoor way the government de-levers. All those fucks (#bothsides) are getting what they want.
Here is the current Board of the OWGR that will approve or not. Jay will recuse. The others will kill it. No majors available unless you qualify from a previous victory.
PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan,
DP World Tour CEO Keith Pelley,
USGA CEO Mike Whan,
R&A CEO Martin Slumbers,
PGA of America executive director Seth Waugh,
Augusta National Golf Club executive director Will Jones and
Keith Waters, who represents the International Federation of PGA Tours.
Rule of thumb for me is if I'm playing multiple rounds, I bring my own or ship them, if it's a one round deal and not at a bucket list course then I'll rent
I'm not saying he's right or wrong, but he's given a few pieces of info that help other posers understand where he's coming from. He's an early 30's tech bro whose Dad lost his shit in Worldcom. No poster is going to change his mind given his real world experiences.
I'm long oil, both direct royalties and equities, and have been for a few years now. And I know (for sure) we have a structural supply issue globally, regardless of Russian crude, but fuck. I keep having nightmares of Twain's quote "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's the things you know for sure that just ain't so."
I looked at florida. There was (still is) some wishcasting by some folks that enough Republican florida voters would die that it would be back in play for Dems. I broke down age and race deaths and then allocated those numbers based on registered R vs D by same metrics and it didn't make a difference.
I did some back of the napkin math and posted it somewhere on this board a year or so ago. It was not going to move the needle one way or the other from an election standpoint.
Glad he can tweet because he apparently hasn't regained his ability to speak clearly. Took my father in law about 7 months post his stroke to start speaking clearly again.