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atomheartbevo

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Everything posted by atomheartbevo

  1. TLDR: Purging the rolls before the election is the easiest thing to do. ICE's biggest impact on election day, if we believe they will nab people in line or in voting areas, would not be the blue border states, but the red border states that could flip, but that strategy has its own problems. Purging the rolls beforehand (say he gets his birthright win) is easier and more rewarding for Trump and could see hundreds of thousands, but probably millions of minorities stripped of voting rights (if they get the birthright win, there's a whole lot more Trump can try after that). Of course, the blue states are mostly fighting giving their rolls over, so it'll be difficult. Leaving it up to election day runs so many risks and there is no guarantee that they can have a significant impact on the states they can operate in given how thinly scattered they would be. There's 95,000 - 100,000 voting locations in the United States (possibly a lot more). They've got something like 5,000 - 7,000 ICE agents in the field depending on how you count them (and they are having trouble "surging" another 1,500 to Minnesota). Start deploying those across multiple states and they get spread thin fast, and we know ICE prefers to operate in large numbers. For the sake of argument we will pretend that ICE will be out grabbing people randomly in line and in the voting locations and not facing resistance from the locals (including judges) and that there aren't protests tying up ICE agents. ICE doesn't operate on the interior states even if they had more agents, but we are still talking about probably 50,000 - 70,000 voting locations in the border states. Ok, so thousands of ICE agents are going to be directly used to physically go after voters in the border states. Now how many people can say 7,500 ICE agents nab (and I'm being generous, plenty of those agents are having to support the admin/detention side of ICE)? We know from footage that it takes on average 4-7 ICE agents to take down one person and they are not very fast on processing and letting these people go when they find they're innocent or having to transport them somewhere for detention, and they travel in large numbers. It's not hard to see those thousands of ICE agents being tied up for hours on end right off the bat if they grab a few thousand people (maybe even a few hundred would do it, ICE seriously prefers to group up). And that's assuming no large-scale protests that tie up ICE agents. Blue States are a waste of resources. A lot of those blue states have not turned over voting information, so they don't even know what precincts to target. That's a bit of a problem that they will have to counter by just guessing where to go. But wait, why would they even bother with blue states? Going after brown people in line for voting or in the voting booth in Minnesota or California seems kind of useless, as it does for most of the blue states, since Rs aren't going to flip those states given the numbers of people in them who are liberals. Meanwhile, all of the shit they've done now and before the election is going to get a lot more people out to vote against the Rs in those states as well, including those who normally don't because their blue votes don't matter in a sea of blue votes but who are pissed off, including many whites who won't be worried about ICE. So, there's no gain in those blue states. But what if the target is red states that could flip? Okay, so are there any border states (which includes both oceans and the Gulf of Mexico) on this map that are red and in danger of flipping and ICE can use their magical powers to have an impact on keeping minority votes down? Well, Trump clearly needs to be worried about Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida (fucking Miami flipping for the first time in almost 3 decades), and probably Wisconsin and Arizona and maybe even Michigan. All are border states so ICE can legally try and fuck around under the pretext of immigration enforcement. So, we are talking 1,000 or so ICE agents (max) in each of those red states that have millions of voters. Not a good number, but those are red states that probably turned over their voter rolls so they at least know the precincts to target. Okay, what about all of the people in those states who are shocked by ICE and don't normally vote or care to vote, what if they get out and vote or there are moderates/people on the right who decide not to show up because they don't like what's going on? That becomes its own problem. Bookmark this post and we'll come back in November and discuss just what impact ICE had. If they can suppress hundreds of thousands of votes in the red border states in danger of flipping and keep them from flipping, I'll admit I'm wrong. If Trump tries to use ICE against voters, I think it'll be in the Pennsylvania, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, and probably Wisconsin and Arizona.
  2. Which is why we should be sacrificing to multiple gods on a fairly regular basis while blasting Loreena McKennitt
  3. Wait, you didn't go race some cars, hit up a strip club and do some heroin in high school?
  4. LOL, bless your heart, you all think they are going to wait until actual election day to try and fuck around with elections, even though they don't have nearly enough agents to scatter around the country. They started trying to rig it last year by going after birthright citizenship, and I don't have faith that the Supreme Court will uphold the Constitution when it comes up in the next few weeks. If the Supreme Court gives Trump the win, one of the first things he's going to do is try and strip voting rights from those millions of people who fall into that category (and you can guess what shade the skin is of a lot of them). If it's not clear: They don't have to do shit at the polls if Trump gets the win on the birthright stuff and with a few clicks of a mouse button, directives are sent out to purge them from voting rolls.
  5. The Bath Salts aisle is making a comeback baby!
  6. At least they won't end up being eaten
  7. atomheartbevo replied to Zavala's topic in Daily Texan
    I'm guessing we gave them New York.
  8. They are absolutely executing people and making it known. Good to see he's getting played by Iran now, and not just Russia.
  9. At any of those plants there's going to be a lot of chemicals, and the drones are fairly large, but that does look pretty bad.
  10. I'm sure the Jewish people are happy about all of this, and I'm sure there's not a shitload of them in Florida who are older and vote. On a serious note, the local Jewish temple/synagogue nearby, they are having discussions about all kinds of stuff relating to what's going on, and they have hired additional security, cameras, etc. Some of them had parents or grandparents who went through the Holocaust.
  11. I don't think it's just Qatar. If we are going for regime change like it sounds like, the Iranian leadership is liable to let fly with everything. Obviously not nukes, although it would be interesting if they had any and decided to take down the Saudis or whoever.
  12. Takes effect in May. Leon was not happy last year when it was passed.
  13. I wouldn't be surprised. Trump pissed off a lot of people fucking around with Denali. It's like fucking with Mount Fuji.
  14. Always been a favorite But yeah, they are not for the weak of heart. I did 10-15 for a comedy site (not the Rotten.com stuff) and when they got their C&D we took them down. Streisand Effect though, they got passed around a lot more (we never caught any shit for the Family Circus stuff we did).
  15. He had his chance to crack down/find voter fraud already. I said this elsewhere, but I think the voter registration stuff might be related to the birthright citizenship - if they can somehow convince the Supremes to strip the citizenship of a shitload of people, and they have their names/birthdays/Social Security #s, having all of that voter registration data will make it easy for them to send out directives purging those voting rolls of those now-non-American voters. They don't have to suppress anything or send anybody in to harass people if they can just strip the birthright citizens right out of the voting process since many of the birthrights are Hispanic/minorities. Everybody is talking about the elections and sleeping on the birthright stuff - if he gets that citizenship stripped from millions of Americans, there's no need for suppression at the voting booth since it already happened.
  16. The red zone has always been for loading and unloading of passengers. There's never stopping in a white zone.
  17. I wouldn't count out all American Olympians just yet. It's the Winter Olympics, so probably a few from Minnesota.
  18. Local election officials/cities/counties/states are not going to turn over ballots to of all things, ICE. And ICE can barely handle Minneapolis, there's not enough of them to handle a larger city, and I'm fairly certain the locals in many cities will get spicey at the voting booth if ICE marches in and tries to take them. And like I said, any fuckery with this stuff and you end up with a lot of Republican officials out of office come January.
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