Everything posted by crimsonlonghorn
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
Wind's picking up at my house in Greatwood. We tried to order takeout for dinner and everything is closed.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
Nobody told anyone but the immediate coastal counties to evacuate. People in Katy and Cypress and Memorial had just seen the Katrina shitshow on sensational network news ("people are eating each other in the Superdome!") and were (unreasonably) terrified of that happening here. So decided on their own to leave, often in two cars, sometimes pulling boats and RV's, and got in the way of the people coming north from the coast and it all just clogged the shit out of the roads. Mrs CL and I were going to ride it out and both our parents kept calling every 15 minutes pleading with us to get out, and recruited other family members to call us too, so we finally did leave on Friday afternoon just to shut them up and thus began the exodus to Austin that lasted 12+ hours. By the time we got to Giddings it was clear that Rita was going to miss Houston but we had already committed and kept going. It was an enormous clusterfuck.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
Well, you gotta think in that situation that the alligator doesn’t give a shit about you and is doing the same thing you are In trying not to drown or get slammed into something hard and/or sharp.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
The wind in that graphic isn't necessarily what's steering the hurricane. Those are low level winds, just like the hurricane itself and they are still moving west. What's steering the hurricane is the upper level pattern that is rotating clockwise around the SEC-SEC-SEC. The little gap in the wind map is just a manifestation of where the edge of that clockwise rotation is above the surface. I thought this was a cool graphic this morning. The hurricane basically rotates around the ridge and then heads due east as soon as it gets to the northern edge. Check out how the wind field basically touches Mississippi on three sides for 48 hours but the center of the storm never actually gets into the state itself. Figuring out where that lefthand edge is located has been the Million Dollar Question for the past 3-4 days.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
What's important is that gap directly over the Sabine River where the winds are weaker. That's the edge of ridge that is going to pull it north.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
Sure did. As mentioned earlier, the NHC have balls of steal the way they stuck to their guns and didn't panic and send Houston into even more of a panic on its own. That one run of the Euro on Monday night was enough to get it started - had the NHC guys followed it would have been Deep Impact around here. Kudos to the American model and the American forecasters.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
I am curious what the GFS sees to give Houston slightly more rain.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
Still going to be a little stormy in Houston from over the next 24-36 hours. A hurricane that big less than 100 miles away will still cause a pretty significant pressure gradient and good winds and rain from the outer bands. Avoiding the eye means we avoided being scoured down to the concrete, but the weather will still be bad.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
All this drama the past 48 hours and all the time I spent today busting my hump in the sun getting everything prepared... and all we're going to get out of this in Sugar Land is 20 MPH wind gusts and a half inch of rain.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
Then by your own standards you are doing it wrong.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
Ike shifted east too about three days out.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
Alright kids, consensus is happening.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
People in Iraq are glad they don't live in Lubbock. My brother was in the Marines and went to Kuwait somewhere along the way and said he could have just stayed in Andrews and had the same experience.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
If I’m going west from Sugar Land, I usually take 90A all the way to Eagle Lake and then cut up to Columbus. I try to completely avoid Austin County.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
I think 40th by now?
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
Would like to thank Lamar CISD for canceling school through Monday. They’ve saved us from having any sort of effects from the hurricane now. Well done.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
Damn Chambers County is too close for comfort. That's still hurricane force wind downtown and east.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
That was really fun.... then Harvey was not so much fun directly thereafter.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
Roads are starting to back up towards the coast and also out of Beaumont. People need to be headed east and west and south and not just north.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
Cat 4 coming up that way means 140 MPH sustained winds and gusts approaching 200 MPH. Utter destruction and downed trees everywhere, especially close to the coast. Not quite as bad north in Fort Bend and Harris but still plenty bad.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
Qpo You’re right. Not as far east as I thought.
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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19
Jesus Christ the 12z GFS is back a little more East into Louisiana. That’s why the NHC didn’t move. New Euro coming in a couple of hours.