MAGA autoritarians would say, "They shouldn't have been protesting. If they hadn't been protesting they would be alive today." They would follow with, "He was within his constitutional rights to carry and defend himself"... never mind that the opposite standared was held for Alex Pretti. Wilhoit's Law always reigns supreme.
Another reason could be that he no longer has enough functioning brain cells to write a tweet so others are doing it for him. Or he can't remember what he wrote two hours previously.
I think there is a less than zero chance that the Nobel committee told Machado to give the senile old fart the medal and they would send her a new one in the mail.
The same people who look at the video and argue it was self defense are the same people who look at the videos from Jan 6 and argue it was just a tour and the capital police were inviting the protesters in.