I'm not sure how your prediction algorithm stacks up against ESPN's Matchup Predictor but IIRC ESPN's does a better job than most. Of course, if they're right and it's less than a <1%, difference neither fan base should be guaranteeing a win. Just might be one heckuva game.
Went back and watched it again. I'll split the difference with you. He clearly leapt before contact but there was also clearly contact with your guy. Whether he would have broken it without contact will never be known. Dayum it was ugly to re-watch it.
I'm not going to argue with your assessment of the victory but you all did not "knock Grier out" unless you're using it in a generic sense for any time a player leaves the game due to injury. He knocked himself out, or maybe the pylon did. I will point out Grier left in Q1. At the end of Q1 ESPN still gave us a 52% chance of victory. Obviously, losing him was devastating.
Also, I'm too lazy to find the post about our loss to Utah but we were down 7 starters, including QB1, RB1, and 3 starters on our OLine. Our QB2 should have never been on scholarship. He transferred out before spring practice started the following year. We couldn't run or pass with only 4remaining starters.
The Utah game did highlight one glaring weakness, depth. Your backups are probably ranked more highly than our starters. Holgs has done a very good job of finding grads to help mitigate that problem. We're as deep at WR and RB this year as I can remember.