Everything posted by sushihorn
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Texas @ WVU will be at 2:30 Central on 10/5 - ABC
A few observations on WVU. Cross posting here since this seems to be the game preview thread: ............................................ With no Texas Football this weekend, I watched the last couple of WVU games. Posting observations here in the interests of conserving thread count and because this isn't a full-fledged write up. West Virginia is going to be severely outmanned on both sides of the LOS. They did not trust the OL enough to run inside much against NC State or Kansas. The vast majority of runs were outside the tackles - mostly stretch and jet sweep. The little inside stuff they ran was either draws from a pass look and a few counter plays. This is a big problem for the Mountaineers since the Texas DL will be the stoutest front they've seen and it's not close. Kendall is only a moderate running threat and can't hurt a defense much if they account for him. He's accurate in the short passing game but may not have a lot of time in the pocket unless they can establish a running threat. On defense, West Virginia has a similar problem. They've had trouble stopping the run and gave up a lot of 5+ yard plays so a good running game should be able to grind them down. They're are basically playing 4-3 personnel up front with a couple of 290 lb DTs, a 250 lb DE and 240 lb stand up hybrid. Both LBs are 220-230 and their nickel is about 200. WVU relies on quickness to offset lack of size but they are facing an OL that is very good at locating smaller defenders in space. I do like what Neal Brown is doing in coverage. He is playing a lot of zone beind 3-4 men rushing. He's got them dropping deep quickly, reading the QB and coming up aggressively to make the hit on the receivers. It's a good strategy for the smaller, quicker guys he's likely to be able to recruit and it was very effective against NC State - producing 8 PBUs. Much less so against Kansas and I think that was because KU had both a greater running threat and a QB capable of delivering the ball early instead of waiting until the receivers were clearly open, thus giving more time for the DBs to react. With the mismatch on both sides of the line it shouldn't matter much to Texas this year. It's definitely something to watch for the future as this looks like another scheme that can give pass-heavy teams fits once it matures.
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Shit I've Cooked Lately
White Chocolate Macadamia Cookies. I like them soft and a little chewy - like my women.
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Tell Me About West Virginia
With no Texas Football this weekend, I watched the last couple of WVU games. Posting observations here in the interests of conserving thread count and because this isn't a full-fledged write up. West Virginia is going to be severely outmanned on both sides of the LOS. They did not trust the OL enough to run inside much against NC State or Kansas. The vast majority of runs were outside the tackles - mostly stretch and jet sweep. The little inside stuff they ran was either draws from a pass look and a few counter plays. This is a big problem for the Mountaineers since the Texas DL will be the stoutest front they've seen and it's not close. Kendall is only a moderate running threat and can't hurt a defense much if they account for him. He's accurate in the short passing game but may not have a lot of time in the pocket unless they can establish a running threat. On defense, West Virginia has a similar problem. They've had trouble stopping the run and gave up a lot of 5+ yard plays so a good running game should be able to grind them down. They're are basically playing 4-3 personnel up front with a couple of 290 lb DTs, a 250 lb DE and 240 lb stand up hybrid. Both LBs are 220-230 and their nickel is about 200. WVU relies on quickness to offset lack of size but they are facing an OL that is very good at locating smaller defenders in space. I do like what Neal Brown is doing in coverage. He is playing a lot of zone beind 3-4 men rushing. He's got them dropping deep quickly, reading the QB and coming up aggressively to make the hit on the receivers. It's a good strategy for the smaller, quicker guys he's likely to be able to recruit and it was very effective against NC State - producing 8 PBUs. Much less so against Kansas and I think that was because KU had both a greater running threat and a QB capable of delivering the ball early instead of waiting until the receivers were clearly open, thus giving more time for the DBs to react. With the mismatch on both sides of the line it shouldn't matter much to Texas this year. It's definitely something to watch for the future as this looks like another scheme that can give pass-heavy teams fits once it matures.
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Big 12 Power Rankings 2019
As @texifornia mentioned two of the weakest teams have pretty impressive P5 wins even if the opponents themselves weren't that great. One of the weakest 3rd tier team beat up on the closest thing the SEC has to a middle class. The only real OOC disappointment is the TCU loss to SMU and the ponies are looking very solid.
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So...about Charlie Strong at USF...
Enjoying the misery of others is some of the best therapy available. I think the Germans even have a word for it. Of course they also have made us crap like zeitgeist...
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Texas Recruiting Notes 2020
Clearly it's 1985 - again.
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Jimbo 2020: Strangers with Candi
They don't need that fancy technology. They just take on all comers at the glory hole - just like aggy always has. It's turdition.
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Texas opens as an 11 point favorite @ West Virginia
Seems a bit low based on results. I'll wait a bit to see if the pessimists drive it under 10. If so I'm giving the points.
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S&P+ rankings: Overperformance or overcorrection?
So his biased algorithm is just now moving towards the conclusions that any objective human observer would have come to in week 1.
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SEC Scheduling and Adjusted W-L Records
Sadly, aggy may be the best - or at least the most talented team to face Bama to date. By week 7 of the CFB season that "grueling $EC schedule" will have featured a gauntlet to shame the Bataan Death March: Duke, NM State, USCe, Southern Miss, Ole Miss are the new Murders' Row which validates Tide greatness when they go undefeated against it. I give them the benefit of the doubt since they've been consistently good for a decade. OTOH this year's team hasn't proven anything against anyone. I could see aggy giving them a challenge for a half before the adrenaline runs out.
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Tell Me About Texas a&m
- Jimbo 2020: Strangers with Candi
Lanolin is one hell of a drug...- #24 Kansas St @ Oklahoma St, 6:30 ESPN+ (but why tho?)
They have values (of a sort). I think they might even have an ethic.- We're all Buckeyes today!
It's more like slightly favoring AIDS to beat cancer.- ISU at Baylor
Purdy has not looked good all day and his line has done him no favors. He still comes up big late.- Arizona State @ #15 California, 9:30CT ESPN
I'd say his view of some of those girls is a little slanted...- OU Football 2019 - Pummeling the Shit Out of Women, Common Decency & Defensive Fundamentals
Listening to the halftime show on Fox. One of the commentators pulls out the comment about how much better OU's defense is this year and how they are averaging 14 PPG less than last year. I'm just not seeing it so I pull up the stats. Sure enough they looked pretty good on D during their non-conference schedule last year too. 2018: UCLA - 21 points, Army - 21, FAU -14 2019: UCLA - 14, S. Dakota - 14 and Houston - 31 OU's defense actually looked better in 2018 and went on to give up 40+ in 6 games. They might be better this year but you really can't see it from the early season stats when comparing apples to apples. Unfortunately Tech probably won't be much of a test either on that side of the ball. They're playing better D the last couple of seasons but their offense is a mess.- Duke @ Virginia Tech, 6CT ESPN
Looks like she has a shot at the podium if she can just nail the triple-triple combination in the long program...- Mack Brown Tarheel Football: The Orange Slice Boogaloo
After playing aggy in consecutive years they should have learned that Baaa Means No!- Tell Me About Texas a&m
Cargo Cult on the Brazos Last spasm of prosperity dates to the same period and just as likely to return.- Tell me about TCU
I have trouble telling the difference. Is he sweating more than usual?- S&P+ rankings: Overperformance or overcorrection?
Like most Fantasy Football guys, Connelly over-focuses on the eligible players on offense and almost completely ignores OL play. I suspect that's because there aren't many stats to measure the success of the line except indirectly. So it's a stat geek version of the drunk looking for his keys under the same streetlamp because that's where the light is. I'm sure he's undervaluing the Offensive Line. If the logical conclusions from that hold, it's pretty clear why he can't correctly value Tom Herman teams. He's looking at skill position production as a partial proxy for something he can't measure (OL effectiveness). But because he can't (or at least won't) separate line yards from RB yards he simplistically attributes 100% of the yardage to the back. Thus the loss of a plurality of Texas' running game "production" with the departure of Tre Watson from 2018. That type of assessment is always going to undervalue a rising program and especially one driven by large improvements in the play of the O-Line. His system completely misses the fact that Texas returned its two best starters (Cosmi and Shack). It doesn't account for adding a GT all-conference Guard. And it cannot see (more excusably) the value of a RS freshman breaking out at the other Guard position - just like it missed Cosmi doing the same at Tackle last season. Connelly's code sees "2 returning starters" not 4 veterans (all 4 good and 2 great) and one young beast. The systemic flaw here is Billy's inability to measure something critical and the refusal to admit that it is is critical. That arrogance is compounded by incorrectly attributing most of that critical factor to a result, not a cause (RB yardage). It is further aggravated by assuming that the OL blocking which constitutes so much of that production leaves with the runner. To top it all off, he uses only the crudest measure of OL quality which leads to wildly inaccurate conclusions with coaching staffs that have a history of producing high-quality OL regularly and especially when they are starting from a low base from which major improvement is likely each year for some time. Connelly's model works fine for steady state programs where the future looks pretty much like the past. Where there is a significant change from year to year his model will always be behind the informed humans that actually watch the game.- Texas Recruiting Notes 2020
Exactly. You want Sam's safety net in position to make adjustments to the blitz with a hot route and burn the D for it. They are so much in synch right now you'd think their dads were college roommates or something...- Tell Me About Texas a&m
i wouldn't trust em with live squares How about sluggish cubes?- Texas Recruiting Notes 2020
If they'd watched film, they wouldn't have to ask where the bodies are buried. Obviously the answer is "across the LOS from Karic." - Jimbo 2020: Strangers with Candi
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