Everything posted by sushihorn
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Early Voting Tracker- Elections Lab
Bama, if your theory is correct you should be looking at changes in party registration for clues on how the new voters will trend. The moves in party affiliation is one thing that has Ralston concerned in NV. IIRC correctly, Washoe County (Reno) went from 50/50 to R+4 or 5 since 2020.
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Early Voting Tracker- Elections Lab
Mail in skews D and IPEV skews R everywhere Iāve seen. Historically, ED skews R relative to EV. Weāre seeing voter behavior change this cycle so thereās little basis to determine how much of the R strength in EV reflects turnout of low propensity and new voter vs time shift of existing voters that will cannibalize ED turnout to a large degree. The NV blog posted stuff tonight suggesting there is a big partisan gap in turnout by the low propensity vote. OTOH the pro GOP EV gap did shrink a bit today.
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Early Voting Tracker- Elections Lab
It represents 20% cumulative turnout. We are analyzing the data we have, not a complete data set or even a representative sample, not yet.
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2024 Presidential Election Prediction Thread
Georgia EV by gender Overall vote trends female, EV even more so. This yearās EV shows a female bias but less so than historically. This seems to be true across a wide swath of states.
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Early Voting Tracker- Elections Lab
If you use 2020 as a baseline for turnout, you will be very disappointed. Without mass mail balloting, turnout is down pretty much everywhere. Here in Texas, that is less of a factor since we didnāt get elevated numbers from mail but return to normal early voting will have an impact here What we are seeing is depressed urban turnout, which reflects national trends. Target Smart has our early vote as 32% rural, 37% suburban and 31% urban. By comparison, the 2020 early vote 13 days out was 21% rural, 35% suburban and 44% urban. Thatās an 11 point shift from urban to rural, with another 3 points bleeding to the suburbs. A swing state example: the early electorate in NC is 6.6% more rural than in 2020. Two thirds of that is at the expense of the cities. That same trend in NV is driving the wild EV numbers out of that state.
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CFP Semifinal: Michigan/Alabama Rose Bowl - 4pm CT ESPN
Bama still hasnāt figured out the delayed blitz.
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CFP Semifinal: Michigan/Alabama Rose Bowl - 4pm CT ESPN
I donāt know about good but better than Bama for sure. Iām probably overreacting to the offensive shot show.
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CFP Semifinal: Michigan/Alabama Rose Bowl - 4pm CT ESPN
Neither team is passing effectively. D-Lines are legit. O-Lines, not so much.
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Florida State can fuck off
Unlike FSU, Pussy is still undefeated.
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CFP Semifinal: Michigan/Alabama Rose Bowl - 4pm CT ESPN
Michigan shutout of Iowa looks much more impressive now. šš¤£
- 2024 Fiesta Bowl - Oregon vs. Liberty
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Tell me about ou
Organizations built to operate under Black Market conditions rarely maintain their position as that market sector is legalized. Free markets require very different skill sets.
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Official Sugar Bowl road trip thread
Bush. And I donāt mean the president. no CR
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Comparative Analysis: Special Teams
I focused on UW in the other write ups since Iām writing for Texas fans and figure that most of us know our own team:: UW Offensive Line UW Defense
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Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition
I donāt see UW having any consistent running between the tackles. Their off tackle runs are going to require their OL to get good movement against our edges and combo up to the LBs. If our play side DE and LB can force the run wide, I like the odds of pursuit and safety support stopping Johnson from turning the corner. Remember Reggie Bush bounced stuff outside and turned it up for big gains all season in 2005. When he faced the speed of Texas he couldnāt do that and Lendale White became the bigger threat. I expect that sort of effect if our defensive front can avoid giving UW a soft corner in the run game.
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NYT Pisses on CFP: āThe Best Teams That Money Could Buyā
Salary caps can only exist under a true cartel arrangement. Those arrangements are only possible in pro sports because the league structures sit above the teams and have special antitrust exemptions granted by Congress. 1) The big boys of CFB arenāt going to let anyone dictate to them, much less impose parity. 2) The NCAA created NIL to organize a system that already existed as a Black Market. Itās recognition of reality rather than an exercise of power. 3) Lack of parity is one of the things that makes college sports so great. Low expectations and high upside incentivize Have Not programs to take risks. Think 1970s BYU, Air Raid at Kentucky and Texas Tech or the Spread rushing attack at WVU.
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NYT Pisses on CFP: āThe Best Teams That Money Could Buyā
I wish this was a complete joke but FSU is already talking about private equity partnerships. Foreign sovereign wealth funds is a short step from there.
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CFP Semifinal: Michigan/Alabama Rose Bowl - 4pm CT ESPN
I know itās Vance Bedford but thereās some good Xs and Os here:
- 2023 Peach Bowl - Ole Miss vs. Penn State
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Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition
Quinn is definitely underrated as a passer but heās not better than Penix. The Longhorn receiversā superpower is YAC and our coaching staff creates a lot of favorable matchups and coverage busts. So Ewers gets a lot of receiver running (especially screens) tacked on and easy pitch and catch to wide open men. Penix gets help from his guys but heās having to get the ball downfield with high accuracy just to create the jump ball situations.
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CFP Semifinal: Michigan/Alabama Rose Bowl - 4pm CT ESPN
They are statistically #1 after facing dog crap offenses week after week. Michigan has a good defense that looks other worldly against their schedule. We can all point to very low scoring offenses on your slate. Tell me how great the top 3 offenses are that Michigan has faced. Mizzou held the Buckeyes down more effectively. Ole Miss was mot quite as good vs Pedo State. But those are the statistical comps vs your best opponents.
- 2023 Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Georgia
- 2023 Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Georgia
- 2023 Peach Bowl - Ole Miss vs. Penn State
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CFP Semifinal: Michigan/Alabama Rose Bowl - 4pm CT ESPN
Did you watch your own video? The guy gets pushed towards the runner by the block while the RB is stumbling. DTs need to be explosive and this dude takes 4-5 steps to really get going, even with a push start in the right direction from the OL. Iād hate to see how slow he would be if forced to change direction or accelerate on his own. USEFUL Speed for linemen is measured in the first few steps, not at the end of a 40 yard dash.