Sleeping with Jennifer Lawrence would be a pleasant surprise too. Don’t do this to yourself.
*9.95ers lie when they are giving good news. They don’t lie about bad news for their fan base. It’s just business.
Did you hear any of Henry Hill’s calls in to the Stern show? Late in his life and deep in to his alcoholism Henry would call in and basically beg the mafia to come kill him. Terribly sad yet compelling radio.
I added the word particular to help you understand.
I didn’t say “there is never a scenario where going for 2 changes your opponents behavior”
I did say “in the SPECIFIC scenario of the Carolina / Green Bay game that we are discussing, going for 2 does not change your opponent behavior”
We are in AGREEMENT. There is a situation where going for 2 changes opponent behavior. Just not this one particular situation. Understand?
You are arguing against a point that I didn’t make. And I agree with you in the scenario you posted. But in the scenario that started the thread there is no change to opponent game plan whether you are down 6 or 8.
Btw, a good model will include changes to opponent behavior like the situation you outline. But your hypothetical is not really that interesting. It’s play to win or play to tie. One decision. The Carolina situation is much more interesting and complex because it’s multiple decisions and the 1st decision influences the 2nd.
Nah. Going for 2 is game theory optimal. Your opponent can’t do anything to change that. Seriously, what change could your opponent make after the 2 point that makes the 2 a bad decision? I’m genuinely curious.
Mental health and it’s implications are fascinating to me. I actually think Randolph is very smart and a brilliant researcher if the scope is limited. But it seems to me that he is dealing with a frustration in his personal life “organizations are slow to move” and he is slavishly applying that concept to UT even though it doesn’t apply. But his mind is forcing him to shoehorn everything he sees to conform to his hypothesis.
I feel if you type a few hundred more words I’ll get it. Maybe some probabilities of when the next conference realignment will start and high level valuation numbers in both the “keep coaches” and “new hire” scenarios.
Dr. Beeper, you aren’t a big numbers guy. Your partners in the betting contest are. The ones who actually put together the spreadsheet. You don’t even understand what blacklab did with his spreadsheet. He allowed you to change assumptions so you DON’T have to rely on league averages. You are out of your element and looking silly. You can prove me wrong by posting a response that shows your assumptions, assigns percentages to those assumptions and then use those assumptions and percentages to calculate win percentages.
If we have Herman and Shaka as our coaches our valuation will be sky high. But if we have Matt Campbell and Buzz Williams our valuation will be dog shit. Because reasons.
I can however give a possible explanation for Herman’s reaction. It’s been reported that Herman initially wanted to kneel again on 3rd down but that Sam lobbied for getting the TD and Herman begrudgingly approved. I don’t know if that story is true but it would explain Herman’s reaction. He wanted to kneel on 3rd so the penalty essentially brings them back to Herman’s plan A. But there is no way he planned to get a penalty. That is just asinine.
Crash is dumb to think we were trying to score on 1st and 2nd down. But he’s right that the penalty was NOT intentional. The penalty gained us nothing.
Anybody saying they would rather K State have the ball down 7 with 1:40 remaining rather than a chip shot to win is crazy. The way we played it guaranteed that Texas would never lose in regulation. Any other option leaves losing in regulation as a possibility. And Bama and LSU have shitty kickers. We don’t.
Wrong. And watch the 1st and 2nd down plays again. Sam was looking for a spot to fall down at. His eyes were not up. He was looking to down the ball by going forward.