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Dbeasy

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Dbeasy

  1. A repeat of the Michigan OL experience.
  2. Figuring out right now where to put money is extremely difficult: Long term bonds - very significant long term loss potential if long term rates shoot up, and that is a distinct possibility given government spending. Intermediate bonds - okay place, but yields of 3.5-4% isn't great for the long-term. But not a bad place overall. Short-term bonds/Money Market - okay but there is a constant loss of value vs inflation, and little rate lock-in. Inflation bonds - the issue here is that the upside might just end up being "losing less money than non-TIPS bonds" Large cap US stocks - over-valued. Mid-cap US stocks - not bad, but questions about long-term potential to perform well. Small-cap US stocks - not bad, but questiona about long-term potential to perform well. International stocks - not bad, but over the long-term likely to under-perform US stocks. International developed mkt stocks - not bad, but over the long-term likely to under-perform US stocks. International emerging mkgt stocks - not bad, but major volatility and real questions about these countries' ability to translate economic success to stock success. Commodiities - huge recent increases in value, and not an income producing asset, except for actual miners, etc. Crypto - major risk that Bitcoin and Ethernet just someday go to $0 because of a loss in faith in an asset with no backing except confidence. Ethernet might realize real asset value over time, or some other crypto might. Those would definitely be worth investing in. Don't like the security of exchanges or the complexity of holding offline; plus there is a question of viability of the asset class. Alternative VC/PE - most funds expected to underperform in future; money tied up long time; fees, etc. Alternative Hedge - most haven't shown consistency to beat the market over time; fees, etc. Alternative Macro Trading, Managed Futures - most haven't shown consistency to beat the market over time; fees, etc. Value Stocks - underperformance for a long time now. Tech Stocks - highly over-valued. Real Estate - hard to get into assets that will not have too much risk with acceptable returns; long cycle, fees REITS - performance questionable in both rising and falling interest rate environments. Other Themes - Momenturm, quality, etc.; most are either over-valued or haven't shown an ability to consistently beat the market Index Funds - See all the above about over-valued. Ultimately, most people are just spreading money around with various percentages in some or all of the categories. Where I settled for 2026: Large cap US stocks, mostly index but some in themes (equal weighted, tech, utilities, energy) (a lot) Mid/Small cap US stocks, mostly index but some in themes (a lot) International stocks (a fair amount) Emerging market stocks (some) Intermediate govt, corp, multi-market bonds - with a spread across 5-10 years. (a lot) Short-term govt, corpo, multi-market bonds - with a spread across 1-5 years. (a fair amount) Money market cash (a fair amount) Gold (a little) Alternative - VC, PE, Hedging, Macro Trading, Private Debt (a little) Real Estate - very little now except for home. Will add at some point. Crypto - have just played around with it for a few years;
  3. I was originally against a 12 team playoff because I felt too many teams were getting a shot at the title that didn’t deserve it. But after seeing how Texas got treated by the polls, and looking at this final AP poll, I’ve realized the difference between all of the top 12-15 teams is so small, and voter perception so flawed, that 12 is the minimum fair number for a playoff, and now I’d be fine with 14 or 16. Texas destroyed OU, and beat A&M solidly. BYU and ND played cupcake schedules. Alabama got torched by a few teams and lost to OU. Fuck these compromised voters.
  4. I've been patiently waiting for years now and have just about run out of patience. If he can't figure it out by this year, we will just continue to see seasons below expectations given the talent being delivered to him via NIL, and his misses on talent.
  5. Doubling and tripling down on "stupid" is quite the strategy. Calling another poster "moron" given your wildly stupid take, and being called out on it by a dozen posters and rising, is also quite the strategy. Good luck with all that.
  6. You realize that at 4%+ the U.S. Government has a very difficult time re-financing its debt because of what it would do to interest payments and the debt/deficit, right? 85% of all re-financing being done right now is short-term, and ultimately that is unsustainable. They need 10+ year rates <4%, by a significant amount, in order to issue long-term bonds that give the country some breathing room to let accelerated inflation wear away the deficit and debt as a percentage of GDP. He is steering this country to a cliff of epic proportions.
  7. The stupidity of this president knows no bounds. Above every single other presidential priority should have been getting 10+ year interest rates down, and getting the debt as a percentage of gdp down to a sustainable rate. Yet almost every action by this loon has made it worse. Way worse. It’s frustrating as hell.
  8. Indiana’s success is impressive and a great story overall. However, several years ago many of us predicted what has happened to college football. Whoever has the passionate super rich billionaire(s) behind them will be the schools that compete for titles. Indiana has Cuban and another. Michigan has Ellison. Cal is finally starting to tap into their really rich alumni base. I predicted a title for Harvard when NIL first occurred. They have multiple billionaires rich enough to fund it, but apparently none have the passion to fund it, and/or the academic side of Harvard makes it too difficult. Whoever is funding these players has to have so much money that writing a $10M+ check is not that big a deal. There aren’t a whole lot of people who fit into that category. It’s cool that NIL rendered the cheating of the past as almost irrelevant, and enabled the Indiana’s of the world to compete. However, for me it’s going to get old quick if we see the same billionaires year after year buying titles. Many folks could just check out of college sports unless some sort of better guardrails are implemented.
  9. The NFL and now college football has demonstrated the old adage that to win championships you have to be able to run the ball effectively. Indiana, Miami, Michigan 2 years ago, etc. all have had tough punishing running games with RB’s that slam into the lines with force, lineman that can push defenders back and aside, and wide receivers that can block effectively. But more importantly, all of these teams display a toughness and attitude while running. You can see it. It’s like a freight train. Texas under Sark has rarely looked like that. There were a few games over the last few years in the fourth quarter where they demonstrated that toughness, but never a whole game, and never against top talent teams. Sark knows this. He sees it. He’s talked about it. Yet he hasn’t been able to implement it. If they don’t improve markedly this year at it, they probably never will.
  10. @closetojumping Sorry to hear about all those things in such a short period. Brutal. I had a string of tough issues but over a longer time frame. If it helps, here’s how I handled it, and it seemed to work okay. The 18 months of Covid was a pretty difficult time. Of course, like everyone, I had to deal with the depressing aspects of that. Then, because of Covid, I had to sell my company for a price well below what I could have 12-18 months later when purchasing returned to pre covid levels. Then, out of the blue I lost my hearing in one ear and developed horrendous tinnitus and vertigo. Was it Covid or something else? Don’t know. Then my wife got breast cancer. Then I got cancer. We plowed thru the next 2 years dealing with each issue. Sold the company. Got my ear diagnosed and a hearing aid. Fortunately that and a few other things I did help with both the tinnitus and vertigo too. My wife went thru her cancer treatments and we are cautiously optimistic she will be ok. My cancer ended up only requiring watching and waiting. Along the way, to pull myself out of my deep well, I tried to stay very active all the time. I reached out to old friends and spent a lot of time with them. I made sure to spend alone time with the wife doing fun things: trips, activities, etc. And I decided to set a goal on something and get obsessed with it. That turned out to be getting down to a low single digit handicap in golf. For now, it seems we are on the other side of those issues. And I got through everything without getting too down for too long. Hope you can find some peace. Life sucks sometimes.
  11. Dbeasy replied to LTtxfan's topic in Football
    I wouldn’t get my hopes up
  12. Who is the female blond announcer on FanDuel with TJ Ford?
  13. I wouldn’t get too excited about Lynch.
  14. Says the guy who is constantly on surly checking players.
  15. Ooh you are so cool with your emotionally distant persona.
  16. good point, but the country only needs 2-5% of voters to flip, and at least 2-5% have investment accounts big enough to matter.
  17. It's going to take major hits to investment and 401k accounts for the MAGA fucksticks supporting this moron to "maybe" wake up and realize they are supporting one of the dumbest most crooked public figures in US history.
  18. I think the tricky issue on taking 5 star OL is the first year of development. If I recall, Kaden Procter struggled his first year.
  19. Whenever I’m a little down, about a game loss or some other little minor inconvenience in life, I head on over to the Shaka thread and am instantly joyful and happy. This thread is the best therapy out there. F-Off Motown.
  20. I don’t know who you are disagreeing with. I didn’t see anyone say it’s going away or that the focus of Texas will be primarily the portal. Maybe I missed someone’s post.
  21. The portal has destroyed my life long fascination with recruiting. The Austin American Statesman Fab 55 is a distant memory. Texas always lost 40-50% of a recruiting class to various things: grades, crimes, poor play, etc. I think now the attrition of a class will be over 60% (15 out of 24 ish) in the future, or higher. That leaves 9 ish guys that matter. You can probably ID 6 of the 9 from the day they sign/commit, and 3 will be the surprises from the remaining 18. The rest will leave before they contribute much.
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

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