September 16, 20196 yr it's impressive how they violated 500+ miles without warning. I thought Saudi had billions of high tech air defense from the US, so that was rendered ineffective by slow moving drones. BTW, did the drones themselves crash on site? Was is Kamikaze?
September 16, 20196 yr And what does Iran gain from this attack? It was not a crippling blow and has a huge likelihood of retaliatory attacks.
September 16, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, NowThis said: it's impressive how they violated 500+ miles without warning. I thought Saudi had billions of high tech air defense from the US, so that was rendered ineffective by slow moving drones. BTW, did the drones themselves crash on site? Was is Kamikaze? That's why I'm a bit skeptical of it being an outside air strike. That airspace has to be pretty heavily monitored. Unless these things flew below radar capabilities the entire route.
September 16, 20196 yr Just now, kevwun said: And what does Iran gain from this attack? It was not a crippling blow and has a huge likelihood of retaliatory attacks. raises oil prices, hurts Saudi economy, morale boost for the rebels. Saudi might be inclined to end their barbaric attacks on the Yemeni population.
September 16, 20196 yr All short term gains that it would be silly to risk a major war for. You try something like this and it needs to be a Pearl Harbor type attack that is designed to cripple Saudi oil production for years and that just might put the House of Saud's ability to hold on to power in question. Edited September 16, 20196 yr by kevwun
September 16, 20196 yr 3 minutes ago, kevwun said: All short term gains that it would be silly to risk a major war for. You try something like this and it needs to be a Pearl Harbor type attack that is designed to cripple Saudi oil production for years and that just might put the House of Saud's ability to hold on to power in question. the rebels stated goal, after they claimed responsibility, was to make Saudi stop attacking Yemen. CR -- imo this is justified, given the carnage they have bestowed onto Yemeni civilians.
September 16, 20196 yr 8 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said: That's why I'm a bit skeptical of it being an outside air strike. That airspace has to be pretty heavily monitored. Unless these things flew below radar capabilities the entire route. It is pretty flat there. Flying at 30 feet off the ground the entire way isn't out of the question.
September 16, 20196 yr 2 minutes ago, NowThis said: the rebels stated goal, after they claimed responsibility, was to make Saudi stop attacking Yemen. CR -- imo this is justified, given the carnage they have bestowed onto Yemeni civilians. That doesn't explain Iran's reasons for helping the rebels when this could very likely lead to bombs falling on Tehran.
September 16, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, Trey3216 said: It is pretty flat there. Flying at 30 feet off the ground the entire way isn't out of the question. Over the entire air space distance ?
September 16, 20196 yr 2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said: Over the entire air space distance ? I've seen videos of US launched cruise missiles traverse the entirety of Saudi Arabia into Iraq flying below radar.
September 16, 20196 yr 6 minutes ago, kevwun said: That doesn't explain Iran's reasons for helping the rebels when this could very likely lead to bombs falling on Tehran. Houthi rebels are Shia
September 16, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, kevwun said: That doesn't explain Iran's reasons for helping the rebels when this could very likely lead to bombs falling on Tehran. That's the thing. This was not completely crippling to the Saudi economy, they risk Tehran being bombed, and they risk crippling sanctions. I just don't see the payoff for Iran - better to wear the Saudis down over the years, perhaps train suicide bombers (or others) to act inside of Saudi borders (similar to the training they provided Shiites to go after Sunnis in Iraq after we invaded in 2003). This is one of the few things guaranteed to bring world opinion into play.
September 16, 20196 yr IMO, Iran could be going long game here - they have the defense system in place to pose a serious threat to an aircraft carrier
September 16, 20196 yr 17 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said: IMO, Iran could be going long game here - they have the defense system in place to pose a serious threat to an aircraft carrier How does that defense work against our stealth tech and cruise missiles? And if they somehow bagged a carrier, we'd pull out all of the stops. I'm not saying we'd start pulling out nukes, but it'll make Iraq of 2003 (or even 1991) pale in comparison.
September 16, 20196 yr 18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said: How does that defense work against our stealth tech and cruise missiles? And if they somehow bagged a carrier, we'd pull out all of the stops. I'm not saying we'd start pulling out nukes, but it'll make Iraq of 2003 (or even 1991) pale in comparison. We can also deploy a bunch of YouTubers and Instagrammers who were going to rush Area 51
September 16, 20196 yr 2 minutes ago, 52-80 said: We can also deploy a bunch of YouTubers and Instagrammers who were going to rush Area 51 Given what I know of that crowd, they are probably dying in the desert of dehydration as we speak.
September 16, 20196 yr 6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said: Given what I know of that crowd, they are probably dying in the desert of dehydration as we speak. Those who could afford to give up crystal sales for a few days.
September 16, 20196 yr it's impressive how they violated 500+ miles without warning. I thought Saudi had billions of high tech air defense from the US, so that was rendered ineffective by slow moving drones. BTW, did the drones themselves crash on site? Was is Kamikaze?A lot of what the KSA has that is their own is old. They always talk about upgrading but then it takes years.
September 16, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said: That's the thing. This was not completely crippling to the Saudi economy, they risk Tehran being bombed, and they risk crippling sanctions. I just don't see the payoff for Iran - better to wear the Saudis down over the years, perhaps train suicide bombers (or others) to act inside of Saudi borders (similar to the training they provided Shiites to go after Sunnis in Iraq after we invaded in 2003). This is one of the few things guaranteed to bring world opinion into play. This makes the second event that I'm aware of in recent history, the awkward mining of foreign vessels being the other. Hard to know just who's responsible. Could be false flag or could be rogue Iranians.
September 16, 20196 yr Just now, El Diablo said: This makes the second event that I'm aware of in recent history, the awkward mining of foreign vessels being the other. Hard to know just who's responsible. Could be false flag or could be rogue Iranians. If you were a group of young Iranians who wanted to get rid of the leadership/olds running things, and rebuild, this could be one way to do it.
September 16, 20196 yr Author Here is a write up in BBC.com about why Saudi and Iran are enemies https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42008809 And here is a map of who is taking whose side
September 16, 20196 yr My question is what are the Saudi's going to do about it? They need to cowboy up and stop acting like a lil bitch.
September 16, 20196 yr 2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said: And if they somehow bagged a carrier, we'd pull out all of the stops. Not a chance in hell they could graze a carrier.
September 16, 20196 yr 15 minutes ago, Kavinsky said: Not a chance in hell they could graze a carrier. This. I don’t care how sophisticated they think their weapons are, they would be out-classed in a hot war and there would be a regime change.
September 16, 20196 yr Oil glut about to drive down the price of oil even lower, holy shit there's an attack which magically is going to drive up prices!!!!!! Blame Iran!!!!!!! I can't wait until the world moves away from oil. We can then properly not give a fuck about the whole region, Israel included.
September 16, 20196 yr 7 minutes ago, crash_davis said: Oil glut about to drive down the price of oil even lower, holy shit there's an attack which magically is going to drive up prices!!!!!! Blame Iran!!!!!!! I can't wait until the world moves away from oil. We can then properly not give a fuck about the whole region, Israel included. In case you haven't been paying attention, the glut has been getting systematically demolished this summer. Oil is going to be pretty tight going forward and then this is adding fuel to the fire. Edited September 16, 20196 yr by Trey3216
September 16, 20196 yr Here is a write up in BBC.com about why Saudi and Iran are enemieshttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42008809 And here is a map of who is taking whose sideHey it's the Sasanian Empire
September 16, 20196 yr 8 minutes ago, Trey3216 said: In case you haven't been paying attention, the glut has been getting systematically demolished this summer. Oil is going to be pretty tight going forward and then this is adding fuel to the fire. this was released a few hours before the attack. https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2019/09/13/opec-slides-closer-to-collapse-as-an-oil-glut-overpowers-the-oil-price/#ad18bed4ecb5 Quote The most alarming comments for members of Opec, especially the cartel leader, Saudi Arabia, came yesterday from the International Energy Agency in its monthly Market Report which warned of a growing oil surplus which will get worse next year. “While the relentless stock builds we have seen since early 2018 have halted, this is temporary,” the IEA said. “Soon, the Opec+ producers (Opec and Russia) will once again see surging non-Opec oil production with the implied market balance returning to a significant surplus placing pressure on prices.
September 16, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, crash_davis said: this was released a few hours before the attack. https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2019/09/13/opec-slides-closer-to-collapse-as-an-oil-glut-overpowers-the-oil-price/#ad18bed4ecb5 Rig counts declining for 4 straight months, massive drawdowns on global supply over the course of the summer, and the coming decline in well production from shale producers will prove that theory a bit dated.
September 16, 20196 yr 12 minutes ago, Trey3216 said: Rig counts declining for 4 straight months, massive drawdowns on global supply over the course of the summer, and the coming decline in well production from shale producers will prove that theory a bit dated. you paint a very different scenario than what was published from the IEA. i assume the IEA is a well respected authority on oil. i would imagine that they have access to the same data that you do, and then some. so why the different views? i'm not asking to be a dick. just trying to understand how two people looking at the same data came to totally different conclusions. Edited September 16, 20196 yr by crash_davis
September 16, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said: Here is a write up in BBC.com about why Saudi and Iran are enemies https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42008809 And here is a map of who is taking whose side Iran and Israel are enemies, the Israelis are with Saudi - to the extent that Saudi has given them air clearance. If this drone attack was done by Iran, Israeli intel will quickly find out since they have many spies within the Iranian government.
September 16, 20196 yr 3 minutes ago, crash_davis said: you paint a very different scenario than what was published from the IEA. i assume the IEA is a well respected authority on oil. i would imagine that they have access to the same data that you do, and then some. so why the different views? i'm not asking to be a dick. just trying to understand how to people looking at the same data came to totally different conclusions. I think the IEA is severely overweight on their global recession estimates. They're basically assuming that shale producers are going to continue to grow production perpetually. It's not feasible. They're estimating away the possibility of any deal getting done with China. Even a small token deal will slow down, if not reverse, China's growth deceleration as well as lower the odds of a US recession to very low or nil. American Oil producers are finally doing what banks have been asking them to do for several years, reign in expenses. There is about $2T worth of capex cuts in oil companies around the world over the last 2-3 years. Even with flat economic growth, the glut is being eliminated quickly. Any uptick in global growth and we are staring a huge problem in the face. Natgas is going through a similar transformation. As more and more countries transfer from coal to gas/nuclear for power generation, gas is going to be consumed at much higher rates. With certain green initiatives in place, gas will become more and more inelastic in its demand curve as the goal to trim carbon far outweighs pricing, mostly via legislation. Not to mention that as more and more wind and hydro comes online, you'll need natgas generation in order to supplement downtimes and keep grids running properly. I guess I'm just a contrarian to be honest. I see what the IEA is saying, but I think they're severely glossing over some very important items that are glaring us dead in the face.
September 16, 20196 yr Now that the smoke has cleared, my take-away on the situation is that, "net net", the Saudis are going to need someone to lay some serious pipe.
September 16, 20196 yr anyway, i thought it funny. a few days ago, i read that article and thought "cool, more cheap gas for the foreseeable future". then a few hours later, drones take out saudi oil production and i thought, "well, isn't that convenient". i had a good chuckle at the timing of the "attack". back to the original discussion about iran being the suspect. i don't see it. why blatantly attack saudi when they know there's going to be a retaliation. it's zero sum game. all it does is to cause short term chaos and casualties. but then the price of oil is increasing so i think i got my answer. whether it's saudi faking it or truly iran, the end result is the same, higher oil prices. that's something saudi, iran, russian, and US all agree on.
September 16, 20196 yr 4 minutes ago, Steel Shank said: Now that the smoke has cleared, my take-away on the situation is that, "net net", the Saudis are going to need someone to lay some serious pipe. we'll do saudi's work for them and attack iran. they'll repay us by having more of their citizens fly planes into more of our buildings. i hate the whole region. it's just dirty. there are no good guys, and that includes israel.
September 16, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, crash_davis said: Oil glut about to drive down the price of oil even lower, holy shit there's an attack which magically is going to drive up prices!!!!!! Blame Iran!!!!!!! I can't wait until the world moves away from oil. We can then properly not give a fuck about the whole region, Israel included. Damn, guess I should have used all $.50 of my Kroger discount, yesterday.
September 16, 20196 yr 17 hours ago, Goofyboy said: Any way congress can stop him? War powers, etc. They've already authorized it - 2001 AUMF. US has conducted hundreds of drone strikes in Yemen over the last decade. Its not war, just kinetic military action.
September 16, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, Steel Shank said: Do you even "hot goat injection", bro? Fixed it for the KSA.
September 17, 20196 yr I imagine the House of Saud will have a team at the Brady Goat Cook-Off. I'll ask them about it.
September 17, 20196 yr I imagine the House of Saud will have a team at the Brady Goat Cook-Off. I'll ask them about it.Grab me a to-go container. Love me some goat.
September 17, 20196 yr 23 hours ago, Johnny Chimpo said: I read on Reuter’s that they knocked out five crude stabilization towers. Those are massive pressure vessels and even though I’ve never specced out installing them I am in the industry. Lead time on something like that would be like 2-3 months minimum if you could get a fab shop to dedicate itself directly to you and toss all other orders aside. Lead time on a rebuild of that type of structure is 2+ years. Period. It doesn’t matter what any fan shop could do. And they couldn’t do this shit in 2-3 months if you allowed them to print money. It’s the boots on the ground welding pipe and pulling cable that is the critical path. I repeat. This was not a refinery. The largest refinery in the world is Reliance in India and its just over 1 my bpd. This facility processed 6.8mm bpd. It’s a production facility. It merely cleans the crude up for export to actual refineries.
September 17, 20196 yr Don't worry guys, stop with the beating of the war drums. Pence's Chief of Staff cleared things up this morning: Quote "I think that 'locked and loaded' is a broad term and talks about the realities that we're all far safer and more secure domestically from energy independence," said Vice President Mike Pence's chief of staff Marc Short on Monday morning.
September 17, 20196 yr On 9/15/2019 at 7:35 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said: I don’t see a reason that America should get involved in Saudi/Yemen/Iran relations. Saudis made their own bed here. Agree. If they want to fight, let them have a go at each other. No need to get involved.
September 17, 20196 yr 36 minutes ago, J.R. said: Lead time on a rebuild of that type of structure is 2+ years. Period. It doesn’t matter what any fan shop could do. And they couldn’t do this shit in 2-3 months if you allowed them to print money. It’s the boots on the ground welding pipe and pulling cable that is the critical path. I repeat. This was not a refinery. The largest refinery in the world is Reliance in India and its just over 1 my bpd. This facility processed 6.8mm bpd. It’s a production facility. It merely cleans the crude up for export to actual refineries. Yea man. That makes sense. I was just thinking of all the cables, instruments, JBs, actuators, etc that got toasted in that fire. The major equipment is just one piece then you have to install it and actually hook everything else up, commission it, etc.
September 17, 20196 yr 10 hours ago, Johnny Chimpo said: Yea man. That makes sense. I was just thinking of all the cables, instruments, JBs, actuators, etc that got toasted in that fire. The major equipment is just one piece then you have to install it and actually hook everything else up, commission it, etc. Not just that, you probably have to modify things on the ground because the drawings weren't entirely accurate, someone made a pipe spool 25 feet instead of 20 feet or with the wrong bend, and/or someone decided to tweak the design to make it more efficient without thinking about how that change would affect everything else, etc. Rushing major capital projects rarely goes as smoothly as anticipated. Even normal capital projects that have been planned out over a long period of time have these issues.
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