May 27, 20205 yr Severe? Maybe. As the maps show above, we're kinda in the middle of an area forecast for severe weather. That low that ended up parking NE of us, sparing us of the "wet" eastern side resulted in less rain the past 2-3 days than if it stalled in W. Texas (although the thing that came through yesterday packed a lot of rain, and rain totals even in that 1-2 day event has put 2/3 of Austin area rain sites well above average for May and the year). So while we are on the "dry" side, this is a pretty good low, and so being west of its center we're going to get a small disturbance thrown down by the main low (these little disturbances "orbit" it like planets around the sun). The disturbance will clash with warm, moist air and throw up storms about 3-4 p.m. in our northern counties. The most "worrisome" time for severe weather is the first few hours after formation, when the storms can rotate - not nec. tornadoes but rotating storms can get pretty nasty. Being "in the bullseye" doesn't mean all of us are more likely to get severe weather, or that it will be more widespread - as usual severe weather will usually be confined to a relatively small area. But chances are good for hail/high winds... slightly less for weaker tornadoes. The greatest risk here will be from about 4-5 p.m. to about 9-10. Anything after that should be less mild. Then tomorrow that low finally weakens and gets caught up in the Jet again, and moves NE into the Mid-Atlantic. 4-5 days of sun for us. Guess we'll see. Keep an eye on the radar later this afternoon, watch the line/storms N/NW of us moving S/SE. Have a nice day. Edited May 27, 20205 yr by phdhorn
May 27, 20205 yr Author From the Storm prediction Center this morning. ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-weather threat today will be over central Texas and vicinity, where very large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... Split flow will characterize the upper-air pattern across the CONUS today, with the main feature being a cyclone centered initially over southeastern OK. The associate 500-mb low should drift northeastward over the Ozarks through the period, while cyclonic flow persistently covers much of the area from the southern/central Plains to the southern Appalachians, lower Ohio Valley and much of the Gulf Coast. To its southeast, a weak but persistent shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from western/southern GA southeastward toward the northern Bahamas -- will move northward and weaken further. An associated low/middle-level vortex -- centered just offshore from CHS -- will move generally northwestward to upstate SC, western NC and southwestern VA through the period, while gradually weakening inland. At the surface, a cold front was analyzed from extreme northern ON across western Lake Superior, becoming wavy and quasistationary through an elongated area of low pressure over southeastern MN, IA and western MO, then to western AR and north-central TX, to a low near INK. Only minor/mesoscale movements of the baroclinic zone are expected away from convective outflow, given the rather unchanging pattern above. ...Central TX and vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon across parts of central TX, over and near the Hill Country, some of which should be supercells offering the full spectrum of severe hazards. This will include the threat for very large/damaging hail. Convection may evolve into one or more forward-propagational clusters this evening into tonight, with the severe threat becoming more weighted toward convective wind, though hail and some tornado threat may remain. This activity will occur in a field of strong northwesterly mid/ upper-level flow around the southwestern rim of the cyclone aloft, with 500-mb wind speeds of 55-65 kt over the region. Preconvective surface winds mostly will be weak, but backing through the afternoon into a southerly to southeasterly direction. This will yield near- maximum directional shear, and contribute to 45-60 kt magnitudes of effective shear in support of supercell potential. Though forecast soundings reasonably depict small 0-1-km hodographs, given the modest ambient boundary-layer speeds, storm-scale and boundary processes also may support a tornado risk, especially when convection is still relatively discrete. The lengthy, relatively straight character of forecast hodographs also suggest some potential for left-moving storms that would travel eastward in this flow regime, while also offering large hail. A field of -13 to -15 deg C 500-mb temperatures was analyzed last night at 00Z, and is expected to persist over the area through today, as part of a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. Beneath that, expect surface dew points in the 50s over western parts of the area, transitioning to mid-upper 60s southeastward out of the Hill Country and onto the coastal plain. This will support max afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in the Hill Country and 2000-3000 J/kg over lower elevations. A lack of substantial MLCINH may yield a large number of thunderstorms in this environment, with severe threat most concentrated in the enhanced-risk area this afternoon into evening.
May 27, 20205 yr ..SUMMARY... The main severe-weather threat today will be over central Texas and vicinity, where very large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes are possible. Well, it is May 27.
May 27, 20205 yr From the Storm prediction Center this morning....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-weather threat today will be over central Texas and vicinity, where very large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... Split flow will characterize the upper-air pattern across the CONUS today, with the main feature being a cyclone centered initially over southeastern OK. The associate 500-mb low should drift northeastward over the Ozarks through the period, while cyclonic flow persistently covers much of the area from the southern/central Plains to the southern Appalachians, lower Ohio Valley and much of the Gulf Coast. To its southeast, a weak but persistent shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from western/southern GA southeastward toward the northern Bahamas -- will move northward and weaken further. An associated low/middle-level vortex -- centered just offshore from CHS -- will move generally northwestward to upstate SC, western NC and southwestern VA through the period, while gradually weakening inland. At the surface, a cold front was analyzed from extreme northern ON across western Lake Superior, becoming wavy and quasistationary through an elongated area of low pressure over southeastern MN, IA and western MO, then to western AR and north-central TX, to a low near INK. Only minor/mesoscale movements of the baroclinic zone are expected away from convective outflow, given the rather unchanging pattern above. ...Central TX and vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon across parts of central TX, over and near the Hill Country, some of which should be supercells offering the full spectrum of severe hazards. This will include the threat for very large/damaging hail. Convection may evolve into one or more forward-propagational clusters this evening into tonight, with the severe threat becoming more weighted toward convective wind, though hail and some tornado threat may remain. This activity will occur in a field of strong northwesterly mid/ upper-level flow around the southwestern rim of the cyclone aloft, with 500-mb wind speeds of 55-65 kt over the region. Preconvective surface winds mostly will be weak, but backing through the afternoon into a southerly to southeasterly direction. This will yield near- maximum directional shear, and contribute to 45-60 kt magnitudes of effective shear in support of supercell potential. Though forecast soundings reasonably depict small 0-1-km hodographs, given the modest ambient boundary-layer speeds, storm-scale and boundary processes also may support a tornado risk, especially when convection is still relatively discrete. The lengthy, relatively straight character of forecast hodographs also suggest some potential for left-moving storms that would travel eastward in this flow regime, while also offering large hail. A field of -13 to -15 deg C 500-mb temperatures was analyzed last night at 00Z, and is expected to persist over the area through today, as part of a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. Beneath that, expect surface dew points in the 50s over western parts of the area, transitioning to mid-upper 60s southeastward out of the Hill Country and onto the coastal plain. This will support max afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in the Hill Country and 2000-3000 J/kg over lower elevations. A lack of substantial MLCINH may yield a large number of thunderstorms in this environment, with severe threat most concentrated in the enhanced-risk area this afternoon into evening.This is tailor made for the forcefield to fuck on. It's had a rough month and needs to warm up for summer cockblocking.
May 27, 20205 yr Radar showing a swirling band coming right for us. Stock up on your Pepsi and Chinese food.
May 27, 20205 yr That line stretching to Oklahoma looks about to dive bomb Waco. Torah! Torah! Torah!
May 27, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, Wally Pryor said: ..SUMMARY... The main severe-weather threat today will be over central Texas and vicinity, where very large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes are possible. Well, it is May 27. That means it's Derrick May Day! Saw him play in the outfield in 1992 and 1993 on May 27. His Jersey number was 27, and of course...surname, May. It's a holy day for Cubs fans born on May 27. And of course, with that comes the apocalyptic storm of hail, tornado, wind, and Covid-19. These are the Days!
May 27, 20205 yr 7 minutes ago, Moby Ric said: I will go put my truck in the garage. That will keep the rain away. Yeah, same here. I've got ladders and tools all over the garage, that I used for installing the hardtop hoist for my wife's new Jeep. So now I have to clean all that crap up and stow it away properly, so I can get my truck back into the garage. Which will ensure zero rain or hail occurs in NW TravCo. Edited May 27, 20205 yr by utee94
May 27, 20205 yr I’m headed to Columbus at 3 to meet someone to pick up a bunch of baby stuff. So expect large hail along 71 around 4:30.
May 27, 20205 yr That was the worst hail I've ever had the pleasure of driving through on 35 in Bellmead about 30 minutes ago. I was 90% sure that my windshield was going to break and I was gooing to get the old Ray Chapman right to the head.
May 27, 20205 yr Around 10:30 AM, that spotty disorganized cluster of "eh" moving SE towards Waco started turning into a big blob of "oh shit". Now it's splitting into two.
May 27, 20205 yr 29 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said: Around 10:30 AM, that spotty disorganized cluster of "eh" moving SE towards Waco started turning into a big blob of "oh shit". Now it's splitting into two. It was a pretty mean storm where both parts of it were fully energized. A third one back-built and put a nice storm on Gatesville as well
May 27, 20205 yr That severe complex trying to improve aggyland is gonna miss us obviously to the east. However, what we need to look at is the stuff now building out by Abilene and Ballinger. That's gonna be really nasty the next 1-2 hours, hopefully it'll crap most of itself out by the time it gets to us. I think that line will start to fill in to our north as well. Here we go... Edited May 27, 20205 yr by phdhorn
May 27, 20205 yr Just now, phdhorn said: That severe complex trying to improve aggyland is gonna miss us obviously to the east. However, what we need to look at is the stuff now building out by Abilene and Ballinger. That's gonna be really nasty the next 1-2 hours, hopefully it'll crap most of itself out by the time it gets to us. Back in the day, I was close with two girls from Ballinger. The really hot one slept with one of my friends. She was crazy, but hot, and apparently lots of fun. The other one was pretty cute, but she didn't decide to accept my numerous overtures until I had decided to become exclusive with the gal who is now my wife. I thought I missed out on something. But she turned out to be batshit crazy. Lesson: Ballinger is a source of feminine woe. Steer clear. Or not. Your call.
May 27, 20205 yr Yeah, the line is building and it's just north of us, forming in Burnet across to Williamson and N. Travis, etc. Next 2 hours should be fun. Current storm building around Marble Falls looking like it'll slice SE through the northern half of Austin, unless it backbuilds to the SW. Edited May 27, 20205 yr by phdhorn
May 27, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said: Around 10:30 AM, that spotty disorganized cluster of "eh" moving SE towards Waco started turning into a big blob of "oh shit". Now it's splitting into two. POOR Falls county. Nobody gives a crap.
May 27, 20205 yr How is it looking in Dripping in a couple hours? End of the year school parades are supposed to start then. It is all blue skies right now and the forecast I look at says not until 7 or 8. Will that hold?
May 27, 20205 yr 15 minutes ago, 1978horn said: How is it looking in Dripping in a couple hours? End of the year school parades are supposed to start then. It is all blue skies right now and the forecast I look at says not until 7 or 8. Will that hold? Not looking good. A big complex is moving into San Saba heading SE. Might sweep north of Drip but I don't think so. Estimate it'll get here between 6 and 7.
May 27, 20205 yr Author Shit got real in The Woodlands. We lost power for about 30 minutes, but fortunately it came back in. When we do lose power it’s usually for at least 3 hours.
May 27, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, phdhorn said: I'll never get over Glocca Morra. Those wounds run...pretty deep?
May 28, 20205 yr Not real likely at this point maybe 20%. tornado warning for storm west of Fredericksburg but it's heading Southeast well west of Austin, not a factor for us.
May 28, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, Hate said: Shit got real in The Woodlands. We lost power for about 30 minutes, but fortunately it came back in. When we do lose power it’s usually for at least 3 hours. Damn. We’ve been without power in creek side for three plus hours now.
May 28, 20205 yr Lightning and thunder really picking up here in the Twin Creeks/Lakeline area. Rain is steady and winds are swirling. Sky has a weird tint to it as the sun lights up the clouds. I may need to move inside from beneath the patio cover soon.
May 28, 20205 yr the storms coming over North Austin actually have weakend, I don't think there's going to be much, but it yes it can get still very windy and you could get some pea-size hail here or there but I think the severe threat is almost over for our area. Not so much West in southwest of us tho, looks like a tornado is about to ramp up not affecting ATX. Edited May 28, 20205 yr by phdhorn
May 28, 20205 yr Looks like storm really fizzled as it hit Comfort, really don’t want hail damage on my house in Spring Branch. Goes on the market Friday 😳
May 28, 20205 yr 26 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said: Damn. We’ve been without power in creek side for three plus hours now. Last I heard was 300k customers without power on the north and west sides of Houston. So about 800,000+ residents.
May 28, 20205 yr Sky isn't that dark, but heavy rain and lots of thunder and lightning in 78753. Dogs are hiding under the patio. Edited May 28, 20205 yr by Deej
May 28, 20205 yr Like clockwork, the storm that just passed over Austin has re-energized and are severe warned again.
May 28, 20205 yr Woah shit, include some legit baseball size chunks too. Fuck. I don’t think I’ve ever seen it rain this hard in 15 yrs living here
May 28, 20205 yr 1 minute ago, Doc Reeves said: Woah shit, include some legit baseball size chunks too. Fuck. I don’t think I’ve ever seen it rain this hard in 15 yrs living here Whereabouts?
May 28, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said: Whereabouts? Terrell hill’s SA it’s dying down ow but I’m calling a roofer tomorrow
May 28, 20205 yr 11 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said: Terrell hill’s SA it’s dying down ow but I’m calling a roofer tomorrow You probably have 22 PMs from one already.
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