Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Surly Horns

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.

Featured Replies

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Views 99.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

  • Hello there. So here's the deal:  although I'll be posting much less frequently than before, I want to stop in here to say that I'll try to continue (er, pick back up) posting in here or a few weat

  • clapclapclap
    clapclapclap

    Well everybody is different, but mine are generally in the morning.   But that's not important right now.

  • Brisketexan
    Brisketexan

    Noah way.

Posted Images

Just a few drops in 78753 this evening. Just walked out front to this. Gorgeous. 

 

20200528_204124.jpg

Every once in awhile, I remember why we're sometimes called "The Violet Crown"  

Well, not us degenerates in South Austin, but you get the idea.  Have some rep for a great pic

Yeah. Beautiful sunset. 
 
DE109160-F6-C6-46-EC-8348-73-F23-AFFB2-CF.jpg
"Burnt Orange sunsets are proof that God is a Longhorns fan."



*Tornadoes are proof that God hates okies.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

"Burnt Orange sunsets are proof that God is a Longhorns fan."



*Tornadoes are proof that God hates okies.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk


I’m not religious, but I know this is a fact.
7 hours ago, Patricio Swayze said:

I’m not religious, but I know this is a fact.

"I believe in the soul, the cock, the pussy, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.  And I believe OU sucks."

-- Crash Davis

Dang, those 7-day models sure changed quickly.  Friday night, neither KXAN nor KVUE had any rain in their forecasts. 

Now it looks like 40-70% for the next several days.  

Edited by Chet Steadman

The rain has been so hit and, mostly, miss this year.  I saw late last week that Camp Mabry is at 19.40" for the year and ABIA is at 20.96"

I'm a little east of Pflugerville any my weather station is 13.60" for the year.  The tank is dropping already.

  • 2 weeks later...

Zero percent chance of rain today.  Yet it’s raining and lightning downtown.  Weird.

But I’ll take it.  

1 minute ago, Chet Steadman said:

Zero percent chance of rain today.  Yet it’s raining and lightning downtown.  Weird.

But I’ll take it.  

Lucky bitches.   We’re running 3.5 weeks here without a drop.  That ain’t good 

In the 360@2222 section of 78750, we had the wind pick up and blow shit off the walls on the patio and cushions all around the yard and then dark clouds. Lasted about 8 minutes. Not. A. Drop. This ain’t Bee Caves.

 

Only lasted from 1915-1945hrs, but it was almost one inch.  Here off MoPac just south of the river.  Worked out well we just happened to shut the sprinklers off this week.  

High moved a bit east of us so flow came off of the Gulf.  There was enough from that disturbance in S. Texas to allow afternoon heating showers to pop up.  One got close to me then fizzled, that's the usual course.

Another chance for that happening tomorrow, then not gonna for 2-3 days.  Small chances open up again on the weekend.  They could increase.  Doubtful though.  If so I'll be back.

Just got 1.59” from about 6:00 am to 6:45 a.m.  Didn’t even know rain was in the forecast. 

78759 - the three LCRA gauges that sort of triangulate me range from 0.92" to 1.78"(that's a big difference within a mile or two). No idea it was gonna rain this morning. What a nice surprise.

That was completely weird in the Metroplex.

Started partly sunny with 20% chance of rain after 4PM.  Well it stayed sunny until sundown.  At some point in the afternoon I looked and evening chances had increased to 40%.

About 830, not long after sundown, we're in a Severe Thunderstorm Warning with main risk 60mph gusts.

By 10 we're under a flash flood watch and got two or three solid hours of soaking rain.

Seems like most forecasts these days are "overpredictions," well this was a pretty severe "underprediction."  At least there wasn't much of anything damaging.

Got 0.4” in 78633. Will take anything at this point.

I am happy with the 0.8 inches per the LCRA rain gauge.

Got about 1-1.5 this morning in Hewitt.  ‘‘Twas nice.  My veggie garden is loving it 

Had over an inch in 15 minutes at 360/2222.  Plus, lightning fucked up every TV and my wifi shit.  Thanks, force field.

Yeah, I need PhDhorn to make some sense of this.  It looks like 40-60%+ starting tomorrow through Friday night.  I am glad that might happen but I'm wondering are we talking about midday and midnight spurts (that's what she said), or just steady drizzles for 10 hours/day?  I know it's hard to say but that's why he gets paid the big bucks.  

  • Author

Here are the projected totals through Friday from the GFS model:

0a51933a42a99049084a89e3cb489828.jpg

And here are the projected totals for the next week from the NWS.

5aa81e8176502fe556bc168a9c919128.gif

4 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

Llano Estacado

 

 

 

 

 

e512eae92c935be95025b56b71d51fa8.jpg

Looking at radar this morning, forcefield may be challenged today 

8 hours ago, Hate said:

Here are the projected totals through Friday from the GFS model:

0a51933a42a99049084a89e3cb489828.jpg



 

That spot in the far northern panhandle is desperately needed.  Felt so good to see significant rain last night.

I guess it might be too much to ask for it to come without hail, right?

Edited by Iceman

Texas is getting its rain on before that Saharan dust gets here. Impressive storm right now.

13 minutes ago, boknowstecmo said:

Texas is getting its rain on before that Saharan dust gets here. Impressive storm right now.

Yep, and it’s  barely moving. 

Edited by Trey3216

Impressive rain this morning.  Should wash all that coronavirus right out of Austin.

They called it from last night - the complex was in the northern panhandle and came in right on schedule.  Euro model predicted a good amt.  As usual it was correct.  Most spots in Austin now are above June avg.  Just like that.

A lull next 2-3 days then rain chances ramp up again pretty well near/on the weekend.

In the blastfurnace thread, quoted this 10 days ago:

Not sure what they're smokin' over there, but the CPC 2-week is often really really good.  Like now.

 

Increasing Heavy Rainfall Potential (this evening). - Jeff Linder

Short range model trends are starting to paint a concerning picture for this evening as a slow moving low level boundary moves into the area and helps to focus a west to east oriented line of thunderstorms. Recent trends and high resolution models are suggestive of potential training bands of heavy rainfall this evening into the overnight hours.
 
Given parameters in place including deep tropical moisture, slowing storm motions, and a good feed of low level flow off the Gulf, excessive rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour will be possible and this will lead to rapid street flooding. If storms anchor or slow over an area for a few hours total could quickly reach 4-6 inches with higher isolated amounts.

good rain this AM in Waco.  Hope we get another round this weekend.  

  • Author

From the NWS:
 

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ213&warncounty=TXC201&firewxzone=TXZ213&local_place1=3 Miles WSW The Woodlands TX&product1=Flash+Flood+Watch&lat=30.1458&lon=-95.5311#.XvI85iU1glQ

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436-438-240130-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0002.200624T0000Z-200624T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-Waller-
Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-Inland
Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Southern Liberty-Coastal
Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal
Galveston-Matagorda Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Brookshire, Pearland, Caldwell, Stowell,
Liberty, The Woodlands, Dickinson, Devers, Anahuac, Coldspring,
Bellville, Bay City, Trinity, Shepherd, Columbus, Sugar Land,
College Station, Hempstead, Dayton, Huntsville, Baytown, Crockett,
Wharton, Conroe, Missouri City, Pecan Grove, Palacios, League City,
La Marque, Bryan, Lake Jackson, Mont Belvieu, Old River-Winfree,
Pasadena, Freeport, First Colony, Clute, Navasota, Livingston, Texas
City, Brenham, Waller, Eagle Lake, Galveston, Houston, Prairie View,
Groveton, Sealy, Rosenberg, Friendswood, Winnie, Alvin, Ganado,
Corrigan, El Campo, Mission Bend, Edna, Cleveland, Angleton,
Somerville, Weimar, and Madisonville
1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas and
  southeast Texas, including the following areas, in south central
  Texas, Coastal Jackson and Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas,
  Austin, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal
  Galveston, Coastal Harris, Coastal Matagorda, Colorado, Fort Bend,
  Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula, Grimes, Houston, Inland
  Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland Harris, Inland Matagorda,
  Madison, Matagorda Islands, Montgomery, Northern Liberty, Polk,
  San Jacinto, Southern Liberty, Trinity, Walker, Waller, Washington
  and Wharton.

* From 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning

* A line of strong thunderstorms will develop over southeast Texas
  this evening and slowly move eastward through Wednesday morning. A
  combination between the slow moving nature of the thunderstorms,
  back building/training of thunderstorms, and recent rainfall over
  the area has led to an increasing threat of flash flooding.
  Rainfall rates may reach one to three inches per hour or more at
  times. There remains some uncertainty in the timing and location
  of the line of strong thunderstorms. On average, two to four
  inches of rain is expected through tomorrow morning with isolated
  areas of six to eight inches possible.

* These storms with heavy rainfall may be capable of flooding
  roadways. Low water crossings may flood becoming impassable and
  dangerous. Small creeks and bayous may see minor rises.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Rain moving into Mclennan Country from the NE which is kind of rare to see.

Low chance of hit/miss spotty showers today/tomorrow.  Better chance of widespread rain Friday - likely to get another round almost like Monday.  No severe right now in the forecast, that might change.

On 6/24/2020 at 7:50 AM, phdhorn said:

Better chance of widespread rain Friday - likely to get another round almost like Monday.  

And dirty rain, at that. 

Sounds like such fun.

Headed from Drip to EL-P in the AM.  What's my outlook for craptacular weather the whole way?

 

Coming back Sunday.

 

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.