April 9, 20205 yr Yesterday was a bunch of nothing. I will believe none of these lies. Edited April 9, 20205 yr by Biff Tannen
April 9, 20205 yr 24 minutes ago, miguelito said: It sounds like the area for potential ENHANCED severe weather has increased. Hail and winds sound like the main threats. Yeah, they expanded it mostly due to not knowing exactly when the front would come through the northern part of the area. Discussions still say mostly S/E but watch out for yer cornholes. Temps are gonna get pretty hot again today unless the front plows through earlier. These tend to slow up in the daytime, so we'll see. If it hits > 5 or so I'd say our area is a good shot for severe here/there. If earlier, it might scrape by us before forming severe. But with this front coming, there's definitely the lift needed that wasn't there yesterday. It will rain for most of us, I believe. 1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said: Yesterday was a bunch of nothing. I will believe none of these lies. Neither will I! (although the forecast was accurate yesterday, 20% chance of rain in the viewing area, ended up about 10% (San Saba and around there). But there are lies, damn lies, and weather forecasts.
April 9, 20205 yr Line of storms headed our way - looks like the return of phd has initiated the return of the forcefield. Line is breaking up already.
April 9, 20205 yr Probably-soon severe storm tracking N of us across extreme N Travis/Williamson/Burnet counties. This one will be for anyone in Wilco and east. Probably some hail in it, small broad rotation (not unusual, doesn't mean tornadic). Again, all that's north and will stay that way (moving E/NE). Other not (now) severe stuff forming W of us, bulk of that right now is S of us and will track south of TravCo. But it'll fill in W of us and the line should hold. If severe develops, next 2 hours will be the crux of it. In any case don't see huge widespread stuff, just pockets of strong storms within a line. Stay tuned.
April 9, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, miguelito said: I would like to know more about small rotating broads.
April 9, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, miguelito said: I would like to know more about small rotating broads.
April 9, 20205 yr 35 minutes ago, phdhorn said: Probably-soon severe storm tracking N of us across extreme N Travis/Williamson/Burnet counties. This one will be for anyone in Wilco and east. Probably some hail in it, small broad rotation (not unusual, doesn't mean tornadic). Again, all that's north and will stay that way (moving E/NE). Other not (now) severe stuff forming W of us, bulk of that right now is S of us and will track south of TravCo. But it'll fill in W of us and the line should hold. If severe develops, next 2 hours will be the crux of it. In any case don't see huge widespread stuff, just pockets of strong storms within a line. Stay tuned. I guess I missed your return. Glad to have you back.
April 9, 20205 yr Cell in Leander w/a bit of rotation (not worried much about that). Cell in SE Blanco/SW Hays moving more or less E a bit NE. 1" hail in it, officially severe, but doesn't usually cause damage. New Severe TS watch for most of SE Texas, we're in the far NW part and it'll expire for us in an hour or two once these passes. They usually issue these when activity is actually cited. I expect that the current storms tracking over us will get stronger once they pass over/out of Austin. Lots of wind, not much rain yet in The Cave. More in a few if needed. So far, meh.
April 9, 20205 yr That southern strong storm is gonna enter ATX from the SW and go up the souf side of the county. Take care city and east, that storm is packing some wind and growing stronger. NW/W Travis will generally be north of the worst of this cell. Edit: Northern storm (thru WillCo) is doing a lot of minor damage... tree branches, fences, etc. But officially not yet severe (probably is)> Rain now coming down in sheets in the Cave. Good potent spring storm for me. Watchout for your cornholes ATX and So TravCo. Edited April 9, 20205 yr by phdhorn
April 9, 20205 yr Hays storm now officially severe. Austin, you gonna get wind/rain raped. But still not on the dangerous side. I'll let you know if it is. Once these all pass, more rain is possible thru the evening, but probably not strong (this is stabilizing the atmosphere, reducing violent lift and therefore strong/severe storms). Almost thru this stuff...
April 9, 20205 yr Does rain pick up COVID droplets while it falls to the ground? If I run around outside in a storm catching rain in my mouth will I catch COVID?
April 9, 20205 yr 14 minutes ago, phdhorn said: Hays storm now officially severe. Austin, you gonna get wind/rain raped. But still not on the dangerous side. I'll let you know if it is. Once these all pass, more rain is possible thru the evening, but probably not strong (this is stabilizing the atmosphere, reducing violent lift and therefore strong/severe storms). Almost thru this stuff...
April 9, 20205 yr Tiny version because I’m not tapa VIP, sent the drone up in south Austin right before it hit.
April 9, 20205 yr 6 minutes ago, boknowstecmo said: That storm saw the forcefield and said, "Nope, fuck you instead, Kyle!" I just planted new sod so I welcome it
April 9, 20205 yr 27 minutes ago, gecko said: Does rain pick up COVID droplets while it falls to the ground? If I run around outside in a storm catching rain in my mouth will I catch COVID? Answer: (although I assume you're sorta kinda joking)... Yes... and no. Yes, heavy rain will theoretically wash Corona to the ground, technically speaking. No. However... the droplets are of course so thinly spread out in a rainshower that chances are almost zero (and like 3,282,285 decimal figures to the right of the decimal point) percent that you'd get enough in you to do anything at all, almost overwhelmingly you'd get nothingl. So the chances of you opening up your piehole out there and getting enough of 'em to contract it is beyond infinitesimally small. Vic has more of a chance scoring with a slender chick than you getting anything like that. Just too little. Even the stuff that technically washes to the ground.. can you lick the ground and get it? Again, same principle. Plus the rainwater travels so fast and only a very tiny portion of it would even technically have it, that most of the virus would be in the first .001% of wash and after that, nope, unless you get out there when the rain first hits. But give it a shot and report back. The virus can last up to 3 days in water, but again it'd be so diluted that it would be more likely you wouldn't get any (or enough to cause problems).] Alrighty then, this episode's over, now the cool and dry air for the next several days. Late!
April 9, 20205 yr 29 minutes ago, phdhorn said: Answer: (although I assume you're sorta kinda joking)... Yes... and no. Yes, heavy rain will theoretically wash Corona to the ground, technically speaking. No. However... the droplets are of course so thinly spread out in a rainshower that chances are almost zero (and like 3,282,285 decimal figures to the right of the decimal point) percent that you'd get enough in you to do anything at all, almost overwhelmingly you'd get nothingl. So the chances of you opening up your piehole out there and getting enough of 'em to contract it is beyond infinitesimally small. Vic has more of a chance scoring with a slender chick than you getting anything like that. Just too little. Even the stuff that technically washes to the ground.. can you lick the ground and get it? Again, same principle. Plus the rainwater travels so fast and only a very tiny portion of it would even technically have it, that most of the virus would be in the first .001% of wash and after that, nope, unless you get out there when the rain first hits. But give it a shot and report back. The virus can last up to 3 days in water, but again it'd be so diluted that it would be more likely you wouldn't get any (or enough to cause problems).] Alrighty then, this episode's over, now the cool and dry air for the next several days. Late! If I ask a series of weather-related questions will you stick around for a while and answer? I’m thinking like 1-2/day for the next year or so. Edited April 9, 20205 yr by Chet Steadman
April 9, 20205 yr Yeah, sure. I'll be posting less (again mostly when significant weather occurs) but will check for notifications, etc., especially if people wanna know something. Might not get to it right away (for 1/2 day or so) but I'll get to it.
April 9, 20205 yr Sadly zero rain so far in Galveston. We are in a mini drought. So wouldn’t mind some Non strand flooding rain tonight. Edited April 9, 20205 yr by Xian
April 10, 20205 yr Author Tomorrow could bring some very bad weather to much of the state. SPC AC 100600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across much of Texas, with the greatest threat likely Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... The persistent upper low over the Southwest is forecast to begin ejecting eastward on Saturday, as a northern stream mid/upper-level trough drops into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Downstream, an upper ridge will develop over portions of the eastern CONUS by Sunday morning in the wake of an upper trough moving over the western Atlantic, which will allow the ejecting trough to take on a more neutral tilt by the end of the period. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to deepen over the central High Plains, to the south of a cold front that will sweep across the northern High Plains by Saturday evening. A warm front off of the LA/upper TX Gulf Coast will move northward during the day, while a dryline becomes established across the central/southern High Plains. ...Much of TX into western LA... Rich low-level moisture will spread into much of central/east TX during the afternoon and evening, in the wake of the northward moving warm front. The warm sector will likely remain capped during the day, but as the ejecting trough begins to impinge on an increasingly buoyant airmass Saturday evening, thunderstorm development appears likely along the western edge of the moist axis. While this development will likely be somewhat elevated, moderate-to-strong elevated buoyancy and strong effective shear will favor organized storm structures capable of large hail (potentially significant), and also damaging wind gusts, especially if any upscale growth can occur. Despite the initially elevated nature of the convection, some tornado threat could also evolve prior to 12Z as storms encounter an increasingly moist boundary layer and potentially become rooted closer to the surface. There is also a nonzero chance of development prior to 12Z Sunday morning along the upper TX coast, in association with the warm front. Any such activity would pose a conditional threat of all severe hazards, but with the ejecting trough still well to the west, the probability of this scenario appears low at this time. ...Northwest TX into central KS... Modest low-level moisture that is transported into portions of west TX on Friday will advect northward into a larger portion of the southern/central Plains on Saturday. During the afternoon, moderate instability is forecast to develop from northwest TX into central KS, as dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s F are advected northward beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible along a surface trough/dryline. Guidance has trended somewhat stronger with effective shear across this region, which is forecast to be in the 30-40 kt range. The environment will support a conditional risk of supercells, though coverage remains uncertain. A categorical upgrade to Slight Risk may eventually be needed over some portion of this area if confidence in storm coverage increases. ..Dean/Dial.. 04/10/2020
April 11, 20205 yr Seems Jarrell got hammered & I heard the roof on the Old Coupland Inn & Dancehall got tossed.We had a brief, strong run here in Drip but nothing too horrible.Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk
April 11, 20205 yr Overnight could be rough in spots. Right now models are wavering between very scattered and more prevalent severe weather in our area. Kind of surprised to see "ground zero" on those maps above move us out of the target zone and place it farther east. Combination of cool front and somewhat potent storm moving in makes this pretty typical severe setup for this time of year in our area. I see some strong storms coming in after midnight. Should be issuing a severe TS/tornado watch later today, I would imagine. I'll be back unless this fizzles - which, while not all that unheard of (duh!) is something I don't think will happen. The fun with that system should start after about 9 tonight in the western Hill country. All in the timing of that front. BTW, today there's a slight chance of some daytime-driven strong storms today (dinnerish time or a bit earlier) but I don't think that'll be more than pinpoint - while it's related to the same storm, the front is still NW of us and won't have the lift of the storms after midnight. But check the radar mid-late afternoon if you want to feel good. Chances for stronger storms appear better south of us (SAT and the Valley) as they have less clouds, the temps will be a good bit warmer, so there's more heat (for us today, we'll continue to be under clouds and cool, so the heat will have a hard time building here... but if a big storm blows up SW of us it could hold together over us, though I doubt very much it'll strengthen here). Again, this is all today - not tonight - which is a different cat. I think tonight is the best chance so far this year for at least some of us to get a good weather whuppin'. Hopefully not. Edited April 11, 20205 yr by phdhorn
April 12, 20205 yr That supercell near Del Rio right now is pretty intense. https://imgur.com/SPHirKn
April 12, 20205 yr 10 hours ago, phdhorn said: Overnight could be rough in spots. Right now models are wavering between very scattered and more prevalent severe weather in our area. Kind of surprised to see "ground zero" on those maps above move us out of the target zone and place it farther east. Combination of cool front and somewhat potent storm moving in makes this pretty typical severe setup for this time of year in our area. I see some strong storms coming in after midnight. Should be issuing a severe TS/tornado watch later today, I would imagine. I'll be back unless this fizzles - which, while not all that unheard of (duh!) is something I don't think will happen. The fun with that system should start after about 9 tonight in the western Hill country. All in the timing of that front. BTW, today there's a slight chance of some daytime-driven strong storms today (dinnerish time or a bit earlier) but I don't think that'll be more than pinpoint - while it's related to the same storm, the front is still NW of us and won't have the lift of the storms after midnight. But check the radar mid-late afternoon if you want to feel good. Chances for stronger storms appear better south of us (SAT and the Valley) as they have less clouds, the temps will be a good bit warmer, so there's more heat (for us today, we'll continue to be under clouds and cool, so the heat will have a hard time building here... but if a big storm blows up SW of us it could hold together over us, though I doubt very much it'll strengthen here). Again, this is all today - not tonight - which is a different cat. I think tonight is the best chance so far this year for at least some of us to get a good weather whuppin'. Hopefully not. My wife always asks me to see what that "longhorn guy' has to say about the storms. This is wholly my fault but you better not quit us you cocksucker. We need you.
April 12, 20205 yr That supercell near Del Rio right now is pretty intense. https://imgur.com/SPHirKnReports of baseball sized hail from that cell.
April 12, 20205 yr That supercell near Del Rio right now is pretty intense. https://imgur.com/SPHirKn Double post
April 12, 20205 yr 5 minutes ago, Bevo Num1 said: 14 minutes ago, boknowstecmo said: That supercell near Del Rio right now is pretty intense. https://imgur.com/SPHirKn Reports of baseball sized hail from that cell. Saw this on Twitter:
April 12, 20205 yr Any new weather app contenders this year? And for Dark Sky fans, it was bought by Apple. https://blog.darksky.net/dark-sky-has-a-new-home/ Android users, it will stop working for you on July 1st of this year.
April 12, 20205 yr 12 minutes ago, ousuxndallas said: More pictures from Del Rio. Yeah I'd call that baseball sized
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