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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

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7 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

When can we get the latest update on how your model is shaping up? It's as good as any being posted on here.

It's ready.  Will try to post today.

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  • Uncle Boobs
    Uncle Boobs

    Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

  • Brisketexan
    Brisketexan

    Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

  • Coelenterate Fuccboi
    Coelenterate Fuccboi

    Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Just now, MC Fresh Breath said:

 

I was just wondering.  Wasn't really making a point in relationship to the other discussion going on.

 

there has been speculation that there are multiple strains but I haven't seen anything confirmed.

On the pork note, AM pork values were up just short of 5.00 a carcass with bellies up about 21 bucks, which is still cheap. Beef was up about 3 bucks a hundred on carcasses 

12 hours ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

I left middle age in the rear view mirror, but the day I become too old to eat bacon is the day I pack it in

curly.PNG.3dfd8ed65e46469810e07ef00c596107.PNG

Edited by Lone Star Horn
with correct quote

54 minutes ago, JBJ said:

  I think when it's all said and done we'll find out that TX and many other states implemented their shutdowns too early / aggressively.  

I think this may end up being right for a lot of places.  But of course we were completely flying blind from a testing standpoint.   I think most of Texas could open back up right now on a limited basis if we had more tests with a rapid turnaround time.  And the reality is I think we'll almost certainly see some restrictions loosened before we have adequate testing.  I'll be pretty shocked if everything is still in place by May 4th state wide at this point.  And it seems like as soon as hospitals have secured excess PPE (no idea of status), they should start doing elective surgeries again to increase revenue.

Just now, workswithseed said:

There would be a double post on the 666th page.

About bacon.

Map of current per capita case count for Texas counties (click per capita button): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

National per capita map: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

The Northeast is fucked, but rural areas of the Deep South aren't doing that great on a per capita basis.

Keep scrolling down to see where the rate of new cases is rising the quickest and it's mostly rural areas. Hopefully, that improves soon.

 

3 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

There would be a double post on the 666th page.

simpsons apocalypse GIF

4 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

There would be a double post on the 666th page.

obligatory

 

Just now, dcar00 said:

obligatory

 

Now I'm fucking amped.

52 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

In a word....The South

Hmmm. Way to call attention to your small town rubeness. 

19 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

On the pork note, AM pork values were up just short of 5.00 a carcass with bellies up about 21 bucks, which is still cheap. Beef was up about 3 bucks a hundred on carcasses 

is this the small town version of being a day trader?

54 minutes ago, EE2B said:

In Arkansas, Baptist Health has either reduced the hours or furloughed approximately 2300 or their 11,000 employees. They’ve said of the 2300, approximately 200 are bedside care givers. They’ve also reported a 30% drop in revenues since the pandemic began.

if it is only 30% i would be totally shocked. guessing that is for their March numbers? assume their April is going to be even worse

(Baptist has like 12 hospitals state-wide and who knows how many docs)

damn. wonder how they are splitting it furlough wise between their rural facilities vs urban ones...

 

 

54 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

you keep forgetting the churches in small towns! its the churches!  people in small towns can't not go to church or they have been told they will go to hell!  fucking rubes gonna kilt us awwlll!

eh, I live in a town with a sub 15k population and basically every church here has pivoted to streaming pretty easy. granted, some of them are much better than others but everyone is streaming here. even the tiny ones...

In on page 666.

 

A few weeks ago you couldn't go anywhere online without seeing the charts showing the exponential growth in the number of cases and number of deaths by country, state, etc.  I haven't seen any of those lately.  Why is that?

3 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

is this the small town version of being a day trader?

I'm a commodity broker with a bunch of livestock clients, and have my own cattle most of the time 

23 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Map of current per capita case count for Texas counties (click per capita button): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

National per capita map: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

The Northeast is fucked, but rural areas of the Deep South aren't doing that great on a per capita basis.

Keep scrolling down to see where the rate of new cases is rising the quickest and it's mostly rural areas. Hopefully, that improves soon.

 

 

So the worst counties in per-capita infections have populations of:

25k, 8k, 57k, 36k, 327k, 34k, 3k, 21k, 2k, and 7k

 

 

This data can't be right, I was told that rural Texas was immune to the virus and that it only attacked hipsters who eat avocado toast in their condos.

Edited by BradInATX

In on page 666.

 

A few weeks ago you couldn't go anywhere online without seeing the charts showing the exponential growth in the number of cases and number of deaths by country, state, etc.  I haven't seen any of those lately.  Why is that?

Because case plateaus and death counts on a downward slope aren’t sexy to look at.

 

 

Notice how none of us have posted Italy stats in a week+?

22 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

is this the small town version of being a day trader?

Can You Believe This Excuse Me GIF

if it is only 30% i would be totally shocked. guessing that is for their March numbers? assume their April is going to be even worse
(Baptist has like 12 hospitals state-wide and who knows how many docs)
damn. wonder how they are splitting it furlough wise between their rural facilities vs urban ones...
 
 

I would assume it is based on their March numbers. I’m with you, I bet the actual number ends up much higher than 30%. The article is from April 11th.
Here is the full article:

https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2020/apr/11/hospital-workers-see-drop-in-hours-2020/

Even though I live in Austin, I think I am taking small town Texas over the urban centers when the Zombie Apocalypse begins.

40 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Map of current per capita case count for Texas counties (click per capita button): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

National per capita map: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

The Northeast is fucked, but rural areas of the Deep South aren't doing that great on a per capita basis.

Keep scrolling down to see where the rate of new cases is rising the quickest and it's mostly rural areas. Hopefully, that improves soon.

 

East Texas doing about as expected.  Of the top 10 cases per capita counties in Texas, 8 are east of the Brenham area.  

17 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Because case plateaus and death counts on a downward slope aren’t sexy to look at.

 

 

Notice how none of us have posted Italy stats in a week+?

Or because social distancing is working as it has in other places in the world.  Just spitballing here.  

 
So the worst counties in per-capita infections have populations of:
25k, 8k, 57k, 36k, 327k, 34k, 3k, 21k, 2k, and 7k
 
 
This data can't be right, I was told that rural Texas was immune to the virus and that it only attacked hipsters who eat avocado toast in their condos.
Math is hard?

And for those who can't figure it out, this is why you don't use percentages as reliable statistics. In a town of 10 people, 1 sick person is 10% of the population. In a city of one million, 90,000 sick are only 9% of the population. Which one do you think has the bigger problem? It only makes sense to compare cities or counties with similar populations or density to see if one response tactic is having a better effect than another. For example, Austin and San Jose (CA) have similar populations, but we have fewer cases and deaths. Why?
1 hour ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

Is it possible that there are different strains of this virus already?  Just wondering. 

Supposed to be 8 from what I've read.

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Last week: Milk

This week: Bacon

Better stock up on Eggs.  It's obvious they are next.

7 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

East Texas doing about as expected.  Of the top 10 cases per capita counties in Texas, 8 are east of the Brenham area.  

Whole lotta aggy

1 hour ago, workswithseed said:

Makes you wonder if big cities are going to lose some draw after this.

No, but I believe there are a lot of NY rent controlled places coming available right now.

1 minute ago, ABSR said:

No, but I believe there are a lot of NY rent controlled places coming available right now.

Capitalism wins?

8 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

Supposed to be 8 from what I've read.

Have a good link handy?  My Duck Duck Go search is apparently lacking.

 

We are friends with a number of nurses and doctors and have been hearing the same.  It's been going on for a while.  At least one of the major Texas health chains is already sending out peer-reviews to evaluate layoffs after this is over.  They all probably will need to cut to some extent.  I think when it's all said and done we'll find out that TX and many other states implemented their shutdowns too early / aggressively.  ER trauma visits are way down as well, which is another revenue driver.

Counter-point: preventative measures like preventing sick people from congregating in large groups help decrease the rate of transmission. If you’re putting in preventative measures after this virus spreads throughout the community, then its too late.
51 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

In on page 666.

 

A few weeks ago you couldn't go anywhere online without seeing the charts showing the exponential growth in the number of cases and number of deaths by country, state, etc.  I haven't seen any of those lately.  Why is that?

the statisticians are all dead of the coronavirus, as the models predicted

This is a very naughty page 

10 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I just want to be in on page 666.

All the pages on this topic are page 666.

21 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Whole lotta aggy

They won't die from COVID-19, they'll just run out of ventilators.

34 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Because case plateaus and death counts on a downward slope aren’t sexy to look at.

Notice how none of us have posted Italy stats in a week+?

Well, I'm sorry, but that's ridiculous.  I don't care about the morons.  They're unreachable.  They're gonna do what they're gonna do.  Telling them things are not all that bad when we have no information that suggests this is the case is just as likely to make things worse as it is to make them better.

Furthermore, past data fail to account for stressed healthcare facilities, which implies that the numbers are going to get WORSE, and soon.

Nope, I'll deal in the data as they are presented.  You're more than welcome to hope that the mortality growth rate suddenly declines just because it did in other countries (with their attendant sketchy reporting).  I'll just look at the curves, thank you very much. Accordingly, I'm calling for roughly 14,000 new deaths per day for the next 2 days, as we reach the goal I set for our country on April 1 of reaching 50,000 deaths by April 15. 

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

All the pages on this topic are page 666.

The op was the anti Christ all along. Very clever op.

Pork packing plants nationally ran at about 60% of capacity, cattle around 70%. 

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

All the pages on this topic are page 666.

They are now.....

3 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Well, I'm sorry, but that's ridiculous.  I don't care about the morons.  They're unreachable.  They're gonna do what they're gonna do.  Telling them things are not all that bad when we have no information that suggests this is the case is just as likely to make things worse as it is to make them better.

Furthermore, past data fail to account for stressed healthcare facilities, which implies that the numbers are going to get WORSE, and soon.

Nope, I'll deal in the data as they are presented.  You're more than welcome to hope that the mortality growth rate suddenly declines just because it did in other countries (with their attendant sketchy reporting).  I'll just look at the curves, thank you very much. Accordingly, I'm calling for roughly 14,000 new deaths per day for the next 2 days, as we reach the goal I set for our country on April 1 of reaching 50,000 deaths by April 15. 

If we follow the trend out to mid May, Italy and Spain alone will have raised 500K from the dead!  Can you imagine the overpopulation?  It is all over thanks to those backwards rednecks.  Furk.  Ballgame.  

3 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

The op was the anti Christ all along. Very clever op.

I thought that was Webster, yeah Emmanuel Lewis?

9 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

Pork packing plants

Is that a euphemism for a Vic thread I don't know about?

35 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

Counter-point: preventative measures like preventing sick people from congregating in large groups help decrease the rate of transmission. If you’re putting in preventative measures after this virus spreads throughout the community, then its too late.

But you also need some degree of community spread to start getting through this. It's sounds funny, but we want a certain amount of people to get sick and get passed it.  Every week that our hospitals are slow is a week that we've spent in quarantine for nothing but layoffs, furlows, and compromised retirement accounts.  The places worse off (health and economy-wise) will be the ones that appear to be in excellent shape through the spring, but get demolished by the second wave because they have no community resistance. 

Edited by JBJ

12 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

If we follow the trend out to mid May, Italy and Spain alone will have raised 500K from the dead!  Can you imagine the overpopulation?  It is all over thanks to those backwards rednecks.  Furk.  Ballgame.  

So zombie apocalypse? That's in my wheelhouse. Too bad, I no longer have an Ingram MAC-11.

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