March 16, 20205 yr This came up with some guys at work. Leave stuff like it sits or move it to some safe account for this crap?
March 16, 20205 yr Author MHO, if you try to move it now you will end up missing the rebound. That was my thinking as well, but I don’t really mess with the stuff.
March 16, 20205 yr The "Markets falling: Wahoo" thread over in Bada Bing is a good place to pose your question.
March 16, 20205 yr Author The "Markets falling: Wahoo" thread over in Bada Bing is a good place to pose your question.Didn’t even think about heading over there. I’ll try that.
March 16, 20205 yr If you have a long time to recover, say 10 years, before retirement, just leave it. Pretty much too late anyway.
March 16, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, RoundRobin said: MHO, if you try to move it now you will end up missing the rebound. that is what Wall St tells you to do. And since they never advise you to sell under any circumstance, the "don't sell into a downturn" is suspect. They need passive investors to stay passive.
March 16, 20205 yr That isn't really what Wall Street tells you to do. It's what off-street tells you to do. Bogle, Buffett, Lynch. Wall Street makes money off transactions, not growth or dividends. They probably don't want you pulling out of the market entirely, though. Edited March 16, 20205 yr by TwiceHorn
March 16, 20205 yr NOT too late to get a chunk into MM accounts. I moved all 529s last week because those have much less time to recover (age dependent). Also moved a rollover ira into MM for less total equity exposure across all my retirement accounts.How do you think Christmas will go this year? If you believe fundamentals matter at all anymore, this market is going to suck until q2 2021.Dow is about 21,100 right now, fyi as a reference for posterity...
March 16, 20205 yr Not sure how many bear markets and crashes I’ve been through in my professional career that started in 1984, but it’s been several. I’ve yet to sell any stock or mutual fund during a downturn or near a high. I don’t see any reason to change my strategy now. I’m around 10 years away from retirement age.
March 16, 20205 yr 48 minutes ago, HouTex said: Not sure how many bear markets and crashes I’ve been through in my professional career that started in 1984, but it’s been several. I’ve yet to sell any stock or mutual fund during a downturn or near a high. I don’t see any reason to change my strategy now. I’m around 10 years away from retirement age. I think it's a mistake to have everything in the market right now. now perhaps the worst of the damage is done but do you really believe that we've seen the worst part of this crisis from an economic viewpoint?
March 16, 20205 yr I think it's a mistake to have everything in the market right now. now perhaps the worst of the damage is done but do you really believe that we've seen the worst part of this crisis from an economic viewpoint? The problem is that my crystal ball is broken. You can never know when the bottom or the top is. When it rebounds when do you get back in? Last year I was up 30%. Many people I know were saying 2019 would be a down year with some predictions of recession. Indeed, the last economic news of a couple of weeks ago was fabulous before the virus panic. So if i had been out of the market last year i would not have had that gain. There’s a huge risk for being out of the market. You miss a couple of huge 5-8% up days and you’ve lost a great opportunity. So I just let it ride and it’s worked out very well. One can say this time is different. They say that every time. This too shall pass.
March 16, 20205 yr We haven't seen the bottom yet, ALSO a lot of 401K fund/stock activity is time limited, in that you can't get back into some funds for 30 days for example. I came very close to taking a pretty big risk and shifting a big chunk into my wife's company stock because I see a huge upside after the darkness. But risky in putting anything in a single place. For the average guy simply ride it out. OR conversely you could boost even further your 401K contributions to get a greater percentage of your holdings during this downturn. IF you can spare the cash. MY personal opinion is that the market is going to be fuck city next tuesday or wednesday and I am hoping that might be a bottom. As I feel that when the raw numbers start getting digested the enormous gravity of the situation will be even better defined. As well as the inadequate preparation become shocking clear when the videos of overrun hospitals are contrasted with the "we are doing an amazing job." Press conferences. That's sort of when i was considering putting my toe in. We could fall for months but I am hoping long term players may come back in then to support the market. But who the fuck knows. Edited March 16, 20205 yr by horn4life
March 16, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, HouTex said: The problem is that my crystal ball is broken. You can never know when the bottom or the top is. When it rebounds when do you get back in? Last year I was up 30%. Many people I know were saying 2019 would be a down year with some predictions of recession. Indeed, the last economic news of a couple of weeks ago was fabulous before the virus panic. So if i had been out of the market last year i would not have had that gain. There’s a huge risk for being out of the market. You miss a couple of huge 5-8% up days and you’ve lost a great opportunity. So I just let it ride and it’s worked out very well. One can say this time is different. They say that every time. This too shall pass. I learned my lesson in 2008. Don't listen to what the experts are recommending, do what the experts themselves are doing. And you identify that by the direction of the crashing market. They're selling and they're happy that you don't. Many investors are out of the market now. A good time to get back in is when the passive retirement accounts start to sell out of fear. I expect that to be next month when quarterly personal statements are sent out. And I guarantee I won't time it perfectly which is ok. I took a huge hit today too but it's less than half I would have taken if I didn't sell half of my 401k a few weeks ago. (It's still there but in low risk bonds & treasury notes.) I plan to slowly buy back in whether the drop continues or miraculously goes back up. If the market bounces back tomorrow, it might be a good opportunity to sell SOME of your portfolio. Lock in gains through 2017. But perhaps it is too late for some to sell now. You've lost 3 years of gains in a few weeks. What's another 3 years, right?
March 16, 20205 yr I'm just glad I get to fund my 401k/Keogh plan in the next 30 days--that's when our firm does it. It will be invested in several different TR Price funds.
March 17, 20205 yr There are some pretty amazing studies that show what happens if you miss the best days in a rebound / recovery. The odds of picking the bottom are so slim and the cost of missing out on the best days is so high that if you have the proper time horizon then staying invested makes mathematical sense. Even missing the best 5 or 10 days has dramatically decreased performance for long term investors.
March 18, 20205 yr If you think there is a more than likely a chance to see the s&p 500 at 2000 before 3000, it’s better to sell some tomorrow. Not all. Some of you retirement funds. You’re reducing risk. If you’re wrong with that bet and everything goes back to normal next week, you miss out on some relatively small gains. If you’re right about some big drops ahead, you set yourself up for massive gains in a few years with the recovery in a few years. i think it comes down to whether you think the market has already priced in massive global unemployment and lower GDPs.
March 18, 20205 yr On the idea that getting out of the market will cause you to miss out on the large increase days. Yes, 100% true. However since you’re not day trading, the only number that matters is the longer trend not individual days. there have been some crazy positive days in the past month but we’re down a large percentage in the s&p? With perfect (now) hindsight you would have been happy to miss those 6% gain days if you had stayed out. if you’re an older retirement investor (40+) and scared on the idea of selling, sell slowly. 5% per week. Lock in some gains you’ve experienced over the past decade. If you’re 25, I agree my thoughts here don’t matter since your balance is much lower. I would also be 100% clear on your plans rules in buying back in. If you sell a fund and buy back that exact fund too soon, they can place trading restrictions on you. Retirement accounts don’t like frequent trades. It’s not impossible just requires more thought. (disclaimer: I’m just a guy on the internet not an expert. I agree you can’t perfectly time the market. Do what’s best for you, not what I say)
March 18, 20205 yr You going to sell your mineral rights because the price of a barrel oil has gone down? Didnt think so.
September 23Sep 23 Didn't really pay attention to my 401k investment. it was automatically invested in something called "Fidelity Freedom Index 2045." Start looking at it last year. Here's how it compares to the S&P 500. Year Fidelity Freedom Index 2045* S&P 500 Total Return Difference (Fid vs S&P) 2020 +16.42 % +18.40 % Macrotrends+4SlickCharts+4SlickCharts+4 Fid −1.98 pp 2021 +15.95 % +28.71 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −12.76 pp 2022 −18.24 % −18.11 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −0.13 pp 2023 +19.90 % +26.29 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −6.39 pp 2024 +14.16 % +25.02 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −10.86 pp I talk to the Fidelity and say "what the fuck is this thing? it's worse than just getting something that tracks the S&P by a mile?" have to listen to some idiot tell me how sophisticated it is. i politely nod and immediately go mid-year last year to change my investments. i can invest in stuff that just tracks the S&P500. Start putting everything into that. Investment YTD Return as of Aug 13, 2025 Fidelity Freedom Index 2045 ~ +15.63 % StatMuse+1 S&P 500 (Total Return)** ~ +9.9 % AP News FUCK! GODDAMMIT
September 23Sep 23 11 minutes ago, ImNotMarkinson said: Didn't really pay attention to my 401k investment. it was automatically invested in something called "Fidelity Freedom Index 2045." Start looking at it last year. Here's how it compares to the S&P 500. Year Fidelity Freedom Index 2045* S&P 500 Total Return Difference (Fid vs S&P) 2020 +16.42 % +18.40 % Macrotrends+4SlickCharts+4SlickCharts+4 Fid −1.98 pp 2021 +15.95 % +28.71 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −12.76 pp 2022 −18.24 % −18.11 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −0.13 pp 2023 +19.90 % +26.29 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −6.39 pp 2024 +14.16 % +25.02 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −10.86 pp I talk to the Fidelity and say "what the fuck is this thing? it's worse than just getting something that tracks the S&P by a mile?" have to listen to some idiot tell me how sophisticated it is. i politely nod and immediately go mid-year last year to change my investments. i can invest in stuff that just tracks the S&P500. Start putting everything into that. Investment YTD Return as of Aug 13, 2025 Fidelity Freedom Index 2045 ~ +15.63 % StatMuse+1 S&P 500 (Total Return)** ~ +9.9 % AP News FUCK! GODDAMMIT Eh live and learn. Those target funds aren't horrible for dumbshits. They're more diverse and less risky than even an SP500 tracker. If we'd had extended down markets, you'd probably be singing a different tune. A lot worse mistakes have been made by those not minding the store in the 401k. Edited September 23Sep 23 by TwiceHorn
September 23Sep 23 The goal of a Target Date fund isn’t to track the S&P 500. It is a set it and forget it fund that becomes more conservative (reduce equity exposure) the closer you get to the target date. Edited September 23Sep 23 by luke duke
September 23Sep 23 And If that's what Fidelity sticks you in by default, targeted to your retirement year, that's a whole hell of a lot better than what some other 401k manager enties default to or force you into. Another positive point for Fidelity as a 401k manager for small to medium business.
September 23Sep 23 Not sure of circumstances but sounds like a relatively recent hire / enrollee in this plan???? This was a significant change in the Secure Act for new plans and some older plans also adopted it. Employee is automatically enrolled in the 401(k) and can opt out, vs. employee having to proactively opt in. Most sponsors then elect to have the default investment be a target date fund matching the employees age....unless/until the employee changes it. Tough to argue that it is an improper investment when it is aligned with age and generally accepted allocation profile....Gives the plan sponsor and trustee some legal cover that they did the best they could for the employee. Avoids sticking the employee in cash and then having to deal with them coming back 25 years later saying "why didn't you tell me?". Whole lotta trying to protect people from themselves and playing the human nature game.
September 23Sep 23 Recently bias kicking in for the OP here. If you want to be more aggressive but still take a “stick it and forget it” approach you can move to a target fund farther out from your date (2055 vice 2045). As this year shows, an S+P tracker is not always the choice you want. I had an acquaintance dutifully make max contributions to his TSP (gov equivalent of 401k) but never reallocate from the G fund until 5 years out from retirement. Now that is a true fuckup.
September 23Sep 23 55 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said: Recently bias kicking in for the OP here. If you want to be more aggressive but still take a “stick it and forget it” approach you can move to a target fund farther out from your date (2055 vice 2045). As this year shows, an S+P tracker is not always the choice you want. I had an acquaintance dutifully make max contributions to his TSP (gov equivalent of 401k) but never reallocate from the G fund until 5 years out from retirement. Now that is a true fuckup. Yeah I have a ton in a 2055 and I don't plan on working until even 2045.
September 23Sep 23 1 hour ago, Reagan1k said: Not sure of circumstances but sounds like a relatively recent hire / enrollee in this plan???? This was a significant change in the Secure Act for new plans and some older plans also adopted it. Employee is automatically enrolled in the 401(k) and can opt out, vs. employee having to proactively opt in. Most sponsors then elect to have the default investment be a target date fund matching the employees age....unless/until the employee changes it. Tough to argue that it is an improper investment when it is aligned with age and generally accepted allocation profile....Gives the plan sponsor and trustee some legal cover that they did the best they could for the employee. Avoids sticking the employee in cash and then having to deal with them coming back 25 years later saying "why didn't you tell me?". Whole lotta trying to protect people from themselves and playing the human nature game. Didn't know about that, but I have seen some 401ks with horrible options and the default option being the most horrible.
September 23Sep 23 5 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said: Didn't know about that, but I have seen some 401ks with horrible options and the default option being the most horrible. I think a lot of plans elect the most conservative for you automatically because people who don’t pay attention to their shit are the ones most likely to throw a fit if they check one day and have “lost” money.
September 23Sep 23 1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said: I think a lot of plans elect the most conservative for you automatically because people who don’t pay attention to their shit are the ones most likely to throw a fit if they check one day and have “lost” money. Historically that's exactly what happened. People would sign up for a deferral and then not make a fund selection. Poor enrollment practices and lack of education often contributed to this. Employers erred on the side of caution and made the default setting as cash. That changed with the new laws and the automatic enrollment for certain plans. In an uncommon display of common sense, the feds issued some guidance and gave sponsoring employers the ability to choose a Qualified Default Investment Alternative (QDIA) for automatic enrollees that not only benefits the employee over the long run, but also shields the plan sponsor from liability over losses. Considering all the stupid shit they've done, this specific provision was not one of them in my estimation. Edit - There could still be some legacy plans with shit for enrollment provisions and shit for options, including the default I would presume. Edited September 23Sep 23 by Reagan1k
September 24Sep 24 Anybody have experience with a solo 401k. I have random 1099 dollars that i would like to just dump into a solo 401k. Is it as simple as i think it will be. Or am i missing something. My main job has no retirement plan if that makes a difference. Jobs are unrelated. So i have a w2 bucket and 1099 bucket of cash.
September 24Sep 24 59 minutes ago, partytimesausage said: Anybody have experience with a solo 401k. I have random 1099 dollars that i would like to just dump into a solo 401k. Is it as simple as i think it will be. Or am i missing something. My main job has no retirement plan if that makes a difference. Jobs are unrelated. So i have a w2 bucket and 1099 bucket of cash. How much 1099 income are we talking about and how much of it are you willing to squirrel-away?
September 24Sep 24 1 hour ago, Reagan1k said: How much 1099 income are we talking about and how much of it are you willing to squirrel-away? 100% amount varies year to year. I find the limits confusing. but max out the employee side and then try to max out the employer side but i dont think i will be able to due to the 25% limit. 2 hours ago, Jkwellborn said: Would an IRA be better in that situation? Want the higher limits of the solo 401k
September 24Sep 24 On 9/23/2025 at 9:26 AM, ImNotMarkinson said: Didn't really pay attention to my 401k investment. it was automatically invested in something called "Fidelity Freedom Index 2045." Start looking at it last year. Here's how it compares to the S&P 500. Year Fidelity Freedom Index 2045* S&P 500 Total Return Difference (Fid vs S&P) 2020 +16.42 % +18.40 % Macrotrends+4SlickCharts+4SlickCharts+4 Fid −1.98 pp 2021 +15.95 % +28.71 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −12.76 pp 2022 −18.24 % −18.11 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −0.13 pp 2023 +19.90 % +26.29 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −6.39 pp 2024 +14.16 % +25.02 % SlickCharts+2Macrotrends+2 Fid −10.86 pp I talk to the Fidelity and say "what the fuck is this thing? it's worse than just getting something that tracks the S&P by a mile?" have to listen to some idiot tell me how sophisticated it is. i politely nod and immediately go mid-year last year to change my investments. i can invest in stuff that just tracks the S&P500. Start putting everything into that. Investment YTD Return as of Aug 13, 2025 Fidelity Freedom Index 2045 ~ +15.63 % StatMuse+1 S&P 500 (Total Return)** ~ +9.9 % AP News FUCK! GODDAMMIT Fidelity Freedom funds are a "life path" or "target date" fund based a target retirement date. In this case the chosen date is 2045. Target date funds tend to invest in both US and international funds in about a 60/40 or 70/30 mix, with some bonds. As the retirement date approaches, they sell stocks and buy bonds to reduce risk. The S&P 500 funds are US stocks, however these big US companies do get revenues from both US and international sources. Think about US companies with a worldwide impact like Exxon and Microsoft. In years where the S&P 500 performance dominates, the S&P 500 fund is going to do better than the target date funds. In years where international performance is better than US, the target date fund is going to be better. International funds have done well in 2025, but for the years leading up to 2025 the S&P funds outdid the international funds, as your data shows.
September 24Sep 24 @partytimesausage It really all depends in the amount of 1099 income, how much you can defer, and your ability to reasonably predict how steady that income will be. A solo 401(k) with employee deferrals and an additional profit sharing contribution gets you to a healthy number. If you want even more than that then it is possible to structure and fund a defined benefit plan that could allow 6-figure contributions depending on your age. With the latter you have to consider the additional costs of administering the plan. Nice dilemma. Get a pro to help you crunch the numbers and figure out the best route. Edited September 24Sep 24 by Reagan1k
September 24Sep 24 3 hours ago, partytimesausage said: Anybody have experience with a solo 401k. I have random 1099 dollars that i would like to just dump into a solo 401k. Is it as simple as i think it will be. Or am i missing something. My main job has no retirement plan if that makes a difference. Jobs are unrelated. So i have a w2 bucket and 1099 bucket of cash. I have a solo 401k but it's only purpose was to roll over funds that I got from an employer SEP IRA. Doing that allows me to do the backdoor roth IRA tax free.
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