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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

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Well, glass half full moment:

52-ish% are stuck in the grind of work & can't  binge watch Netflix/HBOmax & Disney+.?!

 

Edited by kopp0e
(I'm joking, of course)... #SarcasmHardToRead

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  • I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

  • This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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14 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Can you link that? Happy to stand by it if we booked it, but you'll need to provide the link. I just need to know my exposure so I can arbitrage it on predictit. 

You still taking action on that one?

28 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

You're gonna have to refresh my memory on that one.  I don't recall you or me accepting any wager, but I may very well be forgetting it. Otherwise I agree with your analysis.  Trump is dead in the water. 

 

34 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Biden will win. Trump will lose. And my Texas bet with anastasis (with odds) is looking better every day. 

As I recall it was a donation to the choice of the winner. Odds are fuzzy in the memory.

Edit: that's maybe 3 Scaramuccis ago

Edited by cactusflinthead

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Economist thinks Biden doesn’t even need his “lean D” states anymore. 
 

 

 

On one hand,  I enjoy seeing this because I think independents have given up on Trump permanently for it to really be this awful for him.

 

At the same time, we need democratic enthusiasm to stay high until November. The last thing we need is people seeing this stuff and thinking they can skip the voting lines this year. There’s probably still a small chance that Trump turns out all of his degenerate base and a combination of low democratic turnout and independent turnout isn’t enough to beat trump because everyone thinks it is in the bag.

6 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

You still taking action on that one?

Jimmy would have to remind me what the terms were before I could say. 

17 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Sure. But I’m not searching it tonight. I’ll get to it like that study you wanted me to find. When I get to it. 

Yeah that was weird.  I don't know why you didn't just admit that you were parroting something you read in The Atlantic. 

The left is getting better at wagering and the bothsiders are terrified

14 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Yeah that was weird.  I don't know why you didn't just admit that you were parroting something you read in The Atlantic. 

Well you were making such a big deal of it. I guess I thought you were sincerely interested in it. My bad.

18 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Jimmy would have to remind me what the terms were before I could say. 

It was $500 bucks that Biden beats trump in Texas with odds of approximately 62-38. I will find the exact numbers soon. When I find them I will be sure to let you know. I’m a little surprised you seem to not recall this. 

22 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Jimmy would have to remind me what the terms were before I could say. 

Hell, if the price is right I might even take a layoff of some of the risk.

29 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

As I recall it was a donation to the choice of the winner. Odds are fuzzy in the memory.

Edit: that's maybe 3 Scaramuccis ago

You are right. It was a donation with the winners choice.

5 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

It was $500 bucks that Biden beats trump in Texas with odds of approximately 62-38. I will find the exact numbers soon. When I find them I will be sure to let you know. I’m a little surprised you seem to not recall this. 

I know, me too.  I don't think that I would forget something that like, but bourbon sometimes happens. 

enough with the threadjack, just take it to the bourbon thread.

7 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

You are right. It was a donation with the winners choice.

After taking several readings I'm surprised to find 

My mind's still fairly sound 

Just now, cactusflinthead said:

After taking several readings I'm surprised to find 

My mind's still fairly sound 

That's my candidate!

 

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

enough with the threadjack, just take it to the bourbon thread.

Not drinking bourbon tonight. Just wine. It’s Monday. So it’s all sort of chill.

On 7/12/2020 at 8:46 AM, Mapache said:

 

I was a participant in this one :)

 

4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Anyone else notice how the GOP has to dig up things that happened over 30 years ago to try and attack biden?

 

Hard part is every detrimental  Biden quality or action I can think of the GOP tends to like and endorse.   

 

3 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

I read that electoral map and registered my wife to vote this evening. She got her citizenship last year. I'm upset texas still leans R. I want a Reagan v Mondale type landslide.  She will be voting straight ticket dem. Does this make you happy? 

All I can hear is Andre the Giant. You just shook your head. That doesn’t make you happy? 

1 hour ago, TexasEd said:

I was a participant in this one :)

 

Fucking unicorn right here. 

30 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Fucking unicorn right here. 

They call me about once a quarter.  The unicorn is because of poor cell coverage I have a landline.

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

All I can hear is Andre the Giant. You just shook your head. That doesn’t make you happy? 

Anybody want a peanut? 

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Now is where all the blood red conservatives in east Texas with cowboy boots and chewing tobacco in their mouth calls Biden a pussy.

this kind of ad is what the Beto / surburban people want to hear tho. If nothing else, let’s narrow up Texas even more!

3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

I like it:

- clear target (suburban women)

- clear and immediate call to action (stay safe wear a mask) 

- high contrast to what the target audience doesn’t like about the President (reassuring decency)

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

Haha Kanye pulled support from Trump in that poll rather than Biden.

Also who the hell are the 8 to 10% undecided voters? Have they been living under a rock for the past 4 years?

11 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

Haha Kanye pulled support from Trump in that poll rather than Biden.

Also who the hell are the 8 to 10% undecided voters? Have they been living under a rock for the past 4 years?

I was genuinely undecided both 2012 and 2016* until the week of election and I paid a bit of attention. I think it is great there is only single digits undecided.  That seems really low. 
 

*to be clear, that was Gary Johnson it HRC.  I have always been a proud never trumper

I was genuinely undecided both 2012 and 2016* until the week of election and I paid a bit of attention. I think it is great there is only single digits undecided.  That seems really low. 

 

*to be clear, that was Gary Johnson it HRC.  I have always been a proud never trumper

It's lower than 2016 but it's still mind blowing that there are tens of millions of voters out there that aren't part of the Trump cult (I'm sure a chunk of them actually are) and have watched this guy over past 3.5 years and still think "man idk this is tough."

 

It's why, at the end of the day, I did think most of the currently "undecided" go for Trump. The positive is that Biden is consistently polling above what Trump will realistically get (he will not expand on the 46 percent from 2016), and has a polling average right at 50. There's no world where Trump wins with Biden at 50 percent of the vote.

 

20 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Isn’t the deadline for Kanye to get on the ballot in most states this Friday?

I’m starting to think it’s dead or almost dead.

either way, it looks like he won’t get on the ballot in Florida. That deadline is tomorrow and Florida was one of the few states Kanye could help trump in.

What the fuck world are we living in where there is serious discussion about Kanye West running for president?  I mean what the fuck.

What the fuck world are we living in where there is serious discussion about Kanye West running for president?  I mean what the fuck.

Hell. We live in hell.
49 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Isn’t the deadline for Kanye to get on the ballot in most states this Friday?

Shhhh, don't tell him

Ah Kanye West, the 2020 thinking man's Gary Johnson.  

Seriously, it's fucking insane that he's going to come into play in Florida.  What the fuck?  

7 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

What the fuck world are we living in where there is serious discussion about Kanye West running for president?  I mean what the fuck.

We have a guy who openly wants to fuck his daughter as president. What else do you expect? 

 
That's a very wide margin of error. Trump winning is within the margin of error.

That's another great ad.  Pro tip to you "All Lives Matter" folks...in hundreds of American cities, Black Lives Matter advocates are walking just feet away from people who hate them openly carrying assault rifles.  Did you really think the tacit intimidation of inanimate statutes was gonna last?  You're gonna have to come up with something else to signal your toughness.  Because none of this circus is scaring anyone.  

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

It's lower than 2016 but it's still mind blowing that there are tens of millions of voters out there that aren't part of the Trump cult (I'm sure a chunk of them actually are) and have watched this guy over past 3.5 years and still think "man idk this is tough."

 

It's why, at the end of the day, I did think most of the currently "undecided" go for Trump. The positive is that Biden is consistently polling above what Trump will realistically get (he will not expand on the 46 percent from 2016), and has a polling average right at 50. There's no world where Trump wins with Biden at 50 percent of the vote.

 

typically undecideds break about 2-1 against incumbents. Obviously Trump isn't typical, so we will see. 

26 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
41 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:
 

That's a very wide margin of error. Trump winning is within the margin of error.

image.png.9e21c09a151f1a26ffcf8c68ea847239.png

28 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
43 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:
 

That's a very wide margin of error. Trump winning is within the margin of error.

if it makes you happier, change the confidence interval to 90%.  boom, outside the margin of error.

32 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
47 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:
 

That's a very wide margin of error. Trump winning is within the margin of error.

Seriously this.  Polls need to show a minimum 10 point lead across the board with a MOE of 4 or less.  I just made up those numbers.

Poll shows Biden up +5 in TX, surly calls it total bullshit. Poll shows dotard pulls even in AZ, surly says we’re fucking doomed. 

Polls can’t account for voter suppression and cheating. However, polls tell us exactly what they’re measuring which is voter preferences at this moment in time.  

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

It's lower than 2016 but it's still mind blowing that there are tens of millions of voters out there that aren't part of the Trump cult (I'm sure a chunk of them actually are) and have watched this guy over past 3.5 years and still think "man idk this is tough."

 

It's why, at the end of the day, I did think most of the currently "undecided" go for Trump. The positive is that Biden is consistently polling above what Trump will realistically get (he will not expand on the 46 percent from 2016), and has a polling average right at 50. There's no world where Trump wins with Biden at 50 percent of the vote.

 

Yeah, I think this is probably true. Undecided means embarrassed to admit they are going to vote for Trump, or will vote for Trump if they bother to show up. 

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

typically undecideds break about 2-1 against incumbents. Obviously Trump isn't typical, so we will see. 

I think that's normally because people just don't know the challenger- so if you don't feel like you want to vote for the incumbent then more likely you land on the challenger. 

I think with Trump it's a viceral decision to no matter what vote against him.  People don't need to know the challenger.  They know they don't want to vote for him.  These are people that, for whatever reason, haven't eliminated him. I feel like they probably break for him (call it 2-1 breaking his way instead of the 2-1 for the challenger like you would expect).  That's still a huge drubbing for him at the polls. 

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