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Just now, InkaUtexas said:

So what are the guesses for the 10AM update? Laura shifting west? 

Almost guaranteed the cone shifts westward. 

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Just now, InkaUtexas said:

So what are the guesses for the 10AM update? Laura shifting west? 

storm raining GIF by Family Guy

What’s funny is they’re saying they don’t want to put another 7 million people in play(Houston area) unless they have to, yet they’ve been liberal enough bouncing that cone around over the last few

3 hours ago, tejas60 said:

Galveston just issued a mandatory evacuation by noon today.

This. Fuck. Good luck boat. Stand fast

Westward shift followed by panic in Houston

My chief won’t believe it until the nhc says it

Where do we place our bets? I say this doesn’t shift west, hits TX/LA border as a Cat 2. There’s a direct negative correlation between how catastrophic a storm is predicted to be and how bad it actually is. Everytime.

1 minute ago, Helobious said:

Where do we place our bets? I say this doesn’t shift west, hits TX/LA border as a Cat 2. There’s a direct negative correlation between how catastrophic a storm is predicted to be and how bad it actually is. Everytime.

This guy gets it.

No change in the NHC path but hurricane warning up from San Luis to Morgan City and tropical storm warning now for all of Houston metro counties. 

1 minute ago, Bert Orange said:

Well, it moved west. A mm. 

Until the GFS and the other models start moving west, the NHC is staying East. Either a big coup for the Euro or a big bust. I’m very curious to see the next GFS and Euro runs the next 2-3 hours and see who blinks. 

Levi Cowen at Tropical Tidbits is very good. He nailed Marco’s demise the day before.

Yesterday he was worried about Laura intensifying and said folks in Texas needed to look out for a west shift.

The Euro model nailed Harvey, which was an anomalous storm, and was an outlier then too at times. That said, I hope it's wrong this time. 

Edited by Mack Tripper

Hopefully it stays right at the border. But if Laura ends up nailing Houston and they don't shift guidance until late tonight and people feel like they only thought they were truly in danger for one day - people are going to be hurt and upset. OTOH most people I know down there are vets of Ike and leaving today. 

When has the Euro model been wrong lately? It usually has been the best...

The Space City Weather guys seem like they are torn - I think they believe in the Euro model more than any of the others, but they don't want to contradict the NHS on such a consequential forecast. 

Here's to hoping it stays east.

Jesus Christ the 12z GFS is back a little more East into Louisiana. That’s why the NHC didn’t move. 

New Euro coming in a couple of hours. 
 

image.thumb.png.96789eecd1e41d6a1fb8149b8da5c2b6.png

7 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

The Space City Weather guys seem like they are torn - I think they believe in the Euro model more than any of the others, but they don't want to contradict the NHS on such a consequential forecast. 

Here's to hoping it stays east.

Yep.  The last radar image I looked at (about 15 minutes ago) showed a wobble north, but that will coincide with a wobble west as the storm starts to strengthen and organize now that it's in the open water.  How big of a wobble west will be pretty damn telling with where this one's gonna go.  The bigger the wobble, the more Texas the storm gets. 

I don't feel like dealing with this shit right now, so my prediction is that it stays east and doesn't intensify past a cat 2.

Edited by NeverMarryAStripper

6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

The bigger the wobble, the more Texas the storm gets. 

That's a pretty Texas sentence, right there.

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5 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Jesus Christ the 12z GFS is back a little more East into Louisiana. That’s why the NHC didn’t move. 

New Euro coming in a couple of hours. 
 

image.thumb.png.96789eecd1e41d6a1fb8149b8da5c2b6.png

Let's all pause a moment to enjoy the fact that the most powerful supercomputers on Earth are furiously churning around the clock in order to generate big throbbing rainbow dick pics.

7 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Jesus Christ the 12z GFS is back a little more East into Louisiana. That’s why the NHC didn’t move. 

New Euro coming in a couple of hours. 
 

image.thumb.png.96789eecd1e41d6a1fb8149b8da5c2b6.png

It’s actually directly on the TX/LA border. The higher winds to right of center are what are depicted. 

7 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Jesus Christ the 12z GFS is back a little more East into Louisiana. That’s why the NHC didn’t move. 

New Euro coming in a couple of hours. 
 

image.thumb.png.96789eecd1e41d6a1fb8149b8da5c2b6.png

Euro will likely shift a little east, as it seems to during the day. It if doesn't, well shit. 

9 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Jesus Christ the 12z GFS is back a little more East into Louisiana. That’s why the NHC didn’t move. 

New Euro coming in a couple of hours. 
 

Euro cannot get here fast enough. 

26 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

But if Laura ends up nailing Houston and they don't shift guidance until late tonight and people feel like they only thought they were truly in danger for one day - people are going to be hurt and upset.

the big lebowski dude GIF

Qpo

10 minutes ago, Bert Orange said:

It’s actually directly on the TX/LA border. The higher winds to right of center are what are depicted. 

You’re right. Not as far east as I thought.

Edited by crimsonlonghorn

What time is Euro running?

And yeah the Space City guys are sort of punting at this point, reading between the lines they seem stumped by NHC not moving the forecast but they won’t formally contradict it, and instead giving guidance on various scenarios.

Unfortunately decisions have to be made right now for people

1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

@leroy

If we want to get technical, the WP-3D is a variant of the P-3 which is a variant of the L-188 Electra, all of which share the same wings and Allison engines.

They're Electras to me, dammit. 

i didn't know about the fuselage hack, was that for the P-3 or just the WP-3D ?

All P-3 variants.  There were some structural changes to the wings as well to support hard points.  

Just now, Leeroy Jenkins said:

All P-3 variants.  There were some structural changes to the wings as well to support hard points.  

Listen to this man - he's P-Med.

Basically if this thing comes ashore around San Louis, everything in the greater Houston area is going to get nailed? Fort Bend, Harris, Liberty, etc etc??

Basically if this thing comes ashore around San Louis, everything in the greater Houston area is going to get nailed? Fort Bend, Harris, Liberty, etc etc??
Idk where San Louis is but I'm pretty sure Houston is fine if it hits there.
12 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

Basically if this thing comes ashore around San Louis, everything in the greater Houston area is going to get nailed? Fort Bend, Harris, Liberty, etc etc??

Cat 4 coming up that way means 140 MPH sustained winds and gusts approaching 200 MPH. Utter destruction and downed trees everywhere, especially close to the coast. Not quite as bad north in Fort Bend and Harris but still plenty bad. 

Roads are starting to back up towards the coast and also out of Beaumont. People need to be headed east and west and south and not just north. 

Would definitely avoid north since that's the one thing all the models agree on.

9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
22 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:
Basically if this thing comes ashore around San Louis, everything in the greater Houston area is going to get nailed? Fort Bend, Harris, Liberty, etc etc??

Idk where San Louis is but I'm pretty sure Houston is fine if it hits there.

nvm. iswydt

Edited by tejas60

44 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That's a pretty Texas sentence, right there.

Would have received bonus points if he’d put “fixin’ to” in there somewhere. 

19 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
32 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:
Basically if this thing comes ashore around San Louis, everything in the greater Houston area is going to get nailed? Fort Bend, Harris, Liberty, etc etc??

Idk where San Louis is but I'm pretty sure Houston is fine if it hits there.

Mizzurah

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