August 25, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, Gatorubet said: 48 hours out from landfall, up to a 90 mile hit uncertainty is still in play. Spaghetti track at your peril on Tuesday afternoon for a Thursday morning storm. Just sayin’ Yup, every wobble will matter. I am glad the euro didn't go further west though.
August 25, 20205 yr Yeah, I’m not spiking the football until I see it pass us by. We are still forecast to get some pretty decent winds, are we not? There will be power outages around Houston at the very least.
August 25, 20205 yr 3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said: 48 hours out from landfall, up to a 90 mile hit uncertainty is still in play. Spaghetti track at your peril on Tuesday afternoon for a Thursday morning storm. Just sayin’ Yep. Not like weather forecasts have been off in the past.
August 25, 20205 yr Many of you are discounting the 2020 factor. Take a given situation, add a ton of liquid feces, then set it on fire as it reaches its worst possible iteration. Taking that into account, my prediction is the entirety of the state ends up under water and we all have to move to Oklahoma.
August 25, 20205 yr Someone on the weather channel mentioned yesterday that nearly a 1/3 of the time, a storm deviates outside the cone of uncertainty.
August 25, 20205 yr Popular Post 2 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said: Someone on the weather channel mentioned yesterday that nearly a 1/3 of the time, a storm deviates outside the cone of uncertainty. Then they should just make the cone 1/3 bigger. Duh.
August 25, 20205 yr Popular Post 3 minutes ago, hookemATL said: Many of you are discounting the 2020 factor. Take a given situation, add a ton of liquid feces, then set it on fire as it reaches its worst possible iteration. Taking that into account, my prediction is the entirety of the state ends up under water and we all have to move to Oklahoma. You may all go to hell, I will go....ahead and drown in Texas.
August 25, 20205 yr https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/laura-expected-to-make-landfall-in-texas-or-louisiana-as-major-hurricane/Dr. Jeff Masters of old Cat 6 Weather blog at Weather Underground moved to Yale once Weather channel cut costs and closed it down. His take today
August 25, 20205 yr 36 hours out average track error is like 70 miles, or the distance from houston to beaumont. at least, i think that's what this says. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/the-most-reliable-hurricane-models-according-to-their-2019-performance/ Edited August 25, 20205 yr by elfenix
August 25, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said: Someone on the weather channel mentioned yesterday that nearly a 1/3 of the time, a storm deviates outside the cone of uncertainty. I hope that person was wearing sex panther
August 25, 20205 yr 28 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said: Yeah I think the Houston area is in the clear barring a 50 mile shift last minute I was young, but didn't Alicia shift (albeit eastward) a fairly short time before landfall. I recall my dad's going down to our place near Sealy to ride it out while we stayed in Houston. He never even lost power and we had trees falling on the house. Good times.
August 25, 20205 yr I dunno guys, I've been checking out a lot of spaghetti models pages, and I just can't get a good read on things: I mean....NONE of those scream "Beaumont" to me.
August 25, 20205 yr 6 minutes ago, miguelito said: Then they should just make the cone 1/3 bigger. Duh.
August 25, 20205 yr 11 minutes ago, hookemATL said: Many of you are discounting the 2020 factor. Take a given situation, add a ton of liquid feces, then set it on fire as it reaches its worst possible iteration. Taking that into account, my prediction is the entirety of the state ends up under water and we all have to move to Oklahoma. Picks up violin. "Gentlemen, it has been an honor playing with you." 5 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said: It’s all about the girth. It's the motion of the ocean.
August 25, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said: I dunno guys, I've been checking out a lot of spaghetti models pages, and I just can't get a good read on things: I mean....NONE of those scream "Beaumont" to me. Judging by the wood paneling and the jawline on #2, she could be a Beaumont candidate.
August 25, 20205 yr Yeah I think the Houston area is in the clear barring a 50 mile shift last minute "I think the Houston area is in the clear unless something very possible happens."Also, Houston area is a big place. Assuming the majority of the models are right, I wouldn't want to live in Baytown or Liberty or something right now.
August 25, 20205 yr We evacuated from the bmt area to Waco, tons of evacuees coming in. This is going to be a shitty few days
August 25, 20205 yr 31 minutes ago, dcbc said: I was young, but didn't Alicia shift (albeit eastward) a fairly short time before landfall. I recall my dad's going down to our place near Sealy to ride it out while we stayed in Houston. He never even lost power and we had trees falling on the house. Good times. Ike shifted east too about three days out. Edited August 25, 20205 yr by crimsonlonghorn
August 25, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, Scraps said: and FYI i live in Baytown lol Then by your own standards you are doing it wrong.
August 25, 20205 yr Popular Post 7 minutes ago, Cody2422 said: We evacuated from the bmt area to Waco, Relocating from Beaumont to Waco? That’s like moving from Fallujah to Allepo.
August 25, 20205 yr 13 minutes ago, Cody2422 said: We evacuated from the bmt area to Waco, tons of evacuees coming in. This is going to be a shitty few days Watch your cornhole.
August 25, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said: Relocating from Beaumont to Waco? That’s like moving from Fallujah to Allepo. Yeah not ideal.
August 25, 20205 yr 1 minute ago, Cody2422 said: Yeah not ideal. I hear they're getting some restaurants.
August 25, 20205 yr We evacuated from the bmt area to Waco, tons of evacuees coming in. This is going to be a shitty few days Left Beaumont at 1030, approaching Austin now. Traffic wasn't even heavy. On 290 and its light.My stepbrother/SIL, Mom, Dad, Stepmom all stayed. My dad is actually more scared of getting covid than enduring the coming shitstorm.I urged them all to leave. This morning I called my only sibling and told her that they have free will and resources so i don't have guilt in leaving. Plus ya know, im still 25 days after a bad case of Covid and am still healing. Plus I'm out of PTO at work due to the illness and my job is remote, so I need to work. Staying with friends in Leander.
August 25, 20205 yr 44 minutes ago, Brisketexan said: I dunno guys, I've been checking out a lot of spaghetti models pages, and I just can't get a good read on things: I mean....NONE of those scream "Beaumont" to me. Where is the mountain in Beaumont
August 25, 20205 yr 4PM NHC update shows no change from earlier. Quote There is no change in the forecast philosophy since the last advisory. The new forecast track has a slight eastward nudge during the first 12-24 h, but the landfall position is almost unchanged from that of the previous forecast. It should the be noted that the current forecast track lies to the east of the ECMWF and UKMET models, so it is still possible that the forecast track could nudge westward in later advisories.
August 25, 20205 yr Avoid I 10 west of Katy to Columbus parking lot during normal times Edited August 25, 20205 yr by tx 3 putt
August 25, 20205 yr 13 minutes ago, gmr548 said: 21 minutes ago, Hate said: Conroe ISD has canceled all classes through Thursday. Conroe has schools? The Woodlands is in CISD
August 25, 20205 yr Spring Branch ISD has cancelled online classes for tomorrow and Thursday. My daughters very small private school is supposed to start on Thursday. I haven't heard anything about their status yet.
August 25, 20205 yr 30 minutes ago, Hate said: Conroe ISD has canceled all classes through Thursday. WTF for? You can just go virtual.
August 25, 20205 yr I live in Columbus. I-10 traffic on a normal day due to construction is ridiculous. Came out of Houston on 90-A through East Bernard and Eagle Lake this afternoon and there is already a decent amount of traffic on it. Long backups at any stop signs.
August 25, 20205 yr 5 minutes ago, Moby Ric said: WTF for? You can just go virtual. Oh, I dunno, power might go out? Risk for last minute evacuation? Potential to have to take in friends/family causing disruption in the home...where the kids have to be able to focus on online instruction? Shit, the teachers themselves may not live in the district and would typically commute from places closer to the current path and might also have to evacuate or lose power. There's a number of good reasons just off the top of my head.
August 25, 20205 yr I dont understand why I10 from Houston to SA isn't just six lanes each way. The ROW is there and its straight as an arrow.
August 25, 20205 yr 14 minutes ago, Duke Silver said: I live in Columbus. I-10 traffic on a normal day due to construction is ridiculous. Came out of Houston on 90-A through East Bernard and Eagle Lake this afternoon and there is already a decent amount of traffic on it. Long backups at any stop signs. Schobels and Nancy's are probably raking in the business.
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