July 29, 20205 yr 9 hours ago, Telegraph_it said: So the relocation of the center southward makes a possible run at the gulf more likely? Its now tracking up the west side of Florida, none of it good, even if it stays a TS/TD, thats a lot of rain. Nothing they can't handle, but still...
July 31, 20205 yr On 7/22/2020 at 2:06 PM, miguelito said: Sooo, watch out North Carolina! Link to the first pic if it doesn't show up. It's kind of cool: http://i.imgur.com/Gi7Ip28.gif Edited July 31, 20205 yr by miguelito gif
July 31, 20205 yr 52 minutes ago, miguelito said: Link to the first pic if it doesn't show up. It's kind of cool: http://i.imgur.com/Gi7Ip28.gif It's like The Bahamas crop-dusted the SE coast
August 3, 20205 yr Isaias looks like it's going to hammer the Carolinas then head up the east coast to achieve superstorm status.
August 5, 20205 yr Who knew that people in a landlocked state in the middle of the country were experts in hurricanes?
August 6, 20205 yr NOAA predicting an absurd season as well https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extremely-active-hurricane-season-possible-for-atlantic-basin
August 6, 20205 yr On 8/5/2020 at 11:44 AM, Neonmoon said: Colorado State forecasters are high as fuck.
August 6, 20205 yr Lol you guys maybe don't know about Bill Gray at CSU, one of the most important figures in the development the freaking research and knowledge in history, and when you think about it, he must have been smart, because why would you do hurricane research at a coastal college which can be messed up by hurricanes? Your way to the mountains in the middle of the continent, why not? Anyway, he was a real giant in the field, died in 2016 at age 86.
August 6, 20205 yr 5 hours ago, Calihorn said: NOAA predicting an absurd season as well https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extremely-active-hurricane-season-possible-for-atlantic-basin Omar coming? Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiit
August 7, 20205 yr Seems this is always the prediction. We've had four consecutive above average Atlantic seasons and 2019 was the fourth most active on record, so it's not like it's off base. Edit: CSU last year predicted 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 majors in April forecast. 14-7-2 in its August update. It ended up 18-6-2. So last year's forecast wasn't wildly above average or anything either.
August 16, 20205 yr It's time to start watching the tropics. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located a couple of hundred miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle, located several hundred miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. 1. A fast-moving tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is likely to limit development while the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today and Monday and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. After that time, the system is expected to move more slowly westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for development during the middle to latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. Another tropical wave located just west of the coast of Africa is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days, and some development will be possible by the middle to latter part of the week as environmental conditions become more conducive while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
August 18, 20205 yr Jeff Linder Tropics update. (08/18) A pair of tropical waves continues westward. 97L: Tropical wave axis has moved into the eastern Caribbean Sea overnight and continues westward at around 20mph. Visible satellite images show a sharp wave axis and scattered deep convection near and around the wave envelop. The fast forward motion is expected to slow in the next 48 hours as 97L reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea. While deterministic model solution are not overly impressed with this wave, several of the CMC and GFS ensemble members continue to show development of 97L has it reaches the western Caribbean Sea this weekend. NHC currently gives 97L a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days. The steering pattern over the Gulf of Mexico will be complex this weekend as the current trough over the NW Gulf of Mexico slowly begins to weaken and lift northward while a sub-tropical ridge over the southwest Atlantic begins to build westward toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico. With this steering, if 97L were to develop, it would likely get pulled into the Gulf of Mexico and then slow its forward motion as the steering changes over the Gulf of Mexico from being dominated by a strong and deep trough to greater influences from the sub-tropical ridge. Deterministic and ensemble guidance this morning has significant spread after days 4-5 and has had little consistency on run to run of the models. With this said, 97L will need to be monitored closely for development in the western Caribbean Sea and for a potential movement into the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend. 98L: A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean about 900 miles SW of the Cape Verde Island is moving slowly westward. This wave is attached to the mid Atlantic ITCZ or monsoon trough currently and in addition has a second tropical wave close to its east. This is a complex tropical cyclone genesis profile and global forecast models have been struggling with how and when 98L develops over the last 24 hours. Little to no development is going to happen as long as 98L is attached to the ITCZ. However once 98L moves away from the ITCZ, development chances increase and NHC currently gives the system a 90% chance of development over the next 5 days. A stout mid level high pressure ridge is in place over the central Atlantic Ocean and this will drive 98L westward over the next 5 days. This ridge is forecast to build westward and should keep the system on a general WNW to W track toward or just north of the Caribbean Islands by this weekend. A stronger, more developed, system will track likely more to the right while a weaker, more shallow system will likely track more leftward. There is a fair amount of uncertainty with 98L both on when and where an actual low level center forms and how strong the system may become in the longer range.
August 18, 20205 yr 13 hours ago, CleverNickname said: Love Levi. Does Doc Masters have a new wunderground type blog? Kind of https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/06/jeff-masters-bob-henson-to-post-regularly-for-ycc/
August 19, 20205 yr GFS-Para (the upgraded GFS coming soon) has what looks like a major into Houston. (Its kinda hard to tell based on the resolution how strong it exactly is, the pressure is 950 mb which is major strength).
August 19, 20205 yr Well that narrows it down.. EECF may need to sit this one out. Edit - Didn't even see UKM. Their model involves magic and time travel. Edited August 19, 20205 yr by UT_OB1
August 19, 20205 yr 1 minute ago, UT_OB1 said: Well that narrows it down.. EECF may need to sit this one out. Think that might be for 98L
August 19, 20205 yr 17 minutes ago, Neonmoon said: Lining up to run a train on us? 98L is our concern, dude. Bad feeling about that one.
August 19, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, Calihorn said: GFS-Para (the upgraded GFS coming soon) has what looks like a major into Houston. (Its kinda hard to tell based on the resolution how strong it exactly is, the pressure is 950 mb which is major strength). I'll take the bullseye now.
August 19, 20205 yr For 97L If the system strengthens over the next couple of days, it is more likely to be pulled north, into the central Gulf of Mexico, and then toward Louisiana or the Florida panhandle. Under this scenario it could well become a hurricane. If the system remains weaker, it likely plows into the Bay of Campeche, and takes a more westward track into Mexico or South Texas by Monday or Tuesday of next week as more of a rainmaker. Needless to say all of these scenarios are still in play, and considerable uncertainty will likely remain until 97L starts to develop. Matt or myself will be back this afternoon to provide an update on this system, and of course we’ll be with you through the duration. https://spacecityweather.com/hot-and-sunny-through-the-weekend-then-its-up-to-the-tropics/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
August 19, 20205 yr 27 minutes ago, Steamboat1874 said: It will not rain a drop in Central Texas from any of these.......damnit. The forcefield rules over all
August 19, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, Neonmoon said: The forcefield rules over all The one force to rule them all.
August 19, 20205 yr 9 minutes ago, Neonmoon said: Sooo...ugh, what if those two meet in the middle of the Gulf? Thanos-Cane 2020? They shear the fuck out of eachother
August 19, 20205 yr 11 minutes ago, Neonmoon said: Sooo...ugh, what if those two meet in the middle of the Gulf? Thanos-Cane 2020? Sharknados
August 19, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, Neonmoon said: Sooo...ugh, what if those two meet in the middle of the Gulf? Thanos-Cane 2020? Two big, fat, hot, humid fuckers combine? It's like a romance story beginning on the sugary snack aisle of Walmart.
August 20, 20205 yr They're flying into L97 tomorrow, I'm sure L98 soon after, and whatever that is west of Mexico.
August 20, 20205 yr 10 hours ago, Dewey said: They're flying into L97 tomorrow, I'm sure L98 soon after, and whatever that is west of Mexico. Hurricane Genevieve
August 20, 20205 yr 47 minutes ago, Hate said: Some models for what has now become TD 14. This chart extracted from the latest issue of "Fuck That Shit Monthly: a journal of shit that nope, nuh-uh, no fucking way"
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