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Client's Proposal Coordinator just flew back to the Dominican Republic to visit family. We have a big project starting on Monday and her boss is panicking. 

I advised her to stock up on beer and rum and send lots of pictures. He did not think that was funny. Guess I should have told her to find a blue shed. 

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Many years ago it was made abundantly clear that the streams should never be crossed. These things are trending towards each other nicely.

I bet two getting so close to each other gives the models a good work out.

Guess I'll just by bread and peanut butter when I'm at the store.... get home and grill up all the meat I have in the freezer. Make a killer chicken salad 

 

So TD13 will cause TD14 to stall over Houston.
2 hours ago, XYZ said:

Ugh, I was scheduled to go to Corpus Monday-Thursday for work.

In Corpus you will never even know there is a storm in the gulf. This thing isn’t coming anywhere near us. Hopefully you weren’t planning to work on the new pipeline in the port that blew up this morning.

Edited by justhookit


So TD13 will cause TD14 to stall over Houston.
That would fucking suck, but not too surprising with how fucked up this year has been.

Here are the latest Euro models for Tuesday morning.  I'll be completely stocked up on everything I need as of tonight.  Everything has trended westward today as these systems aren't as strong as they were forecast to be yet, which is good, but some models have suggested that TS Laura could follow TD 14 into Texas.  yTaXkKF.png

 

yEpZ8wM.png

Edited by Hate

3 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Christ, does this mean I need to go to heb tonight?

 

If only it was open, alas......

Welp. If it's going east, something better change quickly because we're going to be on the bad side now. 

That low settling over Central Texas on Wednesday would be perfect to top off the lakes for the rest of the year.

1 minute ago, Hate said:

That low settling over Central Texas on Wednesday would be perfect to top off the lakes for the rest of the year.

You know, that would be just PERFECT.  Why?  Because I've got a dove lease where the best draw is our stock tanks -- great to have water to draw them in during a dry year, which this is.  But, I mean, why WOULDN'T mother nature scatter water all over creation a week before opening day, scattering all the birds?

Happened to us in 2001.  I was out scouting birds a week before opening day.  Lost count at 1,000 shootable birds over our tank.  As we were leaving that day, it started raining.....and kept raining for 5 days.  Went out on opening day.  Had to drive through mud to get there.  Saw a dozen birds.

When we get to T, look out.  2020 has simulation set to ludicrous speed.

19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You know, that would be just PERFECT.  Why?  Because I've got a dove lease where the best draw is our stock tanks -- great to have water to draw them in during a dry year, which this is.  But, I mean, why WOULDN'T mother nature scatter water all over creation a week before opening day, scattering all the birds?

Happened to us in 2001.  I was out scouting birds a week before opening day.  Lost count at 1,000 shootable birds over our tank.  As we were leaving that day, it started raining.....and kept raining for 5 days.  Went out on opening day.  Had to drive through mud to get there.  Saw a dozen birds.

Same here.  Have a smoking pasture for opening but why not, 2020?  You merciless bitch of a year.

LOL at Cat 1.  

I've seen too many of these 'unexpectedly' rapidly blow up to like a Cat. 3, then weaken during eyewall replacement, and hit the coast as a restrengthening 2 with a larger storm surge.

I've also seen shear win out, but don't count on it.

Edited by clapclapclap
Also also: I've seen fire and I've seen rain

2 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

LOL at Cat 1.  

I've seen too many of these 'unexpectedly' rapidly blow up to like a Cat. 3, then weaken during eyewall replacement, and hit the coast as a restrengthening 2 with a larger storm surge.

I've also seen shear win out, but don't count on it.

So, are we fucked or not?

Edited by Teddyballgame

19 minutes ago, Teddyballgame said:

So, are we fucked or not?

At this point, we're definitely screwed.  Too early to tell if we're totally fucked or not....

32 minutes ago, Stella Link said:

At this point, we're definitely screwed.  Too early to tell if we're totally fucked or not....

It’s 2020.  We’re fucked.

9 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Who do I have to fuck or kill for TD14 to move west a hundred miles?

image.thumb.png.78d3425c69ebb3416b65406570a5d483.png
 

So, who was it and did you get breakfast?

Careful what you ask for. The latest Euro models bring Laura our was as well.

a4c8a708b4f64881b64aee7e1c3f85b0.jpg

30 minutes ago, Hate said:

Careful what you ask for. The latest Euro models bring Laura our was as well.

a4c8a708b4f64881b64aee7e1c3f85b0.jpg

There's no way

Laura also looks like it could strengthen quite a bit more than TD14

aal13_2020082118_intensity_late_stream15

I mean, if an already well developed storm hangs around the Gulf for a few days in August, then yeah, it's going to blow up.

1 hour ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

image.thumb.png.78d3425c69ebb3416b65406570a5d483.png
 

So, who was it and did you get breakfast?

South Austin’s mother, and yes, a brisket taco

 But I’m not going to celebrate yet. My weather outlook still doesn’t say much rain for Austin. Are there rainless tropical depressions?

Here is the latest forecast track from the NHC. Notice that there is very little movement from Tuesday to Wednesday. Someone is going to get a lot of rain out of this if the forecast holds true.

1933bd88f7d697e604dc32d92fe4872c.jpg

Huge shift west for Laura. Looks like Panhandle of FL and AL are safe now. 

From recon:

F. Eye Character: Open from the northwest to the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles

 

Looks like it will be hurricane Marco soon

Current steering for Marco is basically due north, when that ridge builds back in determines where in Texas it will end up

Fuck you 2020.  I eagerly look forward to the plague of frogs.

I'm starting to get the feeling that Houston is going to avoid a large windy storm out of this. If Marco gets stronger, Marco goes further east. If Laura gets stronger, Laura stays further south. 

No A/C and closed grocery stores and gas stations during Ike was the most miserable part, so I'll take it. 

Even if we get several inches of rain, which still feels very likely, it will almost certainly not be another Harvey, which was very rare in terms of it stalling out like it did.

10 hours ago, Hate said:

Here is the latest forecast track from the NHC. Notice that there is very little movement from Tuesday to Wednesday. Someone is going to get a lot of rain out of this if the forecast holds true.

1933bd88f7d697e604dc32d92fe4872c.jpg

Though I barely passed Troy Kimmel's 'Weather & Climate' class years ago...I promise you this forecast map is 100% accurate.  Because that Capital 'D' is precisely over South Austin's Mom's house at 8:00p on Wednesday night which is precisely where and when I give her the 'D'   And yeah, moisture levels...........HIGH

The storm itself won't cause that kind of damage, but people crowded together in shelters because of flooding is the last thing we need right now.

Edited by kevwun

Jesus.  I hope you all are enjoying pulling up your hems and dancing on chairs in fear.  I get that this is mostly people being funny but I’m just so tired of people doing this every August and September when it rains in the Leewards.  

Every model has been totally different each run and there’s no consistent track or intensity forecast for either storm run to run.  They don’t know where either of these storms are going, how big they’ll be, or even if they’re going to still exist in 72 hours. But the one thing every model says is this is not Carla, or Katrina, or Harvey. So if you’re going to pay attention to any of it, that would be the thing.  
 

You'll get some rain maybe.  But no one needs to be filling their bathtubs and buying extra gasoline.  

It might have something to do with the last 6 months of suck we've all gone through.

1 minute ago, kevwun said:

It might have something to do with the last 6 months of suck we've all gone through.

Spend 20 minutes listening to Levi Cowan from last night and then look at the new tracks this morning and you’ll feel better.   Spend another 10 looking at the differences since yesterday morning and you’ll feel even better. 
 

tropicaltidbits.com

 

trackthetropics.com

 

Dear weather channel: cut to Felicia Combs more often please

7 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Dear weather channel: cut to Felicia Combs more often please

Which quits first...her lips or those tits?

Trick question.  They're both on 24-hour shifts.  She's like a cartoon Telemundo meteorologist in real life, on a massive network.  

 

So resident surly forecasters...what of this second wave later this morning/early afternoon?  Looks like it's weakening but still there.  

Edited by Lobo

16 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Dear weather channel: cut to Felicia Combs more often please

 

11 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Which quits first...her lips or those tits?

Trick question.  They're both on 24-hour shifts.  She's like a cartoon Telemundo meteorologist in real life, on a massive network.  

 

So resident surly forecasters...what of this second wave later this morning/early afternoon?  Looks like it's weakening but still there.  

let me help y'all out

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THICC

16 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:
Quote

The toads are not protected by any conservation laws but toad hunters do have to abide by the state's anti-cruelty law. The humane way to terminate the toads is to apply a small dab of Orajel or a similar numbing agent on it while wearing latex or rubber gloves. After a few minutes, place them in a plastic bag and freeze them for 48 hours. Then dispose of them.

I'm guessing that's exactly how the majority of these encounters in Florida are going down.

attachment.php?attachmentid=165151&stc=1 

14 hours ago, Stella Link said:

At this point, we're definitely screwed.  Too early to tell if we're totally fucked or not....

There's a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive. With all dead, well, with all dead there's usually only one thing you can do.

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