August 13, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, babysdaddy said: I thought that however I see daily tweets from Clay Jenkins telling people there are no lines at testing sites. Anecdotally it seems people are not going to get tested, not that there is a shortage. I'm wondering how much of it is related to increased availability of 'rapid testing' (some of which I believe aren't very accurate and are not counted in official results) combined with the prior media coverage of long testing lines/long delays in getting results. Clay Jenkins said "demand" was down significantly so at least in Dallas it's not like testing isn't available.
August 13, 20205 yr Maybe (and I realize this is crazy talk) infections are actually going down and only individuals who feel they may be infected are getting tested?
August 13, 20205 yr The infections are going down, but not at the rate tests are dropping. From the Cloak Room thread, I think the answer has been hit upon. It is a combination of tests results taking so long that they are pretty much worthless and people just being tired of dealing with the virus. If someone gets exposed, they stay home for 14 days and then go back to work. If they develop symptoms they may get tested, but if the results take 10 days, it's not worth getting a swab stuck in your brain to a lot of people. Edited August 13, 20205 yr by kevwun
August 13, 20205 yr 5 minutes ago, Message Board User said: Maybe (and I realize this is crazy talk) infections are actually going down and only individuals who feel they may be infected are getting tested? Definitely the case in Dallas. Hospitalization is low and Dallas hospital lab test positivity rate is lowest it has been since first week of June. But it is very odd that the overall positivity rate in the state remains high.
August 13, 20205 yr Speaking of... https://mobile.twitter.com/Alicia_Smith19/status/1293977340700237824
August 13, 20205 yr 22 minutes ago, kevwun said: The infections are going down, but not at the rate tests are dropping. From the Cloak Room thread, I think the answer has been hit upon. It is a combination of tests results taking so long that they are pretty much worthless and people just being tired of dealing with the virus. If someone gets exposed, they stay home for 14 days and then go back to work. If they develop symptoms they may get tested, but if the results take 10 days, it's not worth getting a swab stuck in your brain to a lot of people. That wouldn’t explain the steady decrease in hospitalizations, even if people are tired of the virus and tired of the testing.
August 13, 20205 yr The virus is spreading slower than it was at it's peak. I think mask usage has firmly kicked in in helping slow it. We're just not back down to the levels were were at before the opening spike. This is the same place we were at when we rushed re-opening. Edited August 13, 20205 yr by kevwun
August 13, 20205 yr 33 minutes ago, kevwun said: The infections are going down, but not at the rate tests are dropping. From the Cloak Room thread, I think the answer has been hit upon. It is a combination of tests results taking so long that they are pretty much worthless and people just being tired of dealing with the virus. If someone gets exposed, they stay home for 14 days and then go back to work. If they develop symptoms they may get tested, but if the results take 10 days, it's not worth getting a swab stuck in your brain to a lot of people. We've rolled dozens through the clinic at this point as we test now if someone has the sniffles. It hasn't taken 10 days once.
August 13, 20205 yr That, like everything with the virus, seems to fluctuate wildly from place to place.
August 13, 20205 yr The virus is spreading slower than it was at it's peak. I think mask usage has firmly kicked in in helping slow it. We're just not back down to the levels were were at before the opening spike. This is the same place we were at when we rushed re-opening.Positivity rate should be dropping as well. That's the strange part.
August 13, 20205 yr 5 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said: Ever heard of concierge service at the doctor? Yeah, but that is very different than paying tuition while keeping your kid at home. Plus, concierge services usually work outside of insurance.
August 13, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, Message Board User said: That wouldn’t explain the steady decrease in hospitalizations, even if people are tired of the virus and tired of the testing. Could be a different, lesser strain going around.
August 13, 20205 yr 28 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said: Could be a different, lesser strain going around. Recent article I’ve read suggests as many as 6 different strains, so there may be some troof in what you said. @ChiTownDoc has also been saying that the lethality of the virus will eventually lessen, if I’m recalling his argument correctly.
August 13, 20205 yr 36 minutes ago, Message Board User said: Recent article I’ve read suggests as many as 6 different strains, so there may be some troof in what you said. @ChiTownDoc has also been saying that the lethality of the virus will eventually lessen, if I’m recalling his argument correctly. Yep, theoretically virus's want to spread more and be less deadly - does no good to kill your host...not that they actively think but it just makes sense the less deadly strain will spread more than the deadly one. If you don't understand that, I can't help.
August 13, 20205 yr Yikes. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/investigations/article/covid-death-toll-houston-tx-texas-higher-data-15478269.php Quote Between the beginning of the local pandemic and the end of July, 95,000 deaths were reported in Texas, according to U.S. Centers for Disease Control data. Based on historical mortality records and predictive modeling, government epidemiologists would have expected to see about 82,500 deaths during that time. The CDC attributed more than 7,100 deaths to COVID-19, but that leaves roughly 5,500 more than expected and with no identified tie to the pandemic. The CDC’s chief of mortality, Dr. Bob Anderson, said these “excess deaths” are likely from a range of pandemic-related problems, including misclassifications because doctors did not initially understand the many ways that COVID-19 affects the circulatory system and results in a stroke or a heart attack.
August 13, 20205 yr 14 minutes ago, Ten Bears said: Yikes. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/investigations/article/covid-death-toll-houston-tx-texas-higher-data-15478269.php Also deferred care for acute coronary symptoms, etc.
August 13, 20205 yr Today's Texas update - hospitalizations at lowest level since June 30. https://mobile.twitter.com/Alicia_Smith19/status/1294026942069563392
August 14, 20205 yr 4 hours ago, Anastasis said: Also deferred care for acute coronary symptoms, etc. If virus doesn't kill you pandemic will.
August 14, 20205 yr Saturday in Austin gonna be 108 degrees, pushing 120 with the heat index. Covid-19 gonna go bye-bye with that kinda heat. We are truly blessed. I mean, if you count your lawn starting on fire to spit the sprinkler system. It was a decent summer overall, given rainfall...but yeah---we about to get fucked. But at least the virus can't withstand the heat.
August 14, 20205 yr Bad day yesterday for the >60 age groups and as death lags infection we should see this manifest itself in those numbers in a couple of weeks. Large day for cases but still in the 200-300 "new normal" that Travis County has been living in with 297. Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 8/13 vs 8/12 0 7 19 59 73 42 32 30 13 22 297 % of Daily Change 0.00% 2.36% 6.40% 19.87% 24.58% 14.14% 10.77% 10.10% 4.38% 7.41% % of Total Cases 0.49% 2.93% 8.05% 26.50% 21.52% 16.33% 11.61% 6.65% 3.36% 2.56% 23,718
August 14, 20205 yr Win? https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/what-we-know-about-the-36-coronavirus-patients-in-texas/ Quote Texas discloses 95,000 previously-unreported COVID-19 tests; positive rate drops 8% as a result Quote The state’s first case of COVID-19 was reported March 4 in Fort Bend County. As of August 13, Texas has officially reported 513,575 cases of COVID-19 in the state.
August 14, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, Message Board User said: That's a good trend. Wish the drop was steeper.
August 14, 20205 yr Is there any theories on why it drops? Just behavioral? There is no indication that we will be doing anything other than a roller coaster of up and down indefinitely imo because we can’t keep R < 1 long enough to wipe it out.
August 14, 20205 yr 20 minutes ago, gmr548 said: 29 minutes ago, Anastasis said: That's a good trend. Wish the drop was steeper. "Just wait for October" - aggy One day at a time.
August 14, 20205 yr 29 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said: Is there any theories on why it drops? Just behavioral? There is no indication that we will be doing anything other than a roller coaster of up and down indefinitely imo because we can’t keep R < 1 long enough to wipe it out. I think it's 100% behavioral. People see numbers going down and they let down their guard. Then it comes back and they get serious about it again.
August 14, 20205 yr 25 minutes ago, Chewbacca said: I think it's 100% behavioral. People see numbers going down and they let down their guard. Then it comes back and they get serious about it again. spot on. i think this cycle will repeat until the vaccine outcome is certain
August 14, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, gmr548 said: 1 hour ago, Anastasis said: That's a good trend. Wish the drop was steeper. "Just wait for October" - aggy Is that when aggy is rolling out their vaccine that the feds gave them $265 million for? Pretty lucrative work for a bunch of folks who are expert in transmission of diseases between animals and humans.
August 14, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, strangulation! said: spot on. i think this cycle will repeat until the vaccine outcome is certain Since I don't believe we'll ever have an effective vaccine, I think this cycle will repeat until the virus burns itself out/we reach herd immunity.
August 15, 20205 yr Furk. Aggy rollercoaster time. https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/austin-public-health-releases-guidelines-for-schools-as-mayor-extends-mask-order/ Quote On Friday, Mayor Steve Adler extended the mandatory mask order for the city through Dec. 15. The order, set to go into effect Sunday, included new guidelines by Austin Public Health for schools. This comes as Travis County also renewed its mask order the same day. Quote The city’s order also extends other COVID-19 rules already in place. It says social gatherings of any size should be avoided or kept to a minimum. Gatherings of more than 10 people are still prohibited. Quote The Austin order also says schools must follow a phased-in approach if they teach more than one grade, unless it jeopardizes their funding from the Texas Education Agency. Austin Public Health released those guidelines for Austin and Travis County schools Friday. Quote Right now, we’re in Stage Four, so APH recommends no more than 25% capacity at schools. They also say schools should follow a phased-in reopening strategy and should stay at each stage for a minimum of two weeks before moving up to the next level.
August 15, 20205 yr Blog post on the general fuckery that's going on with the Texas positivity rate (which remains relatively high despite hospitalizations falling).
August 15, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, Message Board User said: Blog post on the general fuckery that's going on with the Texas positivity rate (which remains relatively high despite hospitalizations falling). I think this is what KXAN and Texas Tribune was discussing - KXAN had Texas adding 95,000 tests, Texas Tribune had 95,000 tests for just hospitals, for a total of 124,000 previously unreported tests. Long article, plenty of graphs: https://www.texastribune.org/2020/08/14/texas-coronavirus-testing-dshs/ Quote Earlier this week, Texas disclosed more than 124,000 previously unreported COVID-19 tests, at a time when the proportion of positive tests results was drawing attention. Quote After plummeting for days, the number of COVID-19 tests reported in Texas suddenly jumped by 124,693 on Thursday, which state health officials said was a result of coding errors and a system upgrade. Backlogs at a hospital lab and a commercial lab accounted for most of the tests, which could not be added to the state’s official tally until the coding errors had been fixed, said Lara Anton, spokesperson for the Texas Department of State Health Services. Quote Of the 124,000 tests reported on Thursday, approximately 95,000 were from a lab that served several hospitals, Anton said, adding that the lab sent files containing an error in one of the data fields, which DSHS' electronic system could not read. DSHS doesn’t know when the tests were actually conducted and is working with local health departments to find out, she said. Quote But DSHS' system wasn’t set up to handle the massive volume of test results it’s receiving during the pandemic, Anton said, adding that it would typically receive about 1,200 reports a day from labs across Texas before the pandemic. The state’s maximum capacity for processing electronic lab reports was 48,000 a day, but at the height of the pandemic in July, it frequently received more than that, Anton said. Quote When DSHS upgraded its lab reporting system on Aug. 1, giving it the capacity to process more than 100,000 electronically-submitted test results per day, some of those backlogged tests also were counted for the first time, Anton said. Quote The sudden increase in the number of tests made Texas’ seven-day positivity rate drop from a record-high 24.5% to 16%. The positivity rate is the ratio of positive cases to the number of tests conducted, a metric that Gov. Greg Abbott has been watching closely. In May, Abbott said that if it went over 10%, it would be considered a red flag; the state has exceeded that mark every day since June 22. I don't think it's necessarily nefarious or anything, although I'm sure the conspiracy theorists are flipping out, or at least they should be, but I think that they should have been forthcoming with the fact that they had a massive backlog.
August 15, 20205 yr Is that when aggy is rolling out their vaccine that the feds gave them $265 million for? Pretty lucrative work for a bunch of folks who are expert in transmission of diseases between animals and humans.Point of order.Aggy expertise is in human to animal transmission. Not animal to human as in chinese flu pandemic.Sheep lives matter!!
August 15, 20205 yr Guess we're sending our toddlers back to daycare next week. My will is up to date, anything else I should do?
August 15, 20205 yr 37 minutes ago, B00M said: Guess we're sending our toddlers back to daycare next week. My will is up to date, anything else I should do? Figure out what you're gonna do in 2-3 weeks when there's an outbreak at that daycare?
August 15, 20205 yr Travis county hospitalizations as of 8/15: 236, lowest since 6/23. https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984
August 15, 20205 yr 7 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said: Travis county hospitalizations as of 8/15: 236, lowest since 6/23. https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984 Wuhan Flu Updates ARE BACK! I’ll. Be. Damned.
August 15, 20205 yr 11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said: They also say schools should follow a phased-in reopening strategy and should stay at each stage for a minimum of two weeks before moving up to the next level. Will the phase in move from one level to the next after meeting clearly defined metrics? Or will this be like reopening where the only criteria is waiting two weeks no matter how much the situation is falling off the rails at the end of the two weeks?
August 15, 20205 yr COA still has to defer to TEA. Schools are in hard place as if a child doesn’t have WiFi or a safe space to learn they have to let then come to class. Just a cluster fuck
August 15, 20205 yr 3 hours ago, BrazilHorn said: COA still has to defer to TEA. Schools are in hard place as if a child doesn’t have WiFi or a safe space to learn they have to let then come to class. Just a cluster fuck TEA has to defer to Abbott, who has been making it clear that schools will have a lot more of a choice about when to start back up, after the backlash he received. He also just extended the state of emergency declaration or whatever. And he and the TEA don't want to end up in court over this.
August 15, 20205 yr Since I don't believe we'll ever have an effective vaccine, I think this cycle will repeat until the virus burns itself out/we reach herd immunity.Define “effective vaccine” and why don’t you think we will have one for this virus?
August 16, 20205 yr 7 hours ago, scottsins said: Define “effective vaccine” and why don’t you think we will have one for this virus? Not UTee but I’ll give some of the points. Other coronaviruses haven’t led themselves well to vaccines in the past, so it’s possible all of the ones in development flop. Due to the endemic and highly contagious nature of the virus, it’s possible vaccine rates would have to be almost 100% worldwide in less than a years timeframe. This is due to the likelihood of the protective window being 12-18 months. Could be that the virus does what viruses do and mutates. Usually to a more contagious and less lethal form. And then the vaccines don’t work.
August 16, 20205 yr On 8/14/2020 at 10:19 PM, Message Board User said: Blog post on the general fuckery that's going on with the Texas positivity rate (which remains relatively high despite hospitalizations falling). This is what I was referring to upthread. I would heavily discount the positivity rate coming from the state dashboard. They are not clearly not picking up all tests, and the positivity rates fluctuates wildly due to an inaccurate denominator.
August 16, 20205 yr On 8/14/2020 at 4:40 PM, BehoId, The Underminer! said: Is there any theories on why it drops? Just behavioral? There is no indication that we will be doing anything other than a roller coaster of up and down indefinitely imo because we can’t keep R < 1 long enough to wipe it out. No one really knows for sure. It's definitely partly behavioral. But it could also partly be that far less than 60-80% of the population needs to be infected for herd immunity to be achieved. How else can one explain Sweden? No hard lockdown, almost no masks. Crowds everywhere now, and they have almost no cases, after the virus swept through the country earlier in the year.
August 16, 20205 yr So let’s say there is no good vaccine solution by say March 2021. What then. At some point behind the scenes do we start prepping for full blown reopening and letting it roll (ie creating massive increase in ability to deal with sick and very sick while at the same time prepping the country for the idea that a terrible death toll will be part of the equation). I say all that under the thought that we have zero ability to maintain current state past that time frame (economically, psychologically, emotionally, personal responsibility etc etc etc). We can barely do it as a society now.
August 16, 20205 yr 1 minute ago, Surly Bevo said: So let’s say there is no good vaccine solution by say March 2021. What then. At some point behind the scenes do we start prepping for full blown reopening and letting it roll (ie creating massive increase in ability to deal with sick and very sick while at the same time prepping the country for the idea that a terrible death toll will be part of the equation). I say all that under the thought that we have zero ability to maintain current state past that time frame (economically, psychologically, emotionally, personal responsibility etc etc etc). We can barely do it as a society now. We will have a vaccine by 1Q2021. If not, we get on the sweden program.
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