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Featured Replies

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:
Let's see if Harris can actually get some volume tonight and actually pass 2016 today. 

Actually.

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  • The activity on my group chats is stunning. Every brotha and sista I know is voting. Every one. '08 black turnout will be shattered, mark my words. Oak Cliff: Cedar Hill:  

  • Aqua Buddha
    Aqua Buddha

    Abbott isn't kicking himself, I'll tell you that.

  • Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

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1 minute ago, South Austin said:

Actually.

Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

Good luck dude. 

9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

That’s actually great news actually.

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

That’s actually great news actually.

Is it though?/father of twin boys 

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

Congratulations!

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

Siri, set alarm for 18 years...

5 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

Low hanging fruit if Biden is elected, in this order:

1. Covid stimulus

2. HR-1 / new voting rights act

3. Universal background checks + red flag law

Just those three and a bunch of executive orders to shore up the existing ACA, take the kids out of cages, effectively staff all agencies and departments, and reimpose Obama-level oversight and regulations and the Dems will expand their share of the House and Senate in 2022.

Having said that, watch them all fuck around for 18 months with a new health care bill, or the Green New Deal, and I say that as someone who wants those things.

 

 

How about a cyber attack on Russia on 1/22/21, the likes of which Putin has never seen?

2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

Congrats my man. Your life is about to change irreparably for the good. Consider yourself lucky. 

 

Thanks everyone. Sleeping is difficult. In lieu of sleep, I present a gift:

 

Harris was at 50,000 at 6. So it got the additional ~17,000 votes needed over 4 hours. That's a pretty robust 4,000+ votes an hour during late voting. 

Let's see if it can surpass 70k before midnight. 

3 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

It’s 35-3, don’t stop now. 

image.png.962717ac0c92e633f347ec87fc9f335d.png

5 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:
It’s 35-3, don’t stop now. 

Wow. Savage.

Not sure if I'm staying up for the Harris County midnight number but will obviously update late tonight or in the morning.

Nightly preview/estimate (And yes, I know Harris County has already passed that number below):

image.png.88d5652f406137bf920b3b45d2d70bc0.png

image.thumb.png.c8014bdd3ce73da5867607dd40cb739d.png

10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

tenor.gif?itemid=5067587

 

Well, if you want a different result...GET OUT THERE PEOPLE!!!

6 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

With 71% turnout it would be 387k or greater. A 400k advantage for Biden in Harris would not surprise me. 

8 hours ago, RayDog said:

With 71% turnout it would be 387k or greater. A 400k advantage for Biden in Harris would not surprise me. 

Yep, which essentially is +250k in Harris County alone compared to 2016. 

Still think the red counties that went 80/20 Trump in 2016 will be the tipping point. If those splits stay the same, Trump probably holds on. If it gets down to 70/30 or 65/35, that's how Biden wins. 

 

It's going to be difficult for the El Paso residents to get out and vote, but I do hope that some can mask up and give it a try today or Tuesday. They have been hurt in so many ways under Trump.

12 million? That seems like a lot for two days plus anything else mailed isn't it? The difference I mean.

Edited by Mrs Whiggins

16 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

G Elliot getting a little funky. 
 

 

 

A couple weeks ago when that Longhorn dude on twitter predicted 12m and people here thought he was nuts.  Seems like there might be a legit shot now.

10 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

 

FYI Cruz beat O'Rourke by about ~215k statewide, so a 125k difference from Harris alone makes this race interesting.

I think Trump holds on and wins Texas but just barely. El Paso being on lockdown will be the difference as well as rural and West Texas coming out in force. Democrats should do very well down ballot, however (other than MJ). 

Edit - and here's a great tool from Politico if you want to look at county by county election results from 2018: https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/texas/

 

Edited by The Dog

14 minutes ago, The Dog said:

FYI Cruz beat O'Rourke by about ~215k statewide, so a 125k difference from Harris alone makes this race interesting.

I think Trump holds on and wins Texas but just barely. El Paso being on lockdown will be the difference as well as rural and West Texas coming out in force. Democrats should do very well down ballot, however (other than MJ). 

Edit - and here's a great tool from Politico if you want to look at county by county election results from 2018: https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/texas/

 

In fairness--ELP never turns out for anything.  El Paso will still pass its total vote from 2016 (214,000) at some point today.

2 minutes ago, immamac said:

Texas gets called for biden at noon, I'm revising my prediction.

I’ll have what he’s having 

10 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Holy shit.  Trump beat Hillary by 700K in 2016 (excluding third parties).  350K out of Houston is half the margin right there.

its happening.gif

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Holy shit.  Trump beat Hillary by 700K in 2016 (excluding third parties).  350K out of Houston is half the margin right there.

its happening.gif

I don't understand where these people claiming republicans are magically voting more is coming from. There aren't new republican voters to be had, thats why low turnout favors the GOP. High turnout is not coming from the "silent republicans" there is no such thing. You do know what there is such a thing of this election? Republicans who won't vote and republicans who will be voting for Joe Biden because they are tired of cheetoh.

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Recall that Harris, despite its size, added less to Beto's ledger than Travis or Dallas.  Oil is a much harder cap there.

Harris has one of the largest Asian populations in Texas, especially Indian Americans. 

1 minute ago, immamac said:

I don't understand where these people claiming republicans are magically voting more is coming from. There aren't new republican voters to be had, thats why low turnout favors the GOP. High turnout is not coming from the "silent republicans" there is no such thing. You do know what there is such a thing of this election? Republicans who won't vote and republicans who will be voting for Joe Biden because they are tired of cheetoh.

Exactly.  Republicans have a hard cap on votes in Texas despite the state's growth and it's somewhere around 4.5M.  New voters aren't voting Republicans.  

4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Exactly.  Republicans have a hard cap on votes in Texas despite the state's growth and it's somewhere around 4.5M.  New voters aren't voting Republicans.  

Ok so at 12 million votes predicted, Biden should win by 3 million 7.5 to 4.5. What’s all the hand wringing?

22 minutes ago, immamac said:

Texas gets called for biden at noon, I'm revising my prediction.

Noon today?

Nah, I'm sure there are 100K+ Hillary voters from 2016 that have now wrapped their vehicles in MAGA flags and stickers. Makes sense to me.

Well, we officially eclipsed the total votes cast in all of 2016.  i guess that early-week lull didn't last long, well done Texas!  

That said, Tuesday is gonna be a blitz.  And I promise Trump will receive 5,000,000 votes or die tryin'.  This thing ain't close to over.  

What's the over/under on Tuesday turnout in Texas?  In terms of raw votes, not for any particular candidate?  

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/30/texas-votes-cast/?utm_source=Texas+Tribune+Newsletters&utm_campaign=208f3fe601-trib-newsletters-breaking-alert&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d9a68d8efc-208f3fe601-101204549&mc_cid=208f3fe601&mc_eid=e270f9fe31

I think Texas turns out to the tune of 60% on the nose.  

Edited by Lobo

17 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Holy shit.  Trump beat Hillary by 700K in 2016 (excluding third parties).  350K out of Houston is half the margin right there.

its happening.gif

Going to depend on how much he can close the gap in the suburb and border counties to Austin, Dallas, Houston, and SA. West Texas and the panhandle will stay red. Biden is also under-performing with Hispanics, but even then if the trip to the RGV gets out more then it matters less as Biden gets at worst a 2 for 1 from that group. Based on what the gurus say it appears that Collin, Denton, and Tarrant could swing to Biden and then it's only a question of by how much. Williamson and Hays already swung blue and have had enormous turnout so the only question there is the margins. 

So it can happen for Biden, but it's going to be very close. 

22 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Going to depend on how much he can close the gap in the suburb and border counties to Austin, Dallas, Houston, and SA. West Texas and the panhandle will stay red. Biden is also under-performing with Hispanics, but even then if the trip to the RGV gets out more then it matters less as Biden gets at worst a 2 for 1 from that group. Based on what the gurus say it appears that Collin, Denton, and Tarrant could swing to Biden and then it's only a question of by how much. Williamson and Hays already swung blue and have had enormous turnout so the only question there is the margins. 

So it can happen for Biden, but it's going to be very close. 

i'm skeptical on collin and denton.  if those do go biden's way though it would be huge.

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i'm skeptical on collin and denton.  if those do go biden's way though it would be huge.

If Collin and Denton go to Biden, it's over.

Neither will.  It's all a game of holding down the margins as much as possible.

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i'm skeptical on collin and denton.  if those do go biden's way though it would be huge.

I share your skepticism specifically on Collin. The GOP had a ground group there and I believe they left this week to go help in other states. That doesn't sound like going Biden's way to me.

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