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11 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Yes, it will not take much of a shift to get Biden over the hump. I'm pretty confident that no Beto voter is voting Trump. And I'm also confident that a significant number of Cruz voters will either cross over or not vote Trump. And that is before we even consider new voters. 

4 hours ago, Your Mom said:

This thread reminds me of the preseason football threads about the Horns' chances every upcoming year.  I want to believe... but no.  There's way more quiet Trump votes out there both early and on election day.  They aren't talking or posting about it but the votes for him are there regardless.  

Hillary is not on the ballot this year.  There were a fuck-ton of people who had an intense hatred for her, and that helped Trump out - lest we forget, Trump's base was not large enough to keep Barrack Hussein Obama out of the White House for 8 years, even though a war hero was running in 2008.

And Trump's base was most definitely around in 2008 and 2012, given their age, and many of them were voting, also given their age.

And Texas had plenty of Hillary and Bill haters.

Does boring old white guy beat Trump in 2020 here in Texas?  I don't know, but I do know I have relatives/friends who voted Trump in 2016, who are publicly proclaiming they are voting Biden this year, even though they run the risk of being chewed out/unfriended on FB from other relatives/friends about it.

Edited by atomheartbevo

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Posted Images

Nightly estimate/preview:

image.png.1759acf6787b09cc70d99c97e9941d2d.png

image.thumb.png.fb9e7627be1307df8d7bfbc48c04488e.png

Edited by Huckleberry

The biggest 11 counties are at about 44.5% based on those estimates and within reach of 46.0% in 24 hours. Then conservatively the could add 2% a day M-W and 3% Th & Fr to reach 58% in early voting or perhaps match 2016s percentage for the full election. 

From there it seems likely they will top 70% on election day. 75% might be in reach.

52 minutes ago, RayDog said:

The biggest 11 counties are at about 44.5% based on those estimates and within reach of 46.0% in 24 hours. Then conservatively the could add 2% a day M-W and 3% Th & Fr to reach 58% in early voting or perhaps match 2016s percentage for the full election. 

From there it seems likely they will top 70% on election day. 75% might be in reach.

I was at the 57 mark for EV a couple of days ago, but I’m thinking there will be lower than expected election day turnout as the higher EV turnout is more of a shift to early voting than a true increase of high magnitude. I’m thinking 65% max. Would be cool if you were right, other than the idea that day of turnout will trend trump.  

7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I was at the 57 mark for EV a couple of days ago, but I’m thinking there will be lower than expected election day turnout as the higher EV turnout is more of a shift to early voting than a true increase of high magnitude. I’m thinking 65% max. Would be cool if you were right, other than the idea that day of turnout will trend trump.  

In the past Republicans have been capped at 4.7 million votes. So even if half of them waited and no Democrats did it would still be 2.35 million or about 14% of 16.9 million. I think the actually lower limit for election day turnout is closer to 20%.

11 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Ok, here are the top 20 zips in Harris county based on turnout of registered voters (through Friday):

Zip Code # of Votes # of Registered Voters Turnout
77581 1,990 3,334 59.69%
77365 423 745 56.78%
77401 7,451 13,165 56.60%
77094 3,885 7,010 55.42%
77059 7,887 14,511 54.35%
77008 15,093 27,857 54.18%
77489 468 877 53.36%
77024 14,373 27,339 52.57%
77345 11,118 21,372 52.02%
77018 9,966 19,203 51.90%
77005 10,986 21,216 51.78%
77079 11,508 22,464 51.23%
77030 4,047 7,906 51.19%
77019 9,353 18,429 50.75%
77027 6,494 12,896 50.36%
77098 5,808 11,725 49.54%
77433 30,186 61,012 49.48%
77062 8,871 17,956 49.40%
77056 7,576 15,377 49.27%
77346 22,163 45,023 49.23%

 

And the full map:

image.thumb.png.05620b0dd3311798f878c7440cc88963.png

 

 

Good and bad examples on both sides but the lowest % voting precincts would seem to be democrat leaning along the N 45 corridor.

I actually believe that a poll like this would energize the gop more than Dems in Texas. In the same poll, cornyn is up by 8. That is a very large crossover especially with likely voters 9 days out.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie

On 10/24/2020 at 9:17 AM, Dahobbs said:

I mean, it would be the highest turnout since 1992 by a significant margin. We literally haven't broken 60% registered voters turnout since then. And, in 1992 only 65% of eligible voters were registered versus 78% this year.   67% registered voter turnout would be damn good for us. 

Too use Trump logic we have too many registered voters because we register too much for mildly interested voters that just go away.  Stop voter registration and we would have better voter turnout numbers.

 

 

On 10/24/2020 at 9:17 AM, Dahobbs said:

I mean, it would be the highest turnout since 1992 by a significant margin. We literally haven't broken 60% registered voters turnout since then. And, in 1992 only 65% of eligible voters were registered versus 78% this year.   67% registered voter turnout would be damn good for us. 

Too use Trump logic we have too many registered voters because we register too much for mildly interested voters that just go away.  Stop voter registration and we would have better voter turnout numbers.

 

 

My nephew voted yesterday, so add one more to the 18-29 demographic for Biden. 

Final Saturday update

image.png.39180651593cb7e59e877cb0b614825f.png

image.thumb.png.1e22419fd53a3b277f0ccd57272a53cc.png

2020 current Statewide estimate based on 2018 Dem/Rep county vote shares

Trump - 3,673,874 (51.1%)
Biden - 3,519,509 (48.9%)

 

To try to get a small sense of relative turnout, here is a report on the percent of total 2018 early votes that each of the 15 most populous Texas counties has reached through yesterday:

Harris: 97.34%
Dallas: 98.88%
Tarrant: 89.59%
Bexar: 92.46%
Travis: 92.74%
Collin: 95.04%
Denton: 100.80%
El Paso: 89.48%
Fort Bend: 94.19%
Hidalgo: 85.46%
Williamson: 97.34%
Montgomery: 92.50%
Galveston: 97.86%
Brazoria: 81.45%
Cameron: 100.39%
 

Total for the 15 counties together is 95.1%, so any counties above that number are above the 15 county average. And vice versa, of course. Brazoria is from county data and not Statewide data so it may be off, that's why it's in italics. Drawn from a different data source. Brazoria was excluded from the overall average calculation for that reason. These numbers include mail-in votes.

Edited by Huckleberry

So can I take that to mean that through 2 weeks of early voting, we are about at the same pace as last election early voting which lasted 2 weeks?

that still makes me wonder if the extended EV will just rob votes from Election Day, rather than helping to add votes. Can’t know that until next Wednesday though. 

Final Saturday update
image.png.39180651593cb7e59e877cb0b614825f.png
image.thumb.png.1e22419fd53a3b277f0ccd57272a53cc.png
2020 current Statewide estimate based on 2018 Dem/Rep county vote shares
Trump - 3,673,874 (51.1%)
Biden - 3,519,509 (48.9%)
 
Just to get some clarity/confirmation, these totals are assuming there is no change in voting patterns of a county's electorate from 2018. If a county voted 55.5% Cruz, the assumption here is 55.5% Trump?
1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

 

Did not expect it to be Hays County.   That is very interesting.  

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Did not expect it to be Hays County.   That is very interesting.  

It is driven by an increase in the number of registered voters. Hays has increased 26% since 2016. 

10 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

It is driven by an increase in the number of registered voters. Hays has increased 26% since 2016. 

It's San Marcos, and I'm going to guess that it wasn't a matter of getting a bunch of olds, who skipped 2016,  off their asses and out to vote for Trump, but was instead college students (or students registered elsewhere but considered HC to be their home) who registered.

Edited by atomheartbevo

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's San Marcos, and I'm going to guess that it wasn't a matter of getting a bunch of olds, who skipped 2016,  off their asses and out to vote for Trump, but was instead college students (or students registered elsewhere but considered HC to be their home) who registered.

Well, the population also increased by 17%, so it was a combination of more people + an additional uptick in registrations. Your theory sounds fine to me. 

Did a 2-mile walk in my San Marcos neighborhood tonight.

Literally saw 2 Trump yard signs. Probably 20+ Biden signs.

34 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Well, the population also increased by 17%, so it was a combination of more people + an additional uptick in registrations. Your theory sounds fine to me. 

How did they increase by 17%?  Texas State can't exactly lower their standards any more, otherwise they'd turn into aggy.

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

How did they increase by 17%?  Texas State can't exactly lower their standards any more, otherwise they'd turn into aggy.

Cheap housing - the draw of Hays County.

latest from Travis County - early voting totals after 13 days

total votes : 427,071

% of registered voters who have voted : 50%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct25.pdf

This weekend had some of the lightest days of the early voting period. We'll see if it picks up again this week

5 more days of early voting to go.

 

 

19 minutes ago, yoladu said:

latest from Travis County - early voting totals after 13 days

total votes : 427,071

% of registered voters who have voted : 50%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct25.pdf

This weekend had some of the lightest days of the early voting period. We'll see if it picks up again this week

5 more days of early voting to go.

 

 

Hoping for 7-10 more % including a last day spike, statewide. Just 1% mon-thurs and then 3% Friday accomplishes that lower end. 

El Paso going into covid curfew. Wonder how/if that affects their turnout this week

I noticed that as of Sunday morning the biggest 11 counties had a 44.1% turnout while the remaining counties had a 40.1% turnout for a 10% advantage among the biggest, primarily Democratic counties. In 2016 those 11 counties had a 2.7% advantage at the end. Of course, Republicans will think they will make it up on election day and perhaps they will.

So if Travis is already at 50%, what’s the expected final %? What’s the record?

5 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

So if Travis is already at 50%, what’s the expected final %? What’s the record?

The record is 78.25 in 1992. Travis could hit 75% the way things are going, which would be nice.

On 10/23/2020 at 11:27 PM, SimonBolivar said:

I worked with a Mexican girl from Guadalajara who was a super smart engineer and well liked at Disney. Well one day she is off by herself crying because of the things the Argentinean tour group of 15 year olds were saying about Mexicans.

 Of course saying that you should see what my Mexican inlaws say about Guatemalans, Hondurans, and Salvadorans. 

Were they talking about the damn offside goal they got or the dagger in the heart golden goal.

Trump got 800,000 more votes than Clinton in 2016, who received 43.24% of the Texas vote.

If Democrats are 8 points higher, that means they’re getting 51.24% of this new vote. Assuming Trump is getting the other 48.76%, this is only a 46,000 vote lead in the new voters.

8 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

El Paso going into covid curfew. Wonder how/if that affects their turnout this week

Isn’t it daily from 10pm -5am?  Shouldn’t do too much harm.

18 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Trump got 800,000 more votes than Clinton in 2016, who received 43.24% of the Texas vote.

If Democrats are 8 points higher, that means they’re getting 51.24% of this new vote. Assuming Trump is getting the other 48.76%, this is only a 46,000 vote lead in the new voters.

yeah.  8 points isn't going to get it done.

I don’t know who Tom Boner is, but 1) I like his name and 2) I like this tweet:

 

20 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Trump got 800,000 more votes than Clinton in 2016, who received 43.24% of the Texas vote.

If Democrats are 8 points higher, that means they’re getting 51.24% of this new vote. Assuming Trump is getting the other 48.76%, this is only a 46,000 vote lead in the new voters.

And that kind of is my response to people who think the GOP has tapped out their vote or they are necessarily dead at XX percent turnout. There’s a lot of Dems that don’t vote bc why bother- losing cause. There’s a lot of GOP that don’t vote bc why bother- pointless. Dems will likely net more votes from increased turnout than GOP but how many more?  8% seems small as a margin. That means Dems are going to have to do some persuasion not just turn out. Looks like Trump is doing their persuasion for them. 

Trump got 800,000 more votes than Clinton in 2016, who received 43.24% of the Texas vote.

If Democrats are 8 points higher, that means they’re getting 51.24% of this new vote. Assuming Trump is getting the other 48.76%, this is only a 46,000 vote lead in the new voters.

Biden is running well ahead of Clinton in existing voters though. It won't be 800k more this time. I still think Trump wins but it's going to be close.

 

2018 Cruz/O'Rourke:

Denton - 158,744/134,649 (53.7/45.5)
Hays - 33,308/45,584 (41.8/57.1)
Williamson - 99,857/105,850 (48.0/50.8)

10 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Biden is running well ahead of Clinton in existing voters though. It won't be 800k more this time. I still think Trump wins but it's going to be close.

 

I recognize the difference between a presidential election and an interim but wouldn’t it be instructive to look at the Beto/Cruz race in 18 as a starting point.  That race clearly demonstrated a change after 2 years of Trump.  

20 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Biden is running well ahead of Clinton in existing voters though. It won't be 800k more this time. I still think Trump wins but it's going to be close.

 

Yeah- the question for me and key for Dems is about how many voters they flip. Because every vote they flip is a +2, whereas every new vote is like a plus 0.1 if those numbers are to be believed. They aren’t turning out 8,000,000 new voters. They need to persuade some. 
If the numbers are right that Cronyn is running 10 points ahead of Trump then Donnie is doing their work for them. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn

2 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

I recognize the difference between a presidential election and an interim but wouldn’t it be instructive to look at the Beto/Cruz race in 18 as a starting point.  That race clearly demonstrated a change after 2 years of Trump.  

I don’t think so. Midterms are about mood. Dems were mad. I’d always counsel against comparing a presidential to a midterm. 
My sense in 18 was Beto got more of his voters to the polls than the other side did bc he was really well liked by his base. 

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- the question for me and key for Dems is about how many voters they flip. Because every vote they flip is a +2, whereas every new vote is like a plus 0.1 of those numbers are to be believed. They aren’t turning out 8,000,000 new voters. They need to persuade some before. 
mid the numbers are right that Cronyn is running 10 points ahead of Trump than Donnie is doing their work for them. 

The Cornyn/Trump difference isn't just Trump, it's also Hegar running a terrible Senate campaign.

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