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Featured Replies

14 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Can’t shake the thought that Collin and Denton leading the way is a bad omen. 

I can't pretend to know much about demographics of either county, but the optimist in me thinks "hey, Texas is finally in play and my vote matters" makes more sense than "I've loved Trump as POTUS and can't wait to vote for him."

Higher turnout HAS to be good for Dems, right? 

 

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  • The activity on my group chats is stunning. Every brotha and sista I know is voting. Every one. '08 black turnout will be shattered, mark my words. Oak Cliff: Cedar Hill:  

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    Abbott isn't kicking himself, I'll tell you that.

  • Sorry getting ready for birth of two baby girls tomorrow morning. I'm actually quite distracted. 

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5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I can't pretend to know much about demographics of either county, but the optimist in me thinks "hey, Texas is finally in play and my vote matters" makes more sense than "I've loved Trump as POTUS and can't wait to vote for him."

Higher turnout HAS to be good for Dems, right? 

 

That has been my default assumption up until now, but the whole mentality of voting-as-partying that has taken hold has me thinking otherwise.  That’s where the boat parades, trucks with flags, and what not seems to be a benefit to R in my gut. 

Edited by BehoId, The Underminer!

2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

That has been my default assumption up until now, but the whole mentality of voting-as-partying that has taken hold has me thinking otherwise.  That’s where the boat parades, trucks with flags, and what not seems to be a benefit to R in my gut. 

That's fair. I think a lot of that peacocking for Trump will be overrated when it comes to actual votes. We'll find out soon enough. 

 

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

That's fair. I think a lot of that peacocking for Trump will be overrated when it comes to actual votes. We'll find out soon enough. 

 

I think the lack of competitive races at the top of the ballot has suppressed the vote on both sides, and that’s why turnout in Texas is always so low. Hoping the voter enthusiasm number relates favorably to the new votes. 

It's gonna be awesome when they call Texas for Biden early and this thing turns into Tyson/Spinks. 

If the turnout is 12 million...Biden might actually stand a chance.

delete

Edited by elfenix

3 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Its gonna be close!

Those that think Trump will win Texas easily are looney tunes.

Trump will win easily. 

1 minute ago, Caddox said:

Trump will win easily. 

He will win the small counties easily. It isn't going to be enough for him. A small shift leftward from 2018 (couple points) in the top 15 counties would lead to a Biden win. I don't think the shift will be all that small. 

If Trump doesnt win by 5% I'll never post on this forum again. Will yall agree to the same?

36 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

That has been my default assumption up until now, but the whole mentality of voting-as-partying that has taken hold has me thinking otherwise.  That’s where the boat parades, trucks with flags, and what not seems to be a benefit to R in my gut. 

God I hope that cringey shit doesn't prove to work. I don't want to paint shit with damn politicians faces and walk around like some jackass.

Next we will all have to wear overalls and paint 'Saw em Off' on our ass.

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2 minutes ago, Caddox said:

If Trump doesnt win by 5% I'll never post on this forum again. Will yall agree to the same?

How the fuck would I even know if you kept your pledge or not, dude I have never seen before and would never remember?

On 10/20/2020 at 9:03 PM, Helobious said:

Lol. Early voting will slow to a crawl the next 2 weeks. I think more people will vote here this election, but it’ll be by 100 or 200,000 or so. 1 million is laughable, 3 million is just clickbait dumbassery. Trump won Texas +9 in 2016, I say he wins it +5 this go around. 
 

Ive looked at almost no stats or trends, and I’ve just given a far more accurate and reasonable prediction of what will happen than any of these Twitter statisticians. Use some common sense once in a while.

 

The laughable 1 million is guaranteed at this point. Click bait dumbassery happens if Texas has a typical election day. 

Maybe Biden wins by +5. - James Brown.

1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

How the fuck would I even know if you kept your pledge or not, dude I have never seen before and would never remember?

Come up with something else. Its an easy bet for me. 

8 minutes ago, Caddox said:

If Trump doesnt win by 5% I'll never post on this forum again. Will yall agree to the same?

Sorry, who are you? I don’t think anyone would notice. 

8 minutes ago, Caddox said:

If Trump doesnt win by 5% I'll never post on this forum again. Will yall agree to the same?

You have less than 500 total posts. What would be the difference? 

9 minutes ago, Caddox said:

If Trump doesnt win by 5% I'll never post on this forum again. Will yall agree to the same?

How about we bet actual real American Dollars on the over/under of 5%.  I'll take the under.  Name your bet.

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

You have less than 500 total posts. What would be the difference? 

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You fools talking 5% or 5 percentage points. 

Just now, Helobious said:

You fools talking 5% or 5 percentage points. 

I assumed he's talking percentage points.  Trump won by 9 in '16 so this should be easy money for him.

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

How about we bet actual real American Dollars on the over/under of 5%.  I'll take the under.  Name your bet.

I dont want to have to give out my info. I'm interested in the bet though. 

3 minutes ago, Helobious said:

You fools talking 5% or 5 percentage points. 

% points. 

17 minutes ago, Caddox said:

If Trump doesnt win by 5% I'll never post on this forum again. Will yall agree to the same?

image.gif.5fc3fb5cc7d11de6d5a00e71e9fb552e.gif

I think the election day voting will be lower than usual because of early voting being so convenient and people being really motivated to vote. I don't know how to do math but what percentage of voting has to happen on election day for Biden to win if he has the bigger split of the early vote? 

Calculate Figure It Out GIF by Originals

On 10/20/2020 at 8:15 PM, Irwin F Fletcher said:
On 10/20/2020 at 7:21 PM, Longhorn_Fan68 said:
I'm no math genius, but a 133% increase over last cycle is a METRIC FUCKTON of new voters. I can't imagine anywhere near half of them are voting for dotard

If we add 3M voters this cycle and push Biden to a win I'm buying beer at Great Heights for any Surly poster who is parched from the last four years.

I still can't believe it possible, but if we are exceeding the 2016 total by 3M votes, I'm buying some beer to celebrate.

10 minutes ago, Caddox said:

I dont want to have to give out my info. I'm interested in the bet though. 

We can escrow with a Surly mod.   Website keeps 10%.   Each put up $110 to win $100?  Who runs the Surly paypal account?

I dont want to have to give out my info. I'm interested in the bet though. 

How far ahead is Trump in Collin County?

Neighbors cleaning out garage today while I was cleaning garden; they asked me if I early voted. "Yes, did y'all?"

"Yes, we never early voted before, it's great!" They're ridin' with Biden. I almost fell over. They are Ag and they voted for Biden.

Tried to keep it cool, but did talk about how great the turn out is and hope it continues for the future....

This is a not bad sign. May not be enough, but it was a nice surprise.

16 minutes ago, South Austin said:

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I 100% thought the same time and googled, but got caught up watching Spade’s receptionist block MC Hammer and an alien with an urgent message about the end of the world from seeing Dick Clark.

I am a pessimist by nature so I will be skeptical until everything is finalized.  But by far the most concrete piece of evidence we have to go on is early voter turnout.  Trump won in 2016 by a combo of him maximizing the turnout of his base and his opponent being overconfident and not maximizing the turnout that favored her.  Any increased turnout will heavily favor Biden.  It is really hard to see that and not expect a Biden landslide.

5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I am a pessimist by nature so I will be skeptical until everything is finalized.  But by far the most concrete piece of evidence we have to go on is early voter turnout.  Trump won in 2016 by a combo of him maximizing the turnout of his base and his opponent being overconfident and not maximizing the turnout that favored her.  Any increased turnout will heavily favor Biden.  It is really hard to see that and not expect a Biden landslide.

The Comey surprise didn’t hurt Trump at all. In fact, I think it was determinative in his winning.

There are halal markets and temples all over Plano and Frisco. I know McKinney and some of the northern parts are different but overall Collin County has changed dramatically over the last decade plus.

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Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 4,909,491 (50.6%)
Biden - 4,724,191 (48.7%)
Third Party - 76,232 (0.8%)

9,709,915 early votes according to current data on the Texas SOS website. Some more will come trickling in from late-reporting counties.

 

Edited by Huckleberry

4 minutes ago, Satchel said:

The Comey surprise didn’t hurt Trump at all. In fact, I think it was determinative in his winning.

That had a hand in it for sure, but I think just as important was all the premature celebrating that I remember for the week or two prior to the election. I think that gave many people a sense that they could not vote (for a candidate they didn’t really like) and she’d still win. 
 

lesson learned, for a few elections at least. Well, one for sure. 

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

This can be arranged for any and all takers. 

Caddox is going to be overlevered before he can say HELOC if he covers everyone who will want in on that. 

14 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Statewide estimate based on 2018 county vote shares:

Trump - 4,909,491 (50.6%)
Biden - 4,724,191 (48.7%)
Third Party - 76,232 (0.8%)

9,709,915 early votes according to current data on the Texas SOS website. Some more will come trickling in from late-reporting counties.

 

nearly 1.1 registered voters between el paso, hidalgo, and cameron, and they're trailing everyone else by about 150,000 votes.  feels like that could be trump's margin. 

 

 

(and LOL at the guy that doesn't post here trying to make a bet about not posting here)

Edited by elfenix

You could never enforce the person to not just sign up under a different account. And $100 isn’t much for some people 

Bet something that will be lasting and funny. 
 

Choose their avatar picture for 4 years. 

Meh, I wouldn’t take the bet. Trump winning TX by 5 isn’t unreasonable. It’s almost 5 points lower than 2016.

But I wouldn’t make the offer of a bet if I were betting Trump +5 either.

So, let's assume for a second the polling was right and Biden supporters were more likely to vote early. I think the polling I saw said 70% early for those planning to vote Biden and 70% election day for those planning to vote Trump. But, let's say the real number is 60% for both. That would mean that right now Trump would have to net 2 million votes on election day to win. Given that election day has seemed to be capped at 2 to 2.5 million votes, that would require an overwhelming election day victory for Trump. 

Just something to think about. 

As you can see from the line chart above, 2020 early voting for the first week very closely mimicked the 2016 pattern. So I put together this chart showing what the total 2020 early voting turnout would have looked like if it matched the full pattern of 2016 but was only the normal 12 day period. This gives a better look at the relative scale of early voting turnout between years. Obviously the major caveat is that we're all waiting to find out the effect on Election Day turnout.

image.png.bb7b0bc367efcb6486cb69e78f9e0ee0.png

3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

As you can see from the line chart above, 2020 early voting for the first week very closely mimicked the 2016 pattern. So I put together this chart showing what the total 2020 early voting turnout would have looked like if it matched the full pattern of 2016 but was only the normal 12 day period. This gives a better look at the relative scale of early voting turnout between years. Obviously the major caveat is that we're all waiting to find out the effect on Election Day turnout.

image.png.bb7b0bc367efcb6486cb69e78f9e0ee0.png

Did you just put the second and third week together or increase every day proportionately? 

I took the total 2020 turnout and spread it according to the 2016 daily pattern. So closer to your second option.

Rounding to 10 million EV, if those are 51/48 Biden that’s a lead of 300,000. (1% for other) 5.1 million to 4.8 million  

at 1.5 million votes on Tuesday, trump would have to win 60/40 to make up that deficit. (No other to make the math line up perfectly) 900,000 to 600,000.  
 

I guess the question is the accuracy or plausibility of those two things.

Edited by Pato del Muerto

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