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McConnell could now be considering a 50-50 split a win given sinema and manchin. The gop internal poll must be aligning to the public perception Oz is finished so PA flips. Kelly seems like he will retain AZ. For a majority now, McConnell has to count on flipping both NV and GA while holding onto NC, OH and WI. The window for a GOP 51 is getting incredibly small.

inflation is dropping. Gas prices are dropping. Biden seems to have found the bottom of his disapproval rating, stock market is “only” down 10% for the year and eating away the loss almost daily. Biden killed terrorist #1.  Unemployment back to an all time low. The gop can say it’s the bad times but not for most people.

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  • Bama Chick
    Bama Chick

    That “majority” has been remembered as something that never actually existed. Let's clear that all up, shall we? Starting January 2009, at the beginning of the 111th Congress, in the month that Bara

  • Pescado_Rojo
    Pescado_Rojo

    I'd pay good money to watch Big John Fetterman beat Steve Bannon to death with Roger Stone. 

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5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

McConnell could now be considering a 50-50 split a win given sinema and manchin. The gop internal poll must be aligning to the public perception Oz is finished so PA flips. Kelly seems like he will retain AZ. For a majority now, McConnell has to count on flipping both NV and GA while holding onto NC, OH and WI. The window for a GOP 51 is getting incredibly small.

inflation is dropping. Gas prices are dropping. Biden seems to have found the bottom of his disapproval rating, stock market is “only” down 10% for the year and eating away the loss almost daily. Biden killed terrorist #1.  Unemployment back to an all time low. The gop can say it’s the bad times but not for most people.

 

hopefully putin's bitch goes down in wisconsin 

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

 

When 90yo Dan Rather is savaging you on Twitter you should probably just go ahead and quit - life, campaign, whatever 

My one big fear now for November is the trump wildcard with this DOJ “raid” on his house. It could pull together the right.

 

Is there any chance in hell the house doesn’t flip? Like what is more likely, Texas winning 8 games or Democrats retaining the house?

Just now, Neonmoon said:

Is there any chance in hell the house doesn’t flip? Like what is more likely, Texas winning 8 games or Democrats retaining the house?

Definitely dems keeping the house. Unless we average 56 points a game. But then again we did give up 57 to Kansas.

50 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

My one big fear now for November is the trump wildcard with this DOJ “raid” on his house. It could pull together the right.

 

 

the power players in the right want him to go away 

University of North Florida, 8/8-12

Demings 48
Rubio 44

Same poll has DeSantis up 7 or 8 in the governor race (50-43 over Nikki Fried and 50-42 over Charlie Crist). Biden 38-59 approval, so in line with most polling. 

71% oppose a Florida law to make all abortions illegal to only 27% support. 

They haven't polled this race since February, when it was Rubio 46 - Demings 34 and DeSantis was up 55-34 on Crist and 55-32 on Fried

52 won’t mean much if they lose the house.

It means two more years of judicial confirmations.

Also the Dem party has 4 at-risk senate seats (WV, AZ, MI, MT) in 2024. Walking into the '24 election with a 2-seat majority could be critical regardless who wins the presidency. Losing a winnable senate seat in '22 could have far reaching impact for the Dems.

4 is putting it very generously. Democratic incumbents are defending in MT, NV, AZ, WI, OH, MI, PA, and WV. If Biden remains as unpopular as he is, NM and MN could be in play. There is no realistic pickup on the table.

The difference between 50 and 52 this year may seem trivial, but it is enormous in putting a filibuster proof majority out of reach for the GOP in 2024.

Anyone disappointed about “ only keeping the senate” is crazy.  McConnell is obsessed with judges. He horded tons of nominations besides the very notable metrics garland snub. We need another 2 years of appointing judges. We need to be able to replace a Supreme Court justice if we get lucky and one of the GOP justices retire or croak.

keeping the senate for 2+ more years is great if we can hold on to it this fall. It’s way more important than the house.

26 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

the-simpsons-he-is-already-dead.gif

Edited by Gap03

"After a hard day at the steel factory, I like to unwind with a little grocery shopping at the Wegners. I'm just like yinz."

John Fetterman is rapidly approaching Larry Bird and John Randle-level of shit talking.

6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

"After a hard day at the steel factory, I like to unwind with a little grocery shopping at the Wegners. I'm just like yinz."

 

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

 

I bet Oz is using his TV show media team or at least following TV show tactics. His crudite tweet looks like a tv segment on how to create a healthy alternative in place of potato chips for a party. Great for the 2pm TV viewer but looks horrible for PA politics.

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I bet Oz is using his TV show media team or at least following TV show tactics. His crudite tweet looks like a tv segment on how to create a healthy alternative in place of potato chips for a party. Great for the 2pm TV viewer but looks horrible for PA politics.

Crudite might win you some points in California, but god damn, PA folk think he's such a joke.  Can't wait to see his popularity numbers nosedive further.

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

 

Oh yea?  Well wait till his "I am shopping at the Bazaar cause my wife is making Baba Ghannouj and the price of tahini is so high" ad comes out!

Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

How is 61.5% to 38.5% a toss-up?

29% chance to 38.5% chance in 7 days speaks to momentum. She's also only down 0.3% on 538 - up 1.5% for her since a month ago. 

4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

How is 61.5% to 38.5% a toss-up?

Not sure but the speaker on that video looks like she has a post organism glow and that she used the spooge on her hair which may explain her confusion

 

015049ebe5cb81ee46c360ecb69b2435_w200.gi 

6 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

How is 61.5% to 38.5% a toss-up?

They're not saying that Budd will get 61% of the vote but the analysis says he has a 60% chance of winning. With political odds that is normally considered a toss-up. It's an arbitrary definition that anyone is free to disagree with.

9 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

How is 61.5% to 38.5% a toss-up?

Would you be happy with there being a near 40% chance of losing to UTEP?

2 out of 5 chance of winning, compared to the Republican with a 3 out of 5 chance. 61.5 v 38.5 is not level of support in the graphic.

19 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

"$6?! Must be a shortage of salsa!" The way he says that just cracks me up. Kind of a tongue twister and add in the bad acting and it just comes out so funny. 

"Shortage of salsa... shortage of salsa... shortage of salsa"

2 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

"$6?! Must be a shortage of salsa!" The way he says that just cracks me up. Kind of a tongue twister and add in the bad acting and it just comes out so funny. 

"Shortage of salsa... shortage of salsa... shortage of salsa"

These pretzels...ARE MAKING ME THIRSTY! 

3 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

"$6?! Must be a shortage of salsa!" The way he says that just cracks me up. Kind of a tongue twister and add in the bad acting and it just comes out so funny. 

"Shortage of salsa... shortage of salsa... shortage of salsa"

He says that in front of a fully-stocked shelf of salsa.

20 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Oh....?

 

that poll is fucky. Here's how the Florida Democratic primary results stack up against all the others (and unlike the Senate poll there's been recent polling):

image.thumb.png.613af9ad5cda39a8b10a8d8e95ad545e.png

I mean, it COULD be correct but it appears to be a serious outlier at this point.

44 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Queue the MAGA boycott in 3... 2... 1...

But the real question here - does PA really do veggie trays with salsa and guac? That's weird AF.

Edited by gmr548

52 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

They're not saying that Budd will get 61% of the vote but the analysis says he has a 60% chance of winning. With political odds that is normally considered a toss-up. It's an arbitrary definition that anyone is free to disagree with.

I know it was chance of winning since it was written on the image. But there is no way in fuck that having a 60/40 split is a toss-up whether in an election or a ballgame. 

54 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Would you be happy with there being a near 40% chance of losing to UTEP?

No, and I still wouldn’t consider it a toss up.

34 minutes ago, The Dog said:

that poll is fucky. Here's how the Florida Democratic primary results stack up against all the others (and unlike the Senate poll there's been recent polling):

image.thumb.png.613af9ad5cda39a8b10a8d8e95ad545e.png

I mean, it COULD be correct but it appears to be a serious outlier at this point.

I give it the same credence as those that had Hegar with a chance in hell against Cornyn.

By the way, did you know she was in a helicopter crash and used to drive a Harley?

17 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

No, and I still wouldn’t consider it a toss up.

Trump had like a 20% chance of winning in 2016.

2 hours ago, chainsaw said:

"After a hard day at the steel factory, I like to unwind with a little grocery shopping at the Wegners. I'm just like yinz."

Now I want a heh-oagie.

i'd kill for a wawa

10 minutes ago, elfenix said:

i'd kill for a wawa

In November we camped out for a week in the middle of Philadelphia one block from a Wawa. Gobbler Bowls every day.

2 hours ago, Horn Dog said:

Not sure but the speaker on that video looks like she has a post organism glow and that she used the spooge on her hair which may explain her confusion

 

015049ebe5cb81ee46c360ecb69b2435_w200.gi 

Tell us more about this "post organism" glow. What is that, like post moulting? Post chrysalis? 

25 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Tell us more about this "post organism" glow. What is that, like post moulting? Post chrysalis? 

I knew it didn't look right, but I trusted autocorrect anyway.   Lesson learned.

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6 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

I knew it didn't look right, but I trusted autocorrect anyway.   Lesson learned.

autocorrect always fucks you in the drive-through

42 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

 

We need more ppl like him on dem side, he is doing surgery on a tv surgeon 

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