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6 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Saying there's a LOT of people furloughed etc that are not showing up in unemployment numbers.  Also a metric shitton of people in the gig economy out of work that have simply not applied yet.  I know of dozens of people in FL that have been trying to apply for unemployment but have not gotten through.  I'd say the 'real' unemployment rate is closer to 30%.  End of March it was 15-20%. 

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/new-data-show-true-march-jobless-rate-near-20-percent/?agreed=1

This.

Denials of unemployment Are a major issue in Texas too.

DNAgal has been denied two weeks ina row after being furloughed.

its a total crap shoot applying. Can’t contact anyone because the phones are always busy. Won’t go in because... well that defeats the point of social distancing. 

So yeah... 

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May have to rewatch "The Big Short" again... just seems like an overpriced market again with all the Fed money being Brrrrr'd out right now and nobody knows how to project expected loan losses for the Banks right now.

Also, aren't taxes going to rise in a few years to pay for all the government money being spent right now??

 

Banks right now:  "Everything's Fine With Our Commercial Real Estate Loans... We're sure of our math just ask my Quant"

         "That's a nice shirt... do they make it for men?" 

 

Edited by LTtxfan

 

 

 

pay for all the government money being spent right now??

 

Bless your heart

 

JPM falls on it's face, missing EPS predictions that had already been revised down badly, while saying they're looking at loan defaults out the ass...futures look great!

Edited by ChiTownDoc

21 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

JPM falls on it's face, missing EPS predictions that had already been revised down badly, while saying they're looking at loan defaults out the ass...futures look great!

Priced in

49 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

JPM falls on it's face, missing EPS predictions that had already been revised down badly, while saying they're looking at loan defaults out the ass...futures look great!

market is not bull.  market is not bear.

 

market =

honey-badger-pin-cushion-wf-wm.jpg

 

I was worried, then saw several clips of Cramer turning bullish over the last 24 hrs.  I feel better now. 

I order less from amazon since I don’t get my shit within a day or two anymore
Was looking last night and most Prime items had a delivery date of May 5th. Nah, I can do without.

ignoring the irrationality of the greater market, how the fuck is overstock gaining 12% and is at pre-corona level.

 

these fuckers rode the cryptocurrency tide but even that stunk out by now.  their hilarious investor presentation deck looks like it was churned out overnight; they brand themselves as "a tech company at [our] core"; and half of it is some accelerator blockchain digital capital platform mumbo jumbo.

 

i tried to sell short only a modest amount and broker says shares not available.  (hard to borrow?).  barely any volumes in options either

lulz. this market has no basis in reality and hasn't for over a decade. dgiaf. my 401k thanks the major players who treat this market as the money making pyramid scheme that it is. they short the shit out of it for gainz, they pump the shit out of it for gainz.

lulz. this market has no basis in reality and hasn't for over a decade. dgiaf. my 401k thanks the major players who treat this market as the money making pyramid scheme that it is. they short the shit out of it for gainz, they pump the shit out of it for gainz.


f23170a005530e55d3fa392977fc817c.jpg
6 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

lulz. this market has no basis in reality and hasn't for over a decade. dgiaf. my 401k thanks the major players who treat this market as the money making pyramid scheme that it is. they short the shit out of it for gainz, they pump the shit out of it for gainz.

I was considering moving some of my 401K funds into less risky investments after this decent rebound. Now I'm not so sure I want to mess with it at all.

Btw, when someone here said we would have been happy buying BYND in the 60s long term. Well fast forward a week at that's a quick 25% return!

4 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Btw, when someone here said we would have been happy buying BYND in the 60s long term. Well fast forward a week at that's a quick 25% return!

Was just about to post the same.  There are a few posters that I would like to hug right now for making me look at that trade. 

If you needed any more proof that the market gives zero shits about regular Joe American, this is it. Record unemployment, earnings in the shitter, still in the middle of a global pandemic, and we just keep pumping. The market cares not about Jim Bob in Arkansas on furlough, or Cindy from Texas who is in ICU with corona. Hell, the market doesn't even care about us surly .001%ers. It cares about the institutional guys and how many trillions the fed can pump in and that's it.

2 minutes ago, 936horn said:

If you needed any more proof that the market gives zero shits about regular Joe American, this is it. Record unemployment, earnings in the shitter, still in the middle of a global pandemic, and we just keep pumping. The market cares not about Jim Bob in Arkansas on furlough, or Cindy from Texas who is in ICU with corona. Hell, the market doesn't even care about us surly .001%ers. It cares about the institutional guys and how many trillions the fed can pump in and that's it.

Gonna be a real motherfucker when it all falls apart. 

rebalanced with some VDE just now.  literally its lowest its ever been.  probably won't be worth anything for a little while, but there is no way it doesn't see real returns outside of a few years

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Gonna be a real motherfucker when it all falls apart. 

this is the beauty. the institutional guys own the market. they do the bulk of the trading. it'll fall apart only because they can make money on the way down, like they did this time and all previous times, and then they'll pump it right back up. joe schmo's don't trade enough volume to move the needle that much. it's the institutional guys who move the needle.

Thanks Debbie Downer. 


Did you not get to the plot twist?
10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

rebalanced with some VDE just now.  literally its lowest its ever been.  probably won't be worth anything for a little while, but there is no way it doesn't see real returns outside of a few years

VDE is down but not lowest it's ever been...

Vanguard Energy Index Fund ETF Shares (VDE)

44.96.   +0.43 (+0.97%)   (As of 10:31AM EDT)

52 Week Range     30.03 - 93.17

 

 
 
2 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

VDE is down but not lowest it's ever been...

Vanguard Energy Index Fund ETF Shares (VDE)

44.96.   +0.43 (+0.97%)   (As of 10:31AM EDT)

52 Week Range     30.03 - 93.17

 

 
 

I didn't mean literally literally.  I meant literally figuratively.

29 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I was considering moving some of my 401K funds into less risky investments after this decent rebound. Now I'm not so sure I want to mess with it at all.

Btw, when someone here said we would have been happy buying BYND in the 60s long term. Well fast forward a week at that's a quick 25% return!

Yep. Made that BYND trade that day @$64. Been watching it since IPO and plant-based proteins are here to stay. And they’ve got great products with strong distribution and will be building a facility in Asia.

 

1 minute ago, Tailgate said:

Yep. Made that BYND trade that day @$64. Been watching it since IPO and plant-based proteins are here to stay. And they’ve got great products with strong distribution and will be building a facility in Asia.

 

Good for you. I really like it long term as well but didn't buy when we were talking about it last week. Instead set a few buys lower that never hit. I'll keep watching for somewhere in the 60's to pick some up.

 

14 minutes ago, Lurch said:

Did you not get to the plot twist?

 

On second reading. 

This thread can sometimes be indistinguishable from r/wallstreetbets. 

"Everything has gone to shit, the plane has crashed into the fucking mountain and yet the market isn't responding rationally! My 4/15 SPY puts are gonna be fucking worthless! Goddamn JPOW, money printer go brrr..."

I'm starting to gain a new appreciation for a literal interpretation of the story about Nero playing with his fiddle while Rome burns.

Edited by bernorange

12 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

This thread can sometimes be indistinguishable from r/wallstreetbets. 

"Everything has gone to shit, the plane has crashed into the fucking mountain and yet the market isn't responding rationally! My 4/15 SPY puts are gonna be fucking worthless! Goddamn JPOW, money printer go brrr..."

according to my technical analysis, we have formed a classic Longhorn pattern recovery

 

longhorn.png

 

 

UAL up 5 percent because why not. I mean 4 percent of the people are flying compared to last year today.

1 hour ago, crash_davis said:

lulz. this market has no basis in reality and hasn't for over a decade. dgiaf. my 401k thanks the major players who treat this market as the money making pyramid scheme that it is. they short the shit out of it for gainz, they pump the shit out of it for gainz.

This shit is a legit pyramid scheme.  I’m in on it so no ragrets. 
 

8 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

UAL up 5 percent because why not. I mean 4 percent of the people are flying compared to last year today.

Friend heading to Miami to work from his condo there vs cold af Chicago.  7 people on his flight.  He was only one in business.  Unreal.  

At this point, my plan is to hold on thru April ER season, lock some (re)gains @SPY>290 and be happy with -10% YTD if I'm lucky.

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

This shit is a legit pyramid scheme.  I’m in on it so no ragrets. 
 

Never misses a chance to remind us that he’s a major player. 

3 hours ago, stone oak said:

Gap up opening. This market dgaf.

Yeah, I wonder how many of their stores are actually open.  They were taking on water before all of this but they're up today.  M'kay.

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yeah, I wonder how many of their stores are actually open.  They were taking on water before all of this but they're up today.  M'kay.

Who needs to sell products when you can just sell equity

4 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Never misses a chance to remind us that he’s a major player. 

Wait, you’re not in the market?  I think your butthurt is showing.  

Edited by ChiTownDoc

On 4/6/2020 at 7:15 AM, aggie08 said:

Somehow I'm going to fuck around and end up buying back in at a higher point than I sold off. Because that's just my luck.

 

On 4/6/2020 at 7:25 AM, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol.  Still need another day even hotter than this before I’m coming in around where I left...and it’s one thing to get this bounce, it’s a whole other thing to not test lows again.  Would be only such recession ever, I don’t buy it.  

I'm going to need you to hold me.

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

 

I'm going to need you to hold me.

Other than dumbasses like TonyTexas, nobody here should get the impression I have shit figured out.  I just share info and we all do our best.  Going to cash  under 2800 was only part of the issue...I had already had a decent amount I wanted to 'dollar cost avg blah blah blah' in as well.  So for me at this point, I'll slowly start to dip in when we go under 2700 again.  

Also we are doing a rollup with our PE partner on the medical practice...we have great financials but banks are NOT cool with levering up to buy more groups on debt.  They were very cool with this 45 days ago.  Shit changes fast.  Anyways, I'll likely need some of my own coin to buy groups for this year until banks loosen up again.  In the grand scheme, I'd much rather things cool now vs 3-4 years when we want to go to market again.  Selling in Jan 2019 was pretty fucking lucky...and I'm counting on some luck again.  

So if you wanna ride with someone who's gotten a lot of breaks, I'm your guy.  If you want someone who has this market BS figured out, I'm definitely not your dude.  

And now we start to see how some of these companies plan on riding out the next couple of quarters of earnings calls:

Quote

Cisco Systems Inc. has joined Hewlett-Packard Enterprise Corp. in putting aside billions of dollars to send a big signal to its corporate customers: Don’t worry about your bills, just please stick around.

Cisco CSCO, +2.96% made $2.5 billion available through its financing arm Tuesday to keep customers buying its tech products during the COVID-19 pandemic, with payment reprieves until next year. That topped HP Enterprise Co.’s HPE, +1.59% $2 billion plan to help customers with their financial challenges.

Both tech giants are able to do this because they have large financing units. Both are offering 90-day payment holidays and no- or low-money down on tech purchases and upgrades.

Cisco and HPE are the first tech giants to offer customers payment reprieves as the coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the global economy, but they likely won’t be the last.

"Hey, we got orders. I'm sure we will get paid sometime!" Easier to pull off for the big players than others.

31 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Other than dumbasses like TonyTexas, nobody here should get the impression I have shit figured out.  

Believe me, I do not have the impression that you have shit figured out. 

The Nasdaq is where it was in December... 2019.

Yep.

18 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

AMZN numbers next week are going to be enormous. They need to split the stock.

No need, folks can just buy 1/16th fractional shares with their Robinhood account

 

But seriously, goddamn the faangm are impressive

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