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Featured Replies

41 minutes ago, BevoSwag said:

Yeah.  I can't get my head around the price of BA.  I mean all the carriers are going broke and no amount of government stimulus can save these suckers so how can BA continue to sell aircraft for the next few years.  I've traded BA a few times, usually at a loss because markets ignore facts.

As these airlines continue to lose money and shutter some operations, they need less planes. These fleets are old and only 3rd world airlines are going to buy them. This COVID thing will eventually be gone and the airlines that shed planes will need new planes.

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12 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

As these airlines continue to lose money and shutter some operations, they need less planes. These fleets are old and only 3rd world airlines are going to buy them. This COVID thing will eventually be gone and the airlines that shed planes will need new planes.

Yeah but since i'm over 80 I don't think I have enough time to wait that out :)

7 hours ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

Airlines losing billions!
LUV up 2%

Too big to fail, part 420.69. 

We will start getting q3 earnings reports, so company guidance will be interesting. Noticed the following this morning related to SAP:

Quote

SAP SE shares dropped as much as 21%, the biggest intraday fall since 1999, after the software company cut its revenue forecast for the full year and said it expects a fresh wave of lockdowns to hurt demand through the first half of 2021.

In a test for Christian Klein, who became sole chief executive officer in April, the pandemic will delay SAP’s goals for cloud revenue, overall sales and operating profit by one or two years, especially in hard-hit industries such as business travel, the Walldorf, Germany-based company said in a statement on Sunday. The drop in shares on Monday wiped 28 billion euros ($33.1 billion) off SAP’s market value.

The drop-off in SAP’s cloud revenue is a sign that companies are putting off making major decisions about updating their software, as the pandemic continues to limit any global economic recovery.

I think similarly positioned companies here in the US will start to echo these general sentiments. 1 year ago QQQ was at roughly 200. Pandemic still raging and the QQQ closed Friday around 285. Yeah there will be some pandemic outliers (ZM, PTON, etc), but I gotta believe its going to be harder and harder to present rosy forecasts for a large number of companies. 

4 hours ago, Blotto said:

We will start getting q3 earnings reports, so company guidance will be interesting. Noticed the following this morning related to SAP:

I think similarly positioned companies here in the US will start to echo these general sentiments. 1 year ago QQQ was at roughly 200. Pandemic still raging and the QQQ closed Friday around 285. Yeah there will be some pandemic outliers (ZM, PTON, etc), but I gotta believe its going to be harder and harder to present rosy forecasts for a large number of companies. 

Counterpoint:  SAP sucks shit through a straw.  Or maybe more precise SAP has a massive reputation for fuckshow implementations.  

10 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Counterpoint:  SAP sucks shit through a straw.  Or maybe more precise SAP has a massive reputation for fuckshow implementations.  

Subscribed. SAP is the equivalent of using a tank to kill a fly.

"Hey, we are in the middle of a SAP install...we know we owe you money but don't have any idea how much.  What do we have to send to not get cut-off?"

 

 

47 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

"Hey, we are in the middle of a SAP install...we know we owe you money but don't have any idea how much.  What do we have to send to not get cut-off?"

This is absolute truth. I think SAP is a money laundering operation...

14 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

This is absolute truth. I think SAP is a money laundering operation...

Ahh. So SAP has Wirecard’s “missing” $2 billion 

Had a leveraged short position against BBBY when it was trading around 14$. 

The motherfucker shot up to 20$ overnight from earnings...and then instead of deflating back down, it gapped up again to $23, and then continued climbing north of $25 over the course of 3 weeks. 

Took my lumps and exited my position yesterday around $24.  This morning it is -13% down. 

Just totally fuck my shit up fam

 

Edited by 52-80

I had a group of calls for December, so that's a yikes. Kind of tempted to hold until election to see how the market reacts.

On 10/16/2020 at 1:30 PM, closetohumping said:

Hypothetical:  close election, loser uses every available channel to delay the coronation of the winner, we could have a lot of uncertainty on who will be our president.  What happens to the market then?

Uh huh 

circuit breakers be like:   "yo, miss me yet?"

13 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

circuit breakers be like:   "yo, miss me yet?"

we aren't even close to circuit breakers - S&P down about 95, first circuit breaker today would be down 237, second would be down 441, final circuit breaker is down 678 - unless those are hit after 3:25 and then it is a free for all

2 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

we aren't even close to circuit breakers - S&P down about 95, first circuit breaker today would be down 237, second would be down 441, final circuit breaker is down 678 - unless those are hit after 3:25 and then it is a free for all

dont tempt fate man

On 10/14/2020 at 4:15 PM, Wally Fairway said:

Bigger balls and portfolio than I have, I'm dabbling in longer term calls on things doing well (or pure speculation) - COST, F, ALT, and a few others

 

On 10/14/2020 at 5:37 PM, 52-80 said:

why do you hate yourself?

Today is going to be a good day to unload 25% of my F calls (I already unloaded my ALT calls at a small loss, I reload those once it gets around $10)

we in a goddamn kangaroo market again or what

14 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

we in a goddamn kangaroo market again or what

Election year + Covid = FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK

The market seems twitchy about holding over the weekend, into the election.
No direction, lots of whipsawing action - the fed brrrrrrrr machine has been eerily silent of late

These assholes really tried to get it green during power hour. Getting a real "coiled" feeling here. I think if we have clear results Tuesday night, we're going up in a hurry.

23 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

The market seems twitchy about holding over the weekend, into the election.
No direction, lots of whipsawing action - the fed brrrrrrrr machine has been eerily silent of late

I knew that if Surly called out JPow he'd have to respond xD

These assholes really tried to get it green during power hour. Getting a real "coiled" feeling here. I think if we have clear results Tuesday night, we're going up in a hurry.
^^^I'll have what he's having.

This thing will climb for a few years strongly with a clear win and a vaccine in a few months. Doesn’t mean there won’t be volatility before.

5 minutes ago, troph said:

This thing will climb for a few years strongly with a clear win and a vaccine in a few months. Doesn’t mean there won’t be volatility before.

Once an event so predictable happens, you can bet it's already built in. 

Once an event so predictable happens, you can bet it's already built in. 

Only on the downside.

From a market person on close of October.

"October is over and stocks went out with a whimper. . . Markets were more volatile, largely from exogenous factors like the national elections and the coronavirus. And of course, that the story stocks are priced for fantasy. 

The US national election will be next Tuesday. 

Have a pleasant evening." 

 

https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com

 

6 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

the fed brrrrrrrr machine has been eerily silent of late

didn't they open the window wider for business easy loans this week?

Stimulus will come - after the election. The economy is heaving and it's time to inject the astroglide to get this old baby up and running. 

A lot of pain out there to be monetized - by Fed Policy (we saved your asses from the President™).

And it is time to rebuild.

 

5 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Maybe not.  Market is up like 4% pre shit show.

Pump before the dump? I feel like I'm getting played.

3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Pump before the dump? I feel like I'm getting played.

I feel like right now is the time to dump as it is rising.  Thoughts?

4 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

I feel like right now is the time to dump as it is rising.  Thoughts?

I'm in FULL FOMO

4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I'm in FULL FOMO

I got scared yesterday and sold some $BA an O&G stocks... mistake?

7 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I'm in FULL FOMO

I just feel like the loser tonight will delay the fuck out of the results.  That can't be good but hey , built in?

 

6 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I got scared yesterday and sold some $BA an O&G stocks... mistake?

Who fucking knows?!?!? 

4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Who fucking knows?!?!? 

I think $BA has a long road ahead but long term lots of upside. Just thinking uncertainty of the next week will give me an opportunity to buy back in lower and I'm trying to keep a good amount on the sideline to buy into stocks that take a dip.

Right now I'm probably over invested in o&g since it seems so cheap over the summer. But now that $80 a barrel is no where in sight.

8 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I think $BA has a long road ahead but long term lots of upside. Just thinking uncertainty of the next week will give me an opportunity to buy back in lower and I'm trying to keep a good amount on the sideline to buy into stocks that take a dip.

Right now I'm probably over invested in o&g since it seems so cheap over the summer. But now that $80 a barrel is no where in sight.

Like always, it is so fuckign hard to sell when the shit is steaming

whats the insider scoop on alijackma?

Any good options for some post election bukkake show hedging?  Was looking at some short term straddles e.g. SPY and they are expensive as a motherfucker. 

Question for the smart folks:

What is an MPI and is it just another repackaged life insurance contract investment thing?

40 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Which is odd as this is going to take a few days.  What do I know lol

Chaos is baked in.

18 hours ago, 52-80 said:

whats the insider scoop on alijackma?

per bloomberg

 

Quote

two weeks ago, Ma somehow found the time to opine on China’s banking system at a high-profile financial forum in Shanghai, once again throwing himself into the eye of the storm.

In that speech, apart from labeling the global banking Basel Accords as an “old people’s club,” Ma said “systemic risk” is not the issue in China. Rather, China’s biggest risk is that it “lacks a financial ecosystem.” Chinese banks are like “pawn shops”, where collateral and guarantees are the hard currencies. As a result, some decided to go so big they are not allowed to fail

 

3 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Chaos is baked in.

Yeah, it appears the market assumed this would be a giant cluster fuck and it's only a modest shit show. 

8 minutes ago, B00M said:

Yeah, it appears the market assumed this would be a giant cluster fuck and it's only a modest shit show. 

Set the bar low & you always surpass expectations.

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Set the bar low & you always surpass expectations.

words to live by.

16 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

words to live by.

Or not. I don't care. I'm not in charge of you.

I think the market's reacting to the GOP holding serve in Congress, particularly if the GOP is able to maintain an edge in the Senate. The prospects of significantly increased taxes and regulations are down when compared to pre-election prognostications. Bulls like divided government. So, the market is up considerably over the past couple of days.

1 minute ago, CDAK said:

I think the market's reacting to the GOP holding serve in Congress, particularly if the GOP is able to maintain an edge in the Senate. The prospects of significantly increased taxes and regulations are down when compared to pre-election prognostications. Bulls like divided government. So, the market is up considerably over the past couple of days.

No question. Gridlock in Washington means stability for business. No shocking changes. Wall Street loves that.

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