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  • That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

  • Rusty Shackelford
    Rusty Shackelford

  • I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Only idiots are +14% YTD.

 

We the geniuses sold off on Feb 12th at 3:59PM EST and  bought in exactly at March 18th and thus are +50% YTD

I was going to ask a dumbass question about interpreting performance literature for the blackrock S&P thing in my new work 401k. But it's just still not updated from Oct 30th, which was a bad time for 1month/3month S&P returns.

Personally I bought on the 12th and sold on the 18th. I'm all in on GE now - I just have a feeling 2021 is their year.

Alcohol fueled speculation:  stimulus bill failure = dramatic fed/treasury brrrt (biden/yellen) = #stonklyfe4ever

Historians are going to call our era the age of irrationality.

I don’t remember enough about the particular era of American history, but if someone said we were in a second gilded age the title would sound right.

21 hours ago, Celery Man said:

I don’t remember enough about the particular era of American history, but if someone said we were in a second gilded age the title would sound right.

I'm sure Armybrat can give you a firsthand account of the Gilded Age

More Brrrrrrrr coming and the Plague Cure is working as hoped. 2021 gonna be all like:
272c231f36effd87e3823ed39a684714.gif

41 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Where can we get some of that sweet aggregate cheese ?

Cash the $600 (or is it $2k?) when it comes from the Federal Government.

Just now, Parliament said:

Cash the $600 (or is it $2k?) when it comes from the Federal Government.

That’s not 14 trillion. 
where you hiding the rest from us ?

24 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Cash the $600 (or is it $2k?) when it comes from the Federal Government.

Are we all getting this round?

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Where can we get some of that sweet aggregate cheese ?

I think you guys found it already.  

Just make sure to hedge those bets. 

51 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Are we all getting this round?

Certainly, Surly 1%'ers will not qualify - but I'm going to use my stimulus money to put deposits on a couple of TSLA Cybertrucks and a couple of GM Hummers; probably just waste the rest.

I’m sure it’s going to be fine.
 

Is going to have a ton of CR type implications but most are blind to it. 

Since we can’t stop it, I guess we just take advantage of it, while protecting ourselves. 

10 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I’m sure it’s going to be fine.
 

Is going to have a ton of CR type implications but most are blind to it. 

Since we can’t stop it, I guess we just take advantage of it, while protecting ourselves. 

Looks like metals and bit coin might be the safest option.

Guns, gold, liquor, water, toilet paper, hookers

On 12/29/2020 at 1:33 AM, Wally Fairway said:

Certainly, Surly 1%'ers will not qualify - but I'm going to use my stimulus money to put deposits on a couple of TSLA Cybertrucks and a couple of GM Hummers; probably just waste the rest.

A fractional share of TSLA will go a long way (2 da moon)

9 hours ago, GRHorn said:

I’m sure it’s going to be fine.
 

Is going to have a ton of CR type implications but most are blind to it. 

Since we can’t stop it, I guess we just take advantage of it, while protecting ourselves. 

I agree 100 percent.  In history when this has happened inflation followed.  This seems different but I have no clue what is to come.  I suspect tangible assets like real estate are “safer” but who knows?  I feel no like the stock market in general is very overpriced but I’ve made a killing in stonk playing.  Are we still in TINA mode?  And for how much longer?

30 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I agree 100 percent.  In history when this has happened inflation followed.  This seems different but I have no clue what is to come.  I suspect tangible assets like real estate are “safer” but who knows?  I feel no like the stock market in general is very overpriced but I’ve made a killing in stonk playing.  Are we still in TINA mode?  And for how much longer?

I’m still taking advantage of it via being long tech while protecting myself via bitcoin. Probably will buy some land this year as well. Either river or beach type property. 

8 hours ago, GRHorn said:

I’m still taking advantage of it via being long tech while protecting myself via bitcoin. Probably will buy some land this year as well. Either river or beach type property. 

Buy third row so it’ll be second row for your kids and first row for your grandkids (no CR)

Didn't think this deserves its own thread: watch grain commodities. They're up for on account of Brazilian drought. A 2012 pattern is creaping into the US. That year was a historic drought here. Commodities generally do well during inflation and all the Brrrrr we have going you gotta wonder of inflation will light up some.

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Didn't think this deserves its own thread: watch grain commodities. They're up for on account of Brazilian drought. A 2012 pattern is creaping into the US. That year was a historic drought here. Commodities generally do well during inflation and all the Brrrrr we have going you gotta wonder of inflation will light up some.

if it's not frozen orange juice concentrates, we're not interested

Let's start the year off with a sell-off. Everyone good with that? Great.

sorry guys, I bought a few stocks last week so of course this would be the case.

Just now, Incredulity

sorry guys, I bought a few stocks last week so of course this would be the case.

After the gains of last year I figured there would be some liquidation of positions in the first trading day of the new year to avoid taxes on 2020 gains. At least I hope that’s all it is.

2 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

After the gains of last year I figured there would be some liquidation of positions in the first trading day of the new year to avoid taxes on 2020 gains. At least I hope that’s all it is.

I don’t think anyone believes that 2021 has any chance of lower tax rates than 2020.  Which would mean any tax motivated selling would have occurred prior to new year.

29 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I don’t think anyone believes that 2021 has any chance of lower tax rates than 2020.  Which would mean any tax motivated selling would have occurred prior to new year.

Time value of cash money though. 

Just now, Incredulity
2 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

After the gains of last year I figured there would be some liquidation of positions in the first trading day of the new year to avoid taxes on 2020 gains. At least I hope that’s all it is.

I don’t think anyone believes that 2021 has any chance of lower tax rates than 2020.  Which would mean any tax motivated selling would have occurred prior to new year.

I was thinking more along the lines of losses offsetting gains. If you had none in 2020, then it is advantageous to sell now to book gains against losses this year.

Markets appeared pleased about the prospects of a repub Senate 2 months ago ... So selloff coming?

Markets appeared pleased about the prospects of a repub Senate 2 months ago ... So selloff coming?

Futures turned green as GA results gained clarity.
5 hours ago, bluto said:


Futures turned green as GA results gained clarity.

NASDAQ looks like it's going to get hammered.

So much for that. To the moon we go!

The nice thing about digital currency is that you don't have to use a wheelbarrow to buy a loaf of bread.

48 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

The nice thing about digital currency is that you don't have to use a wheelbarrow to buy a loaf of bread.

Phillips Curve is dead. Fed should have told you up front.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2020-08-28/with-new-monetary-policy-approach-fed-lays-phillips-curve-to-rest

Quote

The relationship between inflation and employment was documented by A.W. Phillips, an economist from New Zealand who published a paper on the topic using British data on unemployment and wages from 1861 to 1957.

The concept became a key aspect of the Fed's decisions on interest rates, motivating officials to start raising borrowing costs when they feared that inflation could soon take off.

But policymakers and economists have noticed that the relationship between inflation and employment has weakened over the past several years.

For example, between 1960 and 1985, a one-percentage-point drop in the gap between the unemployment rate and what economists viewed to be the long-run level of unemployment, would lead inflation to grow by 0.18 percentage point as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, according to a 2018 analysis by the Washington-based Brookings Institution.

From 1986 to 2007, that effect was reduced to less than half of its previous impact and it "essentially disappeared" after 2008, the analysts wrote https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/08/21/the-hutchins-center-explains-the-phillips-curve.

That shift, known as the flattening of the Phillips curve, made the tool less useful for predicting inflation and making monetary policy decisions, said Karim Basta, chief economist for III Capital Management. "The main thing is that the Fed is not going to be preemptive in raising interest rates," Basta said. "It's going to be more reactive to actual inflation."

That shift gives the Fed more flexibility to make sure that all kinds of workers are benefiting from the economy before it begins to raise rates, Brusuelas said, nodding to the change in the Fed's statement saying that maximum employment should be "broad-based and inclusive."

"It's a good thing for the economy," he said. "It means we're going to have more people employed once we emerge from the current crisis."

 

 

I think Joe B wants to change the LTCG from 0/15/20 to 0/15/39.x

which i support tbh

15 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

I think Joe B wants to change the LTCG from 0/15/20 to 0/15/39.x

which i support tbh

I can see why people would support increasing LTCG (kinda) but why would you support LTCG be greater than ordinary income (top bracket 37%)? 

I don't think he would have the votes to do that. 

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

I think Joe B wants to change the LTCG from 0/15/20 to 0/15/39.x

which i support tbh

I would support it if they bumped the 15% income floor up significantly. We need to middle class to be invested in the markets more.

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

I think Joe B wants to change the LTCG from 0/15/20 to 0/15/39.x

which i support tbh

Let’s compromise at 25-30. 

Started a position today in MP. Largest rare Earth miner in Western Hemisphere. Will be critical going forward. Should also benefit from continued monetary expansion and resulting commodity boom.  

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