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  • That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

  • Rusty Shackelford
    Rusty Shackelford

  • I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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22 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I’ve built a pretty substantial position in ESV.   Starting to add some BP and CRZO for juice. 

 

I love GS grading at 6.2 P/E as well 

SLB is another option.  Less risky than ESV.  Less upside, too.  I may target some of my dollar cost $ there instead.

It's crazy that these stocks are 56% - 65% off their 1-year highs.  I'm all for timing the bottom but holy smokes oil is not going away tomorrow.

Obviously my comment about GS got autocorrected from some version of trading to grading.   Meh 

21 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

SLB is another option.  Less risky than ESV.  Less upside, too.  I may target some of my dollar cost $ there instead.

It's crazy that these stocks are 56% - 65% off their 1-year highs.  I'm all for timing the bottom but holy smokes oil is not going away tomorrow.

SLB is a fucking basket case ever since the current dipshit took over as CEO.  However even with that being said, the stock is way too cheap to pass up.  That’s not to say it won’t get cheaper, but at least you get a 5.5% dividend to wait it out.  I guess they could cut the dividend but I doubt they will.

Edited by Fudge Nuggets

Amateur hour in Washington. Mnuchin’s a world class dumbass. 

This morning banker told me that what Mnuchin did this weekend would be like Elaine Chao telling the media that she was calling up the CEOs of the airlines and asking them if planes in the air right now were gonna land ok.

34 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I have always read his name as “Munchkin”. 

One of my favorite "board"/card games

cover_lg.jpg

QQQ’s flopped green.  Dow trying to get there too.   Just need oil & natty to flip as well.   

Plunge Protection Team activated. 
I plunged your mom last night but I didn't use protection.

First trade to lose money for me in my small foray into swing trading. Bought some shares of dia at the end of day last Friday . Sold them thankfully into a small rally this morning. Bought at 224.11. Sold at 222.78. Still up in my accounts this year but doesn’t feel good to lose. A small lesson learned. 

Edited by UTGrad98

QQQ’s flopped green.  Dow trying to get there too.   Just need oil & natty to flip as well.   

Think the Dow closes above 22k? Looking shaky...
9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:


Think the Dow closes above 22k? Looking shaky...

Nope.   That rally got sold like a Thai hooker

44 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Nope.   That rally got sold like a Thai hooker

what is your best guess of the Dow low point? 18500?

4 minutes ago, NowThis said:

what is your best guess of the Dow low point? 18500?

Major breakout from ‘16 is right in the 17.9-18.3k range.    

export-V3R9y%20(1).1545663889377.png

So the s and p officially closed in bear market territory today. It marks the 3rd bear market since 2000 with the other 2 in 2000 and 2007 respectively . For those who have followed the market through those times, What are the differences and similarities to now?  My main concern is was the economy running like is it now back then as well? With economists stating not to panic and that unemployment is low , consumer spending is strong etc? 

 

I remember reading about Jamie dimon saying this next bear will be caused by bond issues. What did he mean by that? We have never had to navigate through QT before . Did we essentially kick the can down the road with 3 rounds of QE that we are just now starting to absorb?

Oil and natty getting rick-rolled after the market close.    Good Lord 

22 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

I predict the market will go back up at some point in the future. 

Huh, I predict that sometime in the future the market will go down. 

 

And for a limited time, surly posters can sign up for the Telegraph vs. Wally newsletter. Only $29.95/month, on sale today only for $9.95/month. Guaranteed to be right. 

 

5 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Amateur hour in Washington. Mnuchin’s a world class dumbass. 

Everyone knows Trump told him to call the banks and then get on TV this morning.

I'll Cloak Room this bitch up.  It really is astonishing.  The economy was doing fairly well going into 2017.  Don't fuck with a streak.  All Trump would have had to do is ride the wave and claim America was indeed great again.  Instead, he fucked with a streak.

What you have here is a classic instance of more sellers than buyers....

8 hours ago, Tailgate said:

What’s happened in the past after brutal quarters in the market?

Saw this on another board copied from a Marketwatch story. Here is the link:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-the-stock-market-has-fared-after-similarly-brutal-losses-in-a-quarter-2018-12-24

3e718f79229b64ffdda80460de4648e3.jpg

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So December is 0.9% away from being in the top (bottom) 10 - or one more comment by Mnuchin/Trump, the Fed, or a snowflake falling on a butterflies wings in Tokyo changing the weather in California.

So basically as long as we are not entering a second great depression then equities will be up over the next 12/36/60 months.  Buy!

No, this is a repricing [mention=546]UTGrad98[/mention]

However - you can sell 240 January 22 SPY puts for about $7 at this moment. 

What that means in simple terms is that you would be paid $700 today, and if SPY hits 240 between now and January 22, you would have a round lot of 100 shares of SPY put to you for $24000. 

Sound dangerous? It sort of is, but not as dangerous as it might seem, for a couple of reasons.

First, if the market moves the other direction without hitting 240, the option will become much cheaper much faster as volatility contracts, and you can buy the put back for less than you were paid, and you pocket the difference for having held the risk for a short time. You can also roll it forward, or down (or up) to avoid being assigned shares, or even buy a put below your strike price to limit your downside. This last is called a "vertical put spread", and I used to specialize in this kind of trade when I traded options regularly. This strategy limits the risk you are underwriting , making it a conservative income strategy even in weird market conditions.

But lets say you don't do any of that - let's say you write a put, naked, with unlimited exposure, the market falls,  and the shares are put to you. That means you own a very high quality, diverse, low fee ETF at a discount, in a down market, and you can hold on to it until sale would generate a profit. 

So - 5 days later, the market is up, and the price of this option has dropped from open at 9.44, and currently trades (as of this moment) at 6.89. So, if I'm nervous I can buy the put back and keep $20. Or, I can let it ride and let time and movement devalue the put.

But either way - the underlying issue hit $234 on christmas day, so worst case: if the shares were put to me I effectively wound up buying SPY at 233, and it now trades at 240.

 

 

Holy shit.  We may finish up over 1000 pts today on the Dow. Nas up over 300 pts for a 5.1% gain.  

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

Holy shit.  We may finish up over 1000 pts today on the Dow. Nas up over 300 pts for a 5.1% gain.  

Dude....your gonna jinx it....

19 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

How do I go long on volatility?

First you take a couple finance courses...

4 minutes ago, SDG said:

First you take a couple finance courses...

You mean those courses where they teach you about things like the dividend discount model? 

This is a classic convergence of more buyers than sellers....

Edited by gecko

44 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

You mean those courses where they teach you about things like the dividend discount model? 

That's one of many valuation techniques.  You asked about volatility and many intro to finance courses talk about it.  If you want to cheat though there are discussions in this very thread you can go back and review.  Cough "vix" is an easy one.  

Edited by SDG

 

15 hours ago, gecko said:

What you have here is a classic instance of more sellers than buyers....

 

2 minutes ago, gecko said:

This is a classic convergence of more buyers than sellers....

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