Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Surly Horns

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

Featured Replies

11 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

24C8070A-F51B-433B-A355-7ECA5066C039.jpeg.3547cbeb190979b437c7fb17dec18a0f.jpeg

Shouldve backed up the Ford Ranger

845007F0-51A3-4FAD-B909-A2547E32C3FA.jpeg

  • Replies 18.1k
  • Views 1.4m
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

  • That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

  • Rusty Shackelford
    Rusty Shackelford

  • I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

Posted Images

On 3/25/2022 at 1:29 PM, 52-80 said:

Bought some calls on 20y treasury bond etf (tlt). 
 

its been taking a shit since all the expectations of increased interest rates. But because the bonds themselves have taken a shit, some institutions and funds might have to buy into them in a rebalance, even if discretionary traders are bearish on them

Seems to me that any rebalancing would trigger bond sales not buys. Assuming they are maintaining the same allocation, the big decline in the stock portion of the portfolio would necessitate buying more equities and selling bonds to maintain ratios.  Now if your talking reallocation, that’s a different story. 

21 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Seems to me that any rebalancing would trigger bond sales not buys. Assuming they are maintaining the same allocation, the big decline in the stock portion of the portfolio would necessitate buying more equities and selling bonds to maintain ratios.  Now if your talking reallocation, that’s a different story. 

Going into end of Q1 it was bonds with twice the decline, if using SPY/TLT as proxies. E.g. 60/40 exposure fund wouldve bought more bonds

3 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Going into end of Q1 it was bonds with twice the decline, if using SPY/TLT as proxies. E.g. 60/40 exposure fund wouldve bought more bonds

Rebalancing usually happens quarterly so you need to look at results since April 1. SPY is down 14.7%. TLT down 11.3%. 

48 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Rebalancing usually happens quarterly so you need to look at results since April 1. SPY is down 14.7%. TLT down 11.3%. 

Quoted post was from end of March. YTD at that point for SPY was -5% and TLT -10%

9 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Shouldve backed up the Ford Ranger

845007F0-51A3-4FAD-B909-A2547E32C3FA.jpeg

I was drunk shit-posting

0094BDFF-AF08-453F-89C2-4E9B4A9B181E.gif.b94308d2d2048ef2b91c16c9fd2f9da2.gif

You digital charts confuse me, and the invisible spirits who change the numbers frighten me!

14 hours ago, workswithseed said:

Screenshot_20220521-184158.png

And that woman will be richer than all of us on this thread in 10 years with that sort of investment discipline. 

1 hour ago, hornian said:

And that woman will be richer than all of us on this thread in 10 years with that sort of investment discipline. 

I was going to say.  I get the joke, but she's savvy. Might was well start spec'ing an Aventador now. 

Today's bump made it seem like a good time to sell a couple of SPY 6/17 calls. 

And while I'm at it why not invest the proceeds in dinner 6/17 SPY puts.

What could go wrong? Time will tell

On 5/19/2022 at 4:09 PM, Captainant said:

back in economic terms: reverse repo markets (AKA - free floating money in the economy with zero velocity) hit a record high of $1,981,005,000,000

The stagflation is a comin, lads.

Fun update - NEW RECORD! There's now $2,044,658,000,000 of idle unused money in the economy. Gotta love greed for the sake of greed!

8 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Today's bump made it seem like a good time to sell a couple of SPY 6/17 calls. 

And while I'm at it why not invest the proceeds in dinner 6/17 SPY puts.

What could go wrong? Time will tell

Avatar checks out.

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Since the publication of this article in Aug'21, RRP has nearly doubled the amount of money that's stagnant. The author sunshine pumped that "market conditions will normalize by the end of this year (2021)", which I think I'm going to have to disagree with in hindsight lol

On 5/20/2022 at 8:54 AM, Trey3216 said:

Not in a treasury.  You'd basically be buying the bond at below par, collecting coupon payments ever 6 months, and having a YTM at 6-8%.  You'd never get a US Treasury issued with a 6-8% coupon.  

For hs graduation in the 80s, I was given a five-year CD at 9.375.

23 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Today's bump made it seem like a good time to sell a couple of SPY 6/17 calls. 

And while I'm at it why not invest the proceeds in dinner 6/17 SPY puts.

What could go wrong? Time will tell

This could be addicting, up $1,850 on a net investment of about $800, in one day.

What could go wrong, in gonna try it again when there is an irrational bounce. So maybe tomorrow or sometime next week. Risk be damned!

You can tell the market is heading for a downturn when insurance companies fight you less when making a claim. They aren't making as much money by dragging things out.

On 5/24/2022 at 12:37 PM, Wally Fairway said:

This could be addicting, up $1,850 on a net investment of about $800, in one day.

What could go wrong, in gonna try it again when there is an irrational bounce. So maybe tomorrow or sometime next week. Risk be damned!

I doubt volatility will subside much until we see sustained improvement on the inflation front, so I expect 1-2% swings in the markets fairly frequently as the algos do what they do. I fucked around this week and doubled up on a couple of  NVDA options plays. I told myself I was done and to bank the profits,  but with todays rally, I said fuck it and threw the profits at NVDA $160 puts expiring 6/3. Earnings are this afternoon and my hunch is that they will beat numbers but warn for the next qtr or two and we know how that has been going for the tech companies. Holding NVDA puts going into earnings would have been unthinkable for me the last couple of years, but these are different times. Its house money so it wont hurt quite so bad when I wake up tomorrow and see they are trading for $0.05 ($6.15 cost). Wheeeeeeeeeeee!

49 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I doubt volatility will subside much until we see sustained improvement on the inflation front, so I expect 1-2% swings in the markets fairly frequently as the algos do what they do. I fucked around this week and doubled up on a couple of  NVDA options plays. I told myself I was done and to bank the profits,  but with todays rally, I said fuck it and threw the profits at NVDA $160 puts expiring 6/3. Earnings are this afternoon and my hunch is that they will beat numbers but warn for the next qtr or two and we know how that has been going for the tech companies. Holding NVDA puts going into earnings would have been unthinkable for me the last couple of years, but these are different times. Its house money so it wont hurt quite so bad when I wake up tomorrow and see they are trading for $0.05 ($6.15 cost). Wheeeeeeeeeeee!

this is the way
sincerely - Mando

bingo-tarantino.gif

Quote

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares dropped sharply in extended trading on Wednesday after the chipmaker reported strong first-quarter results but issued weak guidance for the upcoming quarter.

For the period ending May 1, the Jensen Huang-led Nvidia (NVDA) said it earned $1.36 per share on $8.29 billion in sales, up 46% year-over-year, thanks to "record revenue in Data Center and Gaming."

A consensus of Wall Street analysts expected Nvidia (NVDA) to earn $1.30 per share on $8.09 billion in sales.

However, the Santa Clara, California-based company said it expects second-quarter sales to be $8.1 billion, well below the $8.44 billion analysts were expecting. Nvidia (NVDA) attributed the shortfall to roughly a $500 million decline due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Covid-related lockdowns in China.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares plunged more than 9% to $154.02 on back of the results. Competitor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) followed suit, falling more than 2.5% to $90.09 after the report.

Will have to read what they say on their earnings call, but I think this will be a common refrain as for the next 3-6 months.

Edit - looks like NVDA is rallying somewhat, but worst case I should at least be able to get out tomorrow for a profit.

Edit #2 - what a kick in the nuts, got the prediction right, market didnt care. Had to sell at $3.50 in the morning basically wiping out half my profits from my earlier trades in the week. Its a shame you cant trade options after hours like you can the underlying. Oh well, on to the next one....

Edited by Blotto

S&P up 2% today.  Is sell the bounce the new buy the dip?

On 5/23/2022 at 2:11 PM, Wally Fairway said:

Today's bump made it seem like a good time to sell a couple of SPY 6/17 calls. 

And while I'm at it why not invest the proceeds in 6/17 SPY puts.

What could go wrong? Time will tell

Time will only tell how closely I called the bottom.
Looks like it could be an expensive call

Spy 410. Last time it made it to 409 and shot right back down to 380. Hopefully we can break above over the next few trading days. 

I'm guessing it's a sneaky little bear market rally.  hopefully it's a typical one and lasts a few weeks or longer.  going to get everyone all comfortable like to re-invest.....  and then steal whatever money they have left.

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Time will only tell how closely I called the bottom.
Looks like it could be an expensive call

Agreed, right now we're just killing time until the next meaningful data is released. monthly CPI data, quarterly GDP (and subsequent revisions), employment figures. April inflation wasnt great and fuel prices have only increased since then. A lot of companies are warning about next quarters numbers, will they do the same next time around. The Fed still hasnt really done much in terms of rates and QE, so what effects will that actually have? We're still in the early innings of this thing IMO. way too early to tell if we have a winning strategy or a losing strategy.

Supply chain issues are still fucking things up as well. I heard an interview with the Intel CEO from Davos and he was pretty clear that he didnt see the chip supply chain issues returning to what we could consider normal until 2024. Maybe he's just posturing to get Congress to move on the $50 billion semiconductor bill, but its probably not getting better in 2022. 

I’m going to ape real hard, I’m going to buy 30k worth of tech stocks in the morning. On margin. Because I have been fully invested since Feb. 

apple, google, Amazon or Tesla. 

Edited by ATexanAbroad

I'm guessing it's a sneaky little bear market rally.  hopefully it's a typical one and lasts a few weeks or longer.  going to get everyone all comfortable like to re-invest.....  and then steal whatever money they have left.

This


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

wish me luck boys, I will ride this upswing. Hopefully it continues until the splits happen.

Screen Shot 2022-05-27 at 10.37.43 AM.png

Edited by ATexanAbroad

still waiting to become filthy rich once the RSX starts trading again 😆

IMO - it will be interesting to see if the markets close on an up note for the month, or if there is selling to clean up some fund holdings; end of the quarter next month will be even more interesting as holdings will be window dressed. 

It's a shame that due to crushing inflation that no one had any money to go see Top Gun.

Consumer is fine.

10 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

It's a shame that due to crushing inflation that no one had any money to go see Top Gun.

Consumer is fine.

Going to the movies is a lot cheaper than taking the family on a vacation

As to your point, overall ticket sales were down for the same weekend compared to last year. 

Edited by ChickenSandwich

23 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Going to the movies is a lot cheaper than taking the family on a vacation

As to your point, overall ticket sales were down for the same weekend compared to last year. 

It's a shame that no one is flying or going to Disney because they saw Top Gun.

11 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

It's a shame that due to crushing inflation that no one had any money to go see Top Gun.

Consumer is fine.

Family buys $10 movie ticket. Declares recession over. 
 

Current economic situation may be good for Hollywood. 

In 2008 box office sales were strong. Cheap activities thrive during a downturn. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/01/movies/01films.html

Edited by ChickenSandwich

On 6/1/2022 at 7:56 AM, ChickenSandwich said:

Family buys $10 movie ticket. Declares recession over. 
 

Current economic situation may be good for Hollywood. 

In 2008 box office sales were strong. Cheap activities thrive during a downturn. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/01/movies/01films.html

Buy AMC stocks you say?  

4 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said:

The S&P’s going to 4400-4500, but it’s going back sub 4000 following that until we get capitulation from the market.

Ouija Messer GIF

Spy 430 ish is when I sell this latest run (or if my trailing stop loss hits) . I agree we have not had capitulation but that may not come until next year. Still kicking myself for not putting in more at 380. I bought a fair amount but I originally had a much bigger buy ready but I pussied out as is per the norm for me. I will say I am taking on much more risk than I have previously and am up high single digits in my money market account since January of this year just following and betting on  big resistance points. 

Nothing but baseless speculation, but I think we mostly churn with a slight positive direction over the summer. Then once the big swinging dicks return from their coke fueled orgies in the Hamptons we resume crash mode. 

my notes also say "Elon, STFU and focus on making cars."

looking at money market balance from a recent liquidation, glad I didn't place any buy orders this morning.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.