Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Surly Horns

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

Featured Replies

Wrong thread 

Edited by Dr. Teeth

  • Replies 18.1k
  • Views 1.4m
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

  • That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

  • Rusty Shackelford
    Rusty Shackelford

  • I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

Posted Images

On 10/15/2022 at 3:59 AM, 52-80 said:

Too busy snorting cocaine instead of executing a well thought out investment strategy smdh

Maybe that is my strategy 

3 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Maybe that is my strategy 

I mean, up until 2022, you could do pretty decent with that strategy lol

Market's quiet today.  What all are you guys up to?

 

Edited by Parliament

Same as any other day in the market. Nothing. Occasionally buying a little every few weeks. 

12 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Market's quiet today.  What all are you guys up to?

 

Perusing yacht listings.

Check back later in the month.

6 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Perusing yacht listings.

Check back later in the month.

Pro tip if you go for the sailing yachts you can save money - a lot of money - and you can appear to be more sophisticated, win win for attracting the ladies. 

Up 6.2% from the lows the morning that the inflation report came out. 

Thin liquidity/high volatility = hot flashes

The Fed demands capitulation. 
DFDBFB2B-946A-4EB5-A585-15A822B1C9B5.jpeg.3217b4abb1decb7aea6f0e295923166d.jpeg

35 years ago today - Black Monday a true market meltdown, it was the end of the financial system if the SEC, Fed and others didn't step up and make changes. Everyone knows that the markets fell over 500 points or 20%, but it was the commodity/futures markets that almost didn't open on Tuesday was where the real crisis was eventually averted. And there was no internet, so I heard it driving from my office in Greenway Plaza downtown for a lunch. 

In today's market that would be a one day decline of  6,000+ points in the Dow - there are no memes to properly reflect that 

3 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

35 years ago today - Black Monday a true market meltdown, it was the end of the financial system if the SEC, Fed and others didn't step up and make changes. Everyone knows that the markets fell over 500 points or 20%, but it was the commodity/futures markets that almost didn't open on Tuesday was where the real crisis was eventually averted. And there was no internet, so I heard it driving from my office in Greenway Plaza downtown for a lunch. 

In today's market that would be a one day decline of  6,000+ points in the Dow - there are no memes to properly reflect that 

I was a young punk so thankfully didn't have any money to lose but imagine that now in our nonstop media world. The 2008 crash was bad enough but at least that was slow motion relatively. 

 

15 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

35 years ago today - Black Monday a true market meltdown, it was the end of the financial system if the SEC, Fed and others didn't step up and make changes. Everyone knows that the markets fell over 500 points or 20%, but it was the commodity/futures markets that almost didn't open on Tuesday was where the real crisis was eventually averted. And there was no internet, so I heard it driving from my office in Greenway Plaza downtown for a lunch. 

In today's market that would be a one day decline of  6,000+ points in the Dow - there are no memes to properly reflect that 

Man to have been short that day...

I was a sophomore at UT. I remember seeing it on the news and thinking wow that’s probably not good. Then I probably shrugged it off and went and got blotto drunk that night. As I did most nights back then.

5 hours ago, Parliament said:

Man to have been short that day...

That's pretty much how Paul Tudor Jones made a name for himself.

On 10/17/2022 at 11:34 AM, Incredulity said:

Perusing yacht listings.

Check back later in the month.

Put deposit down on a triple deck

 

Hey Everybody Golf GIF by Rodney Dangerfield

On 10/19/2022 at 10:34 AM, Parliament said:

Man to have been short that day...

Maybe it is next Monday this time around.....are you short?

3 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Maybe it is next Monday this time around.....are you short?

Sad Cry GIF by MOODMAN

Anybody else get their shorts purchased for next wk? This green will not go without pain!

Rumor of the Fed only raising rates .5 (instead of .75) stokes the markets.  When JPow drops the .75 hammer, we will hear the lamentation of the women.

59 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Rumor of the Fed only raising rates .5 (instead of .75) stokes the markets.  When JPow drops the .75 hammer, we will hear the lamentation of the women.

I don't think it was so much a rumor of only .5, it was one of the Fed Governors saying not to assume that they'll just automatically do .75 every month until they hit their target and there is likely to be a slowdown in rate increases from a likely .75 in November to .5 to .25 in future months before pausing.

Also talked a lot about the dangers of tightening too fast or too much based on lagging indicators and causing more pain than necessary. 

It was enough to soothe fears for today at least.

15 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

I don't think it was so much a rumor of only .5, it was one of the Fed Governors saying not to assume that they'll just automatically do .75 every month until they hit their target and there is likely to be a slowdown in rate increases from a likely .75 in November to .5 to .25 in future months before pausing.

Also talked a lot about the dangers of tightening too fast or too much based on lagging indicators and causing more pain than necessary. 

It was enough to soothe fears for today at least.

 

It doesn’t make a shit.

When Powell gets on the mike and says, “fuck your calls” its on.  In the bad direction.

The election is Nov 8th. Next fed meeting is Nov 1-2. Early voting has started in parts of the US. My gut tells me fed talk will be more subdued until after the election. There is probably some not so subtle conversations going on from the admin to the fed and why wouldn't they. Being wrong on this will not be great for my portfolio but thats where my mind is. Regardless I am taking profits again if the market approaches the 200 day moving average as that is where the summer rally fizzled and my personal opinion is this is another bear market rally we have started. 

I'm still on the don't fight the fed bandwagon. And sitting on the sidelines in any capacity will now be netting you 4-5% over the next year. 

Just to rant, I'm still pissed at reading for decades how a 60/40 portfolio stocks and bonds is a nice hedge for a downtown. The bond funds I had in my 401k were down 9% when I moved that portion back into stocks. Never again. Going forward I am either stocks or cash for the rest of my life. There will be no bonds in my portfolio. Why would I if I view that percent of my retirement as conservative. Full disclosure I was 80/20 when I made the move. Everyone who pushes bonds can get fucked. What is their use? 

I just got paid for my part-time gig job driving truck. Gonna buy puts. Yolo.  If it works you guys can come visit me on my yacht.  I'll even comp the blow.

On 10/22/2022 at 10:04 AM, Parliament said:

I just got paid for my part-time gig job driving truck. Gonna buy puts. Yolo.  If it works you guys can come visit me on my yacht.  I'll even comp the blow.

good luck - if I was posting that it would be a surefire sign the market has bottomed 

4 hours ago, Parliament said:

Well don't jinx me thx.

I hope you didn't buy all at once, you could be buying a 2nd tranche of those puts at a much better price today.

50 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Bro do you even dollar/cost average?

every fucking paycheck - just like all the other regular slobs in working america

On 10/22/2022 at 6:53 AM, UTGrad98 said:

Just to rant, I'm still pissed at reading for decades how a 60/40 portfolio stocks and bonds is a nice hedge for a downtown. 

I've been 100% US equities* for 20 years and see no reason to change. Basic thesis is that the USA is still the best combination of political stability, demographics, and environment for corporate growth/profits. Nothing else comes close imo.

 

*: I cheated once and had an international fund for 6 months. That was a mistake.

So what is everybody's guess as to why the market is going up, or really anybody's guess?

- more TINA, the rest of the world is in worse economic shitstorm than the US
- just a melt-up before the next big crash
- smart money/dumb money think more upside return than downside risk (ps - there is no smart money)
- the more it goes up, the more people have FOMO disease, it is very contagious
- thinking the Fed is doing to pull a surprise slowdown in interest rate increases after the election
- like most other market moves, who really knows what is going on
- the group think driven there are no black swan events on the horizon (ps - there never are until it already happens)

23 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

So what is everybody's guess as to why the market is going up, or really anybody's guess?

- more TINA, the rest of the world is in worse economic shitstorm than the US
- just a melt-up before the next big crash
- the more it goes up, the more people have FOMO disease, it is very contagious
- the group think driven there are no black swan events on the horizon (ps - there never are until it already happens)

Edited by Hefeweizen
Quoted the ones I think. I do think this is a fools gold rally.

3 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

I do think this is a fools gold rally

Met with our financial planner a couple of weeks ago for our regular 6 month meeting. She said the pundits thought there would be a bit of a rally, but that it would still be up and down, but more up than down until after the beginning of the year. Then we'd have another big drop and it would go for 6 months in a row to hit what most people define as a recession. Then at the end of 23, middle of 24, there will be a huge rally and everything lost will be made up and then some. We are looking to retire in 2025, so if they/she are right we will time things really well. 

  • Popular Post

Wow, that’s quite a crystal ball your lady has there. 

It’s almost like she’s telling him exactly what he needs to hear to not have him rock the boat…

FWiW I work at a VERY large company and we’re expecting much of the same, with a Q3/Q4 ‘24 uptick after some shit between now and then.

9 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

Met with our financial planner a couple of weeks ago for our regular 6 month meeting. She said the pundits thought there would be a bit of a rally, but that it would still be up and down, but more up than down until after the beginning of the year. Then we'd have another big drop and it would go for 6 months in a row to hit what most people define as a recession. Then at the end of 23, middle of 24, there will be a huge rally and everything lost will be made up and then some. We are looking to retire in 2025, so if they/she are right we will time things really well. 

She also said take Texas and the points.

We’re doing our forecasting right now in business and it’s going to be a flat year, maybe even down slightly - single digits.  That is after ten percent plus growth since 2010.  So yeah it’s a full on recession and it’s going to last a year.  2023 will probably still suck.  But I think 3q or 4q will start to accelerate.  
 

I do think interest rates are going to be the lagging indicator for recovery so the Fed is going to be chasing them down too far just like they chased them up too slowly.

1 hour ago, Party_Taco said:

It’s almost like she’s telling him exactly what he needs to hear to not have him rock the boat…

FWiW I work at a VERY large company and we’re expecting much of the same, with a Q3/Q4 ‘24 uptick after some shit between now and then.

Nah, we're not boat rockers. We're buying low and in it for the long run. We've been with her for several years and she's really she's really up-front and straightforward about the situation. She's also a friend, so we know her outside of the investment world. We always plan for the worst and while we have a nice amount of money with her, we don't have enough that she's going to get rich off what she can convince us to give her. We've actually changed retirement dates a couple of times and she just reworked everything and gave us our new numbers. I've heard horror stories about financial planners, but we've luckily never experienced that. 

Lol. Nobody knows shit. Just as well off asking about "Texas and the points" as Cheeseweasel said.

 

EUR/USD futures finally touched 1.000 today.  ive been getting beat up on it hoping for a EUR recovery .

Google disappoints. Stock down 6%. YouTube actually showed revenue down year over year.

Chipotle reports pretty solid despite a number of price increases.

 

Very interested to see what happens with major tech. Google, Meta, Apple, etc. seem to be reaching saturation. Google trades at a multiple of 19. Apple trades at 25. Meta trades at 11.5. For reference, P&G trades at 22. 3M trades at 16.

There will always be growth avenues that maybe we aren't seeing today, but seems safe to assume that they've had their growth run. Are these about to turn into cash-flow monsters that just pay big dividends and buyback shares?

Edited by FirstTimeCaller

Much of the recovery will depend on what breaks and contagion risk. The financial advisor is providing a consensus opinion: Bear rally/ies then capitulation drop.

If one listens to Nouriel Roubini, expect a Doomsday as a result of the Fed blinking. (I think he is just selling his new book). 
 

Met with our financial planner a couple of weeks ago for our regular 6 month meeting. She said the pundits thought there would be a bit of a rally, but that it would still be up and down, but more up than down until after the beginning of the year. Then we'd have another big drop and it would go for 6 months in a row to hit what most people define as a recession. Then at the end of 23, middle of 24, there will be a huge rally and everything lost will be made up and then some. We are looking to retire in 2025, so if they/she are right we will time things really well. 

LOL.

If she could time the market, she certainly wouldn’t be wasting her time telling other people. She’d be on a private beach somewhere.

Newsflash; she doesn’t know shit. Just like everybody else.
Google disappoints. Stock down 6%. YouTube actually showed revenue down year over year.

Chipotle reports pretty solid despite a number of price increases.
 
Very interested to see what happens with major tech. Google, Meta, Apple, etc. seem to be reaching saturation. Google trades at a multiple of 19. Apple trades at 25. Meta trades at 11.5. For reference, P&G trades at 22. 3M trades at 16.
There will always be growth avenues that maybe we aren't seeing today, but seems safe to assume that they've had their growth run. Are these about to turn into cash-flow monsters that just pay big dividends and buyback shares?

Q1 is gonna be a bloodbath for big tech, but Q3/A4 could be spicy if you’re ready to pounce after Christmas.
On 10/24/2022 at 1:45 PM, Viking said:

I've been 100% US equities* for 20 years and see no reason to change. Basic thesis is that the USA is still the best combination of political stability, demographics, and environment for corporate growth/profits. Nothing else comes close imo.

 

*: I cheated once and had an international fund for 6 months. That was a mistake.

Best nugget I heard when I first started was the biggest US companies are international so there’s no reason for actually going international with your picks. Probably close minded and riddled with poor examples, but I always believed it

Bought 271 puts on qqq Friday with exp tomorrow, gonna be race to the finish line tomorrow with all the tech earnings crashing today. Rolling them dice. 

12 hours ago, txduck87 said:

Newsflash; she doesn’t know shit. Just like everybody else.

Bullshit. I've come up with a foolproof way to beat the market. I call it the Reverse Wally Stock Plan. Subscribe to my newsletter for more information.

9 hours ago, bluto said:

Bought 271 puts on qqq Friday with exp tomorrow, gonna be race to the finish line tomorrow with all the tech earnings crashing today. Rolling them dice. 

Lulz naaaaht

15 hours ago, bluto said:

We moving Meta into the stonk thread after today? 

It was always a stonk. It just dressed much nicer than IBRX.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.